@article{mitchell_pearce_2020, title={HOW DID UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AFFECT ECONOMIC FORECASTS?}, volume={38}, ISSN={["1465-7287"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85070491283&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1111/coep.12440}, abstractNote={We study how unconventional monetary policy announcements affected professional forecasters' predictions of bond rates, gross domestic product growth and inflation using data from the monthly survey by the Wall Street Journal. We find that unconventional monetary policy (UMP) announcements moved predicted bond rates in the direction the Fed intended. UMP announcements had differential impacts on forecasters' predictions; they also tended to move growth and inflation predictions in directions opposite those the Fed intended due to Fed information effects. A policy implication of our study is that the Fed should communicate economic projections to the public separately from monetary policy announcements to mitigate Fed information effects. (JEL E52, E58)}, number={1}, journal={CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2020}, month={Jan}, pages={206–220} } @article{altunok_mitchell_pearce_2020, title={The trade credit channel and monetary policy transmission: Empirical evidence from US panel data}, volume={78}, ISSN={["1878-4259"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85084150058&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1016/j.qref.2020.03.001}, abstractNote={We investigate the US trade credit channel proposed by Meltzer (1960). We estimate reduced-form trade credit supply and demand models on quarterly firm-level data for most public corporations from 1988 to 2007. We use a novel method of distinguishing firms by access to funds using the indexes of Whited and Wu (2006) and Altman (1968). Tight monetary policy produced greater expansion of receivables than payables, expansion of receivables that varied by funds-access, and some expansion of payables by firms with poor access. Tight policy produced expansion of net trade credit by corporations which flowed to entities like private businesses, a major component of the channel.}, journal={QUARTERLY REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE}, author={Altunok, Fatih and Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2020}, month={Nov}, pages={226–250} } @article{mitchell_pearce_2017, title={Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters}, volume={84}, ISSN={["2325-8012"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85029381674&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1002/soej.12236}, abstractNote={We provide evidence on the sticky‐information model of Mankiw and Reis () by examining how often individual professional forecasters revise their forecasts. We draw interest rate and unemployment rate forecasts from the monthly Wall Street Journal surveys. We find evidence that forecasters frequently leave forecasts unchanged but revise more often the larger the changes in the information set; additionally, the information sensitivity of revision frequencies increased after 2007. We also find that, on average, forecasters in our sample revise more frequently than found in previous research but that revised forecasts are not consistently more accurate.}, number={2}, journal={SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2017}, month={Oct}, pages={637–653} } @article{mitchell_2015, title={Bank dependency and banker directors}, volume={41}, ISSN={0307-4358}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/mf-05-2014-0136}, DOI={10.1108/mf-05-2014-0136}, abstractNote={ Purpose – Directors play a hard-to-quantify but critical role in the success of corporations. Outside directors supplement the firm-specific knowledge of inside directors by providing expertise and monitoring. Prior research finds that outside directors who are commercial bankers can be both beneficial and costly to large, non-financial corporations. Smaller, bank-dependent corporations should benefit more than large firms from the services banker directors provide, but may also be more prone to the costs they can impose. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of bank dependency on appointments of banker directors. }, number={8}, journal={Managerial Finance}, publisher={Emerald}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn}, year={2015}, month={Aug}, pages={825–844} } @article{mitchell_pearce_2011, title={Lending technologies, lending specialization, and minority access to small-business loans}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1573-0913"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-80052959059&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1007/s11187-009-9243-1}, number={3}, journal={SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMICS}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2011}, month={Oct}, pages={277–304} } @article{mitchell_pearce_2009, title={Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule?}, volume={34}, ISSN={1055-0925 1938-9744}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12197-009-9085-3}, DOI={10.1007/s12197-009-9085-3}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Economics and Finance}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2009}, month={May}, pages={196–217} } @article{mitchell_pearce_2009, title={Economic Forecasters and Okun’s Law}, volume={57}, journal={Journal of Musashi University}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K}, year={2009}, month={Dec}, pages={25–52} } @article{mitchell_pearce_2007, title={Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists}, volume={29}, ISSN={["0164-0704"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-35549002544&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1016/j.jmacro.2005.11.004}, abstractNote={We analyze economists' forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates from the Wall Street Journal. We find that a majority of economists produced unbiased forecasts but that none predicted directions of changes more accurately than chance. Most economists' forecast accuracy is statistically indistinguishable from a random walk model in forecasting the Treasury bill rate, but many are significantly worse in forecasting the Treasury bond rate and the exchange rate. We also find systematic forecast heterogeneity, support for strategic models predicting the industry employing the economist matters, and evidence that economists deviate less from the consensus as they age.}, number={4}, journal={JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2007}, month={Dec}, pages={840–854} } @article{mitchell_pearce_2006, title={Can Business Economists Predict Interest Rate or Exchange Rate Movements?