@article{smart_vukomanovic_taillie_singh_smith_2021, title={Quantifying Drivers of Coastal Forest Carbon Decline Highlights Opportunities for Targeted Human Interventions}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2073-445X"]}, DOI={10.3390/land10070752}, abstractNote={As coastal land use intensifies and sea levels rise, the fate of coastal forests becomes increasingly uncertain. Synergistic anthropogenic and natural pressures affect the extent and function of coastal forests, threatening valuable ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and storage. Quantifying the drivers of coastal forest degradation is requisite to effective and targeted adaptation and management. However, disentangling the drivers and their relative contributions at a landscape scale is difficult, due to spatial dependencies and nonstationarity in the socio-spatial processes causing degradation. We used nonspatial and spatial regression approaches to quantify the relative contributions of sea level rise, natural disturbances, and land use activities on coastal forest degradation, as measured by decadal aboveground carbon declines. We measured aboveground carbon declines using time-series analysis of satellite and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) imagery between 2001 and 2014 in a low-lying coastal region experiencing synergistic natural and anthropogenic pressures. We used nonspatial (ordinary least squares regression–OLS) and spatial (geographically weighted regression–GWR) models to quantify relationships between drivers and aboveground carbon declines. Using locally specific parameter estimates from GWR, we predicted potential future carbon declines under sea level rise inundation scenarios. From both the spatial and nonspatial regression models, we found that land use activities and natural disturbances had the highest measures of relative importance (together representing 94% of the model’s explanatory power), explaining more variation in carbon declines than sea level rise metrics such as salinity and distance to the estuarine shoreline. However, through the spatial regression approach, we found spatial heterogeneity in the relative contributions to carbon declines, with sea level rise metrics contributing more to carbon declines closer to the shore. Overlaying our aboveground carbon maps with sea level rise inundation models we found associated losses in total aboveground carbon, measured in teragrams of carbon (TgC), ranged from 2.9 ± 0.1 TgC (for a 0.3 m rise in sea level) to 8.6 ± 0.3 TgC (1.8 m rise). Our predictions indicated that on the remaining non-inundated landscape, potential carbon declines increased from 29% to 32% between a 0.3 and 1.8 m rise in sea level. By accounting for spatial nonstationarity in our drivers, we provide information on site-specific relationships at a regional scale, allowing for more targeted management planning and intervention. Accordingly, our regional-scale assessment can inform policy, planning, and adaptation solutions for more effective and targeted management of valuable coastal forests.}, number={7}, journal={LAND}, author={Smart, Lindsey S. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Taillie, Paul J. and Singh, Kunwar K. and Smith, Jordan W.}, year={2021}, month={Jul} }
 @article{anderson_ury_taillie_ungberg_moorman_poulter_ardón_bernhardt_wright_2021, title={Salinity thresholds for understory plants in coastal wetlands}, volume={223}, ISSN={1385-0237 1573-5052}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11258-021-01209-2}, DOI={10.1007/s11258-021-01209-2}, abstractNote={The effects of sea level rise and coastal saltwater intrusion on wetland plants can extend well above the high-tide line due to drought, hurricanes, and groundwater intrusion. Research has examined how coastal salt marsh plant communities respond to increased flooding and salinity, but more inland coastal systems have received less attention. The aim of this study was to identify whether ground layer plants exhibit threshold responses to salinity exposure. We used two vegetation surveys throughout the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula (APP) of North Carolina, USA to assess vegetation in a low elevation landscape (≤ 3.8 m) experiencing high rates of sea level rise (3–4 mm/year). We examined the primary drivers of community composition change using Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) and used Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN) to detect thresholds of compositional change based on indicator taxa, in response to potential indicators of exposure to saltwater (Na, and the Σ Ca + Mg) and elevation. Salinity and elevation explained 64% of the variation in community composition, and we found two salinity thresholds for both soil Na+ (265 and 3843 g Na+/g) and Ca+ + Mg+ (42 and 126 µeq/g) where major changes in community composition occur on the APP. Similar sets of species showed sensitivity to these different metrics of salt exposure. Overall, our results showed that ground layer plants can be used as reliable indicators of salinity thresholds in coastal wetlands. These results can be used for monitoring salt exposure of ecosystems and for identifying areas at risk for undergoing future community shifts.}, number={3}, journal={Plant Ecology}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Anderson, Steven M. and Ury, Emily A. and Taillie, Paul J. and Ungberg, Eric A. and Moorman, Christopher E. and Poulter, Benjamin and Ardón, Marcelo and Bernhardt, Emily S. and Wright, Justin P.}, year={2021}, month={Nov}, pages={323–337} }
