@article{lapp_pearce_2012, title={The impact of economic news on expected changes in monetary policy}, volume={34}, ISSN={["0164-0704"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.01.009}, abstractNote={Asset prices may react to news through changes in expected monetary policy. We examine whether economic news directly affects expected changes in monetary policy, measured by changes in federal funds rate futures prices. Because these prices depend on monthly averages of the effective funds rate, the timing of FOMC meetings relative to news announcements is important and we derive a method of weighting the news that incorporates this timing. We find that the market raises (lowers) its expected change in the funds rate target after news that inflation was higher (lower) than expected or employment was stronger (weaker) than expected.}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS}, author={Lapp, John S. and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2012}, month={Jun}, pages={362–379} }
 @article{lapp_pearce_laksanasut_2003, title={The predictability of FOMC decisions: Evidence from the Volcker and Greenspan chairmanships}, volume={70}, ISSN={["2325-8012"]}, DOI={10.2307/3648971}, abstractNote={This paper examines whether there is a systematic relationship between FOMC decisions and publicly available data that would potentially allow the public to anticipate FOMC policy changes. We characterize each FOMC decision as a move to tighten, ease, or leave policy unchanged and use ordered probit to estimate models of the probabilities of each choice. We find a statistically significant relationship between FOMC decisions and measures of inflation and real activity, but this relationship does not accurately predict the directions of FOMC decisions. While short-term interest rate changes prior to FOMC meetings have predictive power, suggesting that the financial market can anticipate FOMC decisions somewhat, other financial variables such as stock price movements appear unrelated to FOMC policy changes. Overall, FOMC decisions are not highly predictable using publicly available data, and adding the private information contained in the FOMC's Greenbook does not significantly increase the predictive accuracy.}, number={2}, journal={SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL}, author={Lapp, JS and Pearce, DK and Laksanasut, S}, year={2003}, month={Oct}, pages={312–327} }
 @article{lapp_1997, title={Interest rates, rate spreads, and economic activity}, volume={15}, ISSN={["1074-3529"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1465-7287.1997.tb00476.x}, abstractNote={Interest rates and the spreads between interest rates are widely regarded as useful indicators of the future level of economic activity. This paper shows that when these series are divided into (i) an ordinary time series process and (ii) the effects of extraordinary disturbances, only the extraordinary disturbances predict economic activity. These disturbances are associated with periods of monetary policy intervention. Most of the predictive power is in contractionary disturbances that have persistent effects over time. The results imply that the predictive power of interest rates comes primarily from periods of contractionary monetary policy and is not due to ordinary movements in interest rates.}, number={3}, journal={CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY}, author={Lapp, JS}, year={1997}, month={Jul}, pages={42–50} }
 @article{lapp_1997, title={Monetary base outliers as predictors of economic activity}, number={1997}, journal={Journal of Economic Research}, author={Lapp, J. S.}, year={1997} }
 @article{lapp_smith_1992, title={AGGREGATE SOURCES OF RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY AMONG AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES}, volume={74}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.2307/1242984}, abstractNote={AbstractA measure of relative price variability among forty‐seven agricultural commodities is developed for the period 1962 to 1987. Econometric models are used to explore the effects of macroeconomic instability on relative price variability within the agricultural sector. The results show that these relative prices are more variable when actual and unanticipated inflation rates are higher. They may also be more variable during periods when real shocks to the macroeconomy are relatively large. Thus, monetary and fiscal events are not neutral with respect to the agricultural sector because macroeconomic instability appears to create instability and increased uncertainty in agricultural markets.}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={LAPP, JS and SMITH, VH}, year={1992}, month={Feb}, pages={1–9} }
 @article{lapp_1990, title={RELATIVE AGRICULTURAL PRICES AND MONETARY-POLICY}, volume={72}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.2307/1243032}, abstractNote={AbstractAn imperfect information, rational expectations model of relative price determination is presented. This model provides an econometric specification for testing for a causal relationship between money and the relative prices of agricultural commodities. Test results indicate that variations in the growth rate of the nominal money supply (whether anticipated or unanticipated) have not been an important influence on the average level of prices received by farmers relative to other prices in the economy over the period 1951–85.}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={LAPP, JS}, year={1990}, month={Aug}, pages={622–630} }