@article{tejada_ivy_wilson_ballan_diehl_yankaskas_2015, title={Combined DES/SD model of breast cancer screening for older women, I: Natural-history simulation}, volume={47}, ISSN={["1545-8830"]}, DOI={10.1080/0740817x.2014.959671}, abstractNote={Two companion articles develop and exploit a simulation modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness of breast cancer screening policies for U.S. women who are at least 65 years old. This first article examines the main components in the breast cancer screening-and-treatment process for older women; then it introduces a two-phase simulation approach to defining and modeling those components. Finally this article discusses the first-phase simulation, a natural-history model of the incidence and progression of untreated breast cancer for randomly sampled individuals from the designated population of older U.S. women. The companion article details the second-phase simulation, an integrated screening-and-treatment model that uses information about the genesis of breast cancer in the sampled individuals as generated by the natural-history model to estimate the benefits of different policies for screening the designated population and treating the women afflicted with the disease. Both simulation models are composed of interacting sub-models that represent key aspects of the incidence, progression, screening, treatment, survival, and cost of breast cancer in the population of older U.S. women as well as the overall structure of the system for detecting and treating the disease.}, number={6}, journal={IIE TRANSACTIONS}, author={Tejada, Jeremy J. and Ivy, Julie S. and Wilson, James R. and Ballan, Matthew J. and Diehl, Kathleen M. and Yankaskas, Bonnie C.}, year={2015}, month={Jun}, pages={600–619} }
 @article{tejada_ivy_king_wilson_ballan_kay_diehl_yankaskas_2014, title={Combined DES/SD model of breast cancer screening for older women, II: screening-and-treatment simulation}, volume={46}, ISSN={0740-817X 1545-8830}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0740817X.2013.851436}, DOI={10.1080/0740817x.2013.851436}, abstractNote={In the second article of a two-article sequence, the focus is on a simulation model for screening and treatment of breast cancer in U.S. women of age 65+. The first article details a natural-history simulation model of the incidence and progression of untreated breast cancer in a representative simulated population of older U.S. women, which ultimately generates a database of untreated breast cancer histories for individuals in the simulated population. Driven by the resulting database, the screening-and-treatment simulation model is composed of discrete-event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD) submodels. For each individual in the simulated population, the DES submodel simulates screening policies and treatment procedures to estimate the resulting survival rates and the costs of screening and treatment. The SD submodel represents the overall structure and operation of the U.S. system for detecting and treating breast cancer. The main results and conclusions are summarized, including a final recommendation for annual screening between ages 65 and 80. A discussion is also presented on how both the natural-history and screening-and-treatment simulations can be used for performance comparisons of proposed screening policies based on overall cost-effectiveness, the numbers of life-years and quality-adjusted life-years saved, and the main components of the total cost incurred by each policy.}, number={7}, journal={IIE Transactions}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Tejada, Jeremy J. and Ivy, Julie S. and King, Russell E. and Wilson, James R. and Ballan, Matthew J. and Kay, Michael G. and Diehl, Kathleen M. and Yankaskas, Bonnie C.}, year={2014}, month={Mar}, pages={707–727} }