 @article{smart_taillie_poulter_vukomanovic_singh_swenson_mitasova_smith_meentemeyer_2020, title={Aboveground carbon loss associated with the spread of ghost forests as sea levels rise}, volume={15}, ISSN={["1748-9326"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85092484857&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/aba136}, abstractNote={Abstract
               Coastal forests sequester and store more carbon than their terrestrial counterparts but are at greater risk of conversion due to sea level rise. Saltwater intrusion from sea level rise converts freshwater-dependent coastal forests to more salt-tolerant marshes, leaving ‘ghost forests’ of standing dead trees behind. Although recent research has investigated the drivers and rates of coastal forest decline, the associated changes in carbon storage across large extents have not been quantified. We mapped ghost forest spread across coastal North Carolina, USA, using repeat Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys, multi-temporal satellite imagery, and field measurements of aboveground biomass to quantify changes in aboveground carbon. Between 2001 and 2014, 15% (167 km2) of unmanaged public land in the region changed from coastal forest to transition-ghost forest characterized by salt-tolerant shrubs and herbaceous plants. Salinity and proximity to the estuarine shoreline were significant drivers of these changes. This conversion resulted in a net aboveground carbon decline of 0.13 ± 0.01 TgC. Because saltwater intrusion precedes inundation and influences vegetation condition in advance of mature tree mortality, we suggest that aboveground carbon declines can be used to detect the leading edge of sea level rise. Aboveground carbon declines along the shoreline were offset by inland aboveground carbon gains associated with natural succession and forestry activities like planting (2.46 ± 0.25 TgC net aboveground carbon across study area). Our study highlights the combined effects of saltwater intrusion and land use on aboveground carbon dynamics of temperate coastal forests in North America. By quantifying the effects of multiple interacting disturbances, our measurement and mapping methods should be applicable to other coastal landscapes experiencing saltwater intrusion. As sea level rise increases the landward extent of inundation and saltwater exposure, investigations at these large scales are requisite for effective resource allocation for climate adaptation. In this changing environment, human intervention, whether through land preservation, restoration, or reforestation, may be necessary to prevent aboveground carbon loss.}, number={10}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Smart, Lindsey S. and Taillie, Paul J. and Poulter, Benjamin and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Singh, Kunwar K. and Swenson, Jennifer J. and Mitasova, Helena and Smith, Jordan W. and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2020}, month={Oct} }
 @article{taillie_moorman_smart_pacifici_2019, title={Bird community shifts associated with saltwater exposure in coastal forests at the leading edge of rising sea level}, volume={14}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0216540}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0216540}, abstractNote={Rising sea levels dramatically alter the vegetation composition and structure of coastal ecosystems. However, the implications of these changes for coastal wildlife are poorly understood. We aimed to quantify responses of avian communities to forest change (i.e., ghost forests) in a low-lying coastal region highly vulnerable to rising sea level. We conducted point counts to sample avian communities at 156 forested points in eastern North Carolina, USA in 2013–2015. We modelled avian community composition using a multi-species hierarchical occupancy model and used metrics of vegetation structure derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data as covariates related to variation in bird responses. We used this model to predict occupancy for each bird species in 2001 (using an analogous 2001 LiDAR dataset) and 2014 and used the change in occupancy probability to estimate habitat losses and gains at 3 spatial extents: 1) the entire study area, 2) burned forests only, and 3) unburned, low-lying coastal forests only. Of the 56 bird species we