}, volume={10}, number={6}, journal={Corporate Finance Review}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas}, year={2006}, pages={15–27} } @book{pearce_mitchell_2005, place={Washington, DC}, series={Small Business Research Summary}, title={Availability of Financing to Small Firms Using the Survey of Small Business Finances}, publisher={Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy}, author={Pearce, Douglas K. and Mitchell, Karlyn}, year={2005}, month={May}, collection={Small Business Research Summary} } @article{mitchell_pearce_2004, title={Which Loans are Relationship Loans? Evidence from the 1998 Survey of Small Business Finances}, volume={9}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance & Business Ventures}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K}, year={2004}, month={Oct}, pages={1–33} } @article{mitchell_onvural_1996, title={Economies of Scale and Scope at Large Commercial Banks: Evidence from the Fourier Flexible Functional Form}, volume={28}, ISSN={0022-2879}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2078022}, DOI={10.2307/2078022}, abstractNote={This study contributes new evidence on bank cost efficiency by computing efficiency measures from estimated cost functions. It overcomes deficiencies of previous studies by restricting the sample to homogeneous banks and by estimating Fourier flexible cost functions. A Fourier flexible cost function, which has the translog nested within it, can potentially approximate an arbitrary cost function well over the function's entire range. Functions consistent with both the 'intermediation' and 'production' approaches are estimated using 1986 and 1990 Call Report data for large banks. The computed efficiency measures show little evidence of scale and scope economies. In addition, tests reveal translog cost functions to be biased. Copyright 1996 by Ohio State University Press.}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Money, Credit and Banking}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Onvural, Nur M.}, year={1996}, month={May}, pages={178–199} } @article{mitchell_1993, title={THE DEBT MATURITY CHOICE: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION}, volume={16}, ISSN={0270-2592}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6803.1993.tb00150.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1475-6803.1993.tb00150.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={Journal of Financial Research}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn}, year={1993}, month={Dec}, pages={309–320} } @article{mitchell_pearce_1992, title={Discount window borrowing across federal reserve districts: Evidence under contemporaneous reserve accounting}, volume={16}, ISSN={0378-4266}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(92)90007-m}, DOI={10.1016/0378-4266(92)90007-m}, abstractNote={In recent years, bank borrowing at the discount window has been less reliably related to the spread between the Federal funds rate and the discount rate, complicating the implementation of the borrowed reserves targeting procedure of the Federal Reserve. This paper investigates borrowing across Federal Reserve districts to see if there are significant differences in borrowing behavior across bank size and discount window administrations. The results suggest that borrowing behavior does differ across districts, that standard borrowing models are least satisfactory in explaining the borrowing of large banks, and that borrowing behavior changed after the 1987 stock market crash. The gains in explanatory power from disaggregation, however, are not large.}, number={4}, journal={Journal of Banking & Finance}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={1992}, month={Aug}, pages={771–790} } @article{mitchell_mcdade_1992, title={Preferred Habitat, Taxable/Tax-Exempt Yield Spreads, and Cycles in Property/Liability Insurance}, volume={24}, ISSN={0022-2879}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1992810}, DOI={10.2307/1992810}, abstractNote={Several theories seek to explain the spread between the yields on taxable and tax-exempt bonds of comparable maturity. This paper reconsiders the market segmentation theory by focusing on property and liability insurance companies (PLICs). PLICs can provide evidence on the market segmentation theory both because they are major participants in the market for longer term tax- exempt bonds and because of their industry's pronounced profit cycle, which causes wide variations in PLICs' need fortax shields. If investors have "preferred habitats" as per the market segmentation theory, their preferences should cause PLICs' purchases and sales of tax-exempts to have different impacts on taxable/tax-exempts yield spreads at different maturities. This paper finds strong evidence of market segmentation during the 1972-84 period, when the industry experienced two extremely pronounced cycles, and weaker evidence of market segmentation during the 1959-71 and 1985-89 periods. Copyright 1992 by Ohio State University Press.}, number={4}, journal={Journal of Money, Credit and Banking}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and McDade, Michael D.}, year={1992}, month={Nov}, pages={528–552} } @article{mitchell_1991, title={The Call, Sinking Fund, and Term-to-Maturity Features of Corporate Bonds: An Empirical Investigation}, volume={26}, ISSN={0022-1090}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2331265}, DOI={10.2307/2331265}, abstractNote={Abstract Do bond-issuing firms attempt to choose the call, sinking fund, and term-to-maturity features of bonds to improve shareholder wealth? This paper develops and tests two hypotheses about the determinants of bond features using a conditional logistic model. The model is estimated on a sample of bonds issued between 1982 and 1986. Model estimates show that a bond's call, sinking fund, and term-to-maturity features are statistically related to the issuing firm's retention ratio, ratio of convertible to long-term debt, two-year change in net operating income, and whether the firm is listed on the NYSE and included in the S&P400. These findings support the view that firms financing highquality projects, but facing information asymmetries, choose shorter-term (medium-term) callable bonds with and without the sinking fund feature.}, number={2}, journal={The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn}, year={1991}, month={Jun}, pages={201–222} } @article{mitchell_1989, title={Interest Rate Risk at Commercial Banks: An Empirical Investigation}, volume={24}, ISSN={0732-8516 1540-6288}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.1989.tb00351.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1540-6288.1989.tb00351.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={The Financial Review}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn}, year={1989}, month={Aug}, pages={431–455} } @article{mitchell_1987, title={Interest rate uncertainty and corporate debt maturity}, volume={39}, ISSN={0148-6195}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0148-6195(87)90010-5}, DOI={10.1016/0148-6195(87)90010-5}, abstractNote={This paper presents an expected utility model of the corporate debt maturity decision to help explain the 20-year decline in the average maturity of U.S. corporate sector debt. Simulations of the model suggest that increasing uncertainty about future nominal interest rates caused the decline in debt maturity: managers substituted away from long-term debt to avoid rolling over the debt at highly uncertain future rates.}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Economics and Business}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn}, year={1987}, month={May}, pages={101–114} }