@article{magarey_chappell_watson_2024, title={Investigating the Effects of Misinformation as Infopathogens: Developing a Model and Thought Experiment}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2076-0760"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci13060300}, DOI={10.3390/socsci13060300}, abstractNote={Previously, it has been shown that transmissible and harmful misinformation can be viewed as pathogenic, potentially contributing to collective social epidemics. In this study, a biological analogy is developed to allow investigative methods that are applied to biological epidemics to be considered for adaptation to digital and social ones including those associated with misinformation. The model’s components include infopathogens