investigated, we observed parameter estimates corresponding to a higher likelihood of occurring in ghost forest for 34 species, but only 9 of those had 95% posterior intervals that did not overlap 0, thus having strong support. Despite the high vulnerability of forests in the region to sea level rise, habitat losses and gains associated with rising sea level were small relative to those resulting from wildfire. Though the extent of habitat changes associated with the development of ghost forest was limited, these changes likely are more permanent and may compound over time as sea level rises at an increasing rate. As such, the proliferation of ghost forests from rising sea level has potential to become an important driver of forest bird habitat change in coastal regions.}, number={5}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Taillie, Paul J. and Moorman, Christopher E. and Smart, Lindsey S. and Pacifici, Krishna}, year={2019}, month={May} }
 @article{bhattachan_jurjonas_morris_taillie_smart_emanuel_seekamp_2019, title={Linking residential saltwater intrusion risk perceptions to physical exposure of climate change impacts in rural coastal communities of North Carolina}, volume={97}, ISSN={0921-030X 1573-0840}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03706-0}, DOI={10.1007/s11069-019-03706-0}, number={3}, journal={Natural Hazards}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Bhattachan, Abinash and Jurjonas, Matthew D. and Morris, Priscilla R. and Taillie, Paul J. and Smart, Lindsey S. and Emanuel, Ryan E. and Seekamp, Erin L.}, year={2019}, month={Jul}, pages={1277–1295} }
 @article{taillie_moorman_2019, title={Marsh bird occupancy along the shoreline-to-forest gradient as marshes migrate from rising sea level}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.2555}, abstractNote={AbstractOne mechanism by which coastal marshes may persist as sea‐level rises is to expand landward into existing forest, a process known as marsh migration. Though recent studies highlight the importance of marsh migration to the conservation of birds associated with coastal marshes, marsh bird responses to this transition from forest to marsh are poorly understood. To address this need, we conducted surveys of five focal marsh bird taxa at 92 points distributed across the gradient from the shoreline to the marsh–forest interface in one of the most vulnerable regions to sea‐level rise in North America where marshes have been migrating landward for at least several decades. Given this landward movement of the forest–marsh interface, we modeled focal taxa occurrence as a function of distance‐to‐forest, thereby assuming that marshes closer to the forest were newer than those closer to the shoreline. In addition, we investigated the effects of vegetation conditions and fire frequency. Occupancy probability of marsh birds decreased closer to the forest–marsh interface where woody vegetation was taller and herbaceous cover was dominated by Cladium jamaicense, suggesting migrated marsh may provide limited habitat for these bird species, at least in the short term. Though parameter estimate uncertainty for black rail (Laterallus jamaicensis) was high due to a limited number of detections, occupancy of this species may increase with the conditions associated with migrated marsh, specifically greater C. jamaicense dominance and decreasing distance‐to‐forest. Clapper/king rail (Rallus crepitans/elegans) occupancy was greater at sites that had burned more frequently over the past decade, and occupancy of all focal taxa was greater in areas with vegetation conditions consistent with the effects of fire in coastal marshes, including reduced herbaceous vegetation density and shorter woody vegetation. As such, prescribed fire may serve as an effective method of facilitating marsh migration and increasing the quality and quantity of habitat for coastal marsh birds as sea‐level rises.}, number={1}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Taillie, Paul J. and Moorman, Christopher E.}, year={2019}, month={Jan} }
 @article{bobay_taillie_moorman_2018, title={Use of autonomous recording units increased detection of a secretive marsh bird}, volume={89}, ISSN={["1557-9263"]}, DOI={10.1111/jofo.12274}, abstractNote={Obtaining sufficient numbers of detections during point counts to make inferences concerning the presence and abundance of secretive species, such as many species of marsh birds, can be difficult. However, autonomous recording units (ARUs) can provide extended survey windows, potentially allowing for more effective detection of elusive species. We assessed the feasibility of using both ARUs and point-count surveys to monitor Black Rails (Laterallus jamaicensis) and Least Bitterns (Ixobrychus exilis), two secretive marsh birds of conservation concern. We identified vocalizations in ARU recordings using acoustic analysis software, and combined these observations with those from point counts to model occupancy of both species in coastal marshes of eastern North Carolina in 2016 and 2017 while accounting for variation in detection. Use of ARUs doubled the number of points where we detected Black Rails; thus, the combined point count-ARU model yielded a greater occupancy probability for this species. However, the ARUs recorded few Least Bittern vocalizations, suggesting that successful application of ARUs may depend on the vocal complexity of focal species. Although the appropriateness of integrating ARUs with in-person monitoring varies among species, our results illustrate that this integration increased detections of an elusive species of conservation concern. RESUMEN. Uso de Unidades Aut onomas de Grabaci on incrementa la detecci on de un ave de pantano sigilosa La obtenci on de una cantidad suficiente de detecciones durante conteos por puntos, que permita hacer inferencias sobre la presencia y abundancia de especies sigilosas, como muchas especies de aves de pantano, puede ser dif ıcil. Sin embargo, el uso de unidades aut onomas de grabaci on (ARUs) puede ampliar estas oportunidades durante reconocimientos de campo, permitiendo potencialmente una detecci on m as efectiva de especies elusivas. Determinamos la factibilidad de uso de ARUs y reconocimientos por medio de conteos por puntos para registrar rascones (Laterallus jamaicensis) y avetoros (Ixobrychus exilis), dos aves de pantano sigilosas con estatus de conservaci on preocupante. Identificamos vocalizaciones en grabaciones con ARUs utilizando software de an alisis ac ustico y combinamos estas observaciones con aquellas de conteos por puntos para modelar la ocupaci on de ambas especies en los pantanos costeros del este de North Carolina en 2016 y 2017 mientras contabiliz abamos la variaci on de su detecci on. El uso de las ARUs duplic o el n umero de puntos donde detectamos a Laterallus jamaicensis, con lo que el modelo conteo por punto-ARU gener o una probabilidad de ocupaci on mayor para esta especie. Sin embargo, las ARUs grabaron pocas vocalizaciones de Ixobrychus exilis, lo que sugiere que el uso exitoso de ARUs podr ıa depender de la complejidad vocal de la especie focal. Aunque la pertinencia de integrar ARUs con registros hechos en persona var ıa entre especies, nuestros resultados ilustran que dicha integraci on incrementa las detecciones de una especie elusiva cuya conservaci on es preocupante.}, number={4}, journal={JOURNAL OF FIELD ORNITHOLOGY}, author={Bobay, Lucas R. and Taillie, Paul J. and Moorman, Christopher E.}, year={2018}, month={Dec}, pages={384–392} }
 @article{pickens_marcus_carpenter_anderson_taillie_collazo_2017, title={The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird}, volume={191}, ISSN={["1095-8630"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.01.005}, abstractNote={A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.}, journal={JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT}, author={Pickens, Bradley A. and Marcus, Jeffrey F. and Carpenter, John P. and Anderson, Scott and Taillie, Paul J. and Collazo, Jaime A.}, year={2017}, month={Apr}, pages={105–115} }
 @article{taillie_peterson_moorman_2015, title={The relative importance of multiscale factors in the distribution of Bachman's Sparrow and the implications for ecosystem conservation}, volume={117}, ISSN={["1938-5129"]}, DOI={10.1650/condor-14-137.1}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Recent research has shown that landscape-level changes, namely habitat loss and fragmentation, can play an important role in determining the distribution of species across a variety of ecological systems. However, the influence of these large-scale factors in relation to small-scale factors, such as local vegetation structure or composition, is poorly understood. We used Bachman's Sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis) as a surrogate species to measure the relative importance of local vegetation and large-scale habitat distribution in the Onslow Bight region of North Carolina, USA. We conducted repeated point counts at 232 points within 111 habitat patches between April 10 and July 20, 2011. We then fit a series of single-season occupancy models, including both local and landscape-level predictors, to identify those that best explained the distribution of Bachman's Sparrows. We documented a strong response to vegetation characteristics best maintained via prescribed fire, but the most influential predictor of Bachman's Sparrow occupancy was the amount of habitat within 3 km. Specifically, the probability of Bachman's Sparrow occurrence was close to zero in landscapes comprised of <10% habitat, regardless of local vegetation conditions. Our results illustrate the strong influence of habitat loss on Bachman's Sparrow and likely on other members of this community, many of which are of high conservation concern.}, number={2}, journal={CONDOR}, author={Taillie, Paul J. and Peterson, M. Nils and Moorman, Christopher E.}, year={2015}, month={May}, pages={137–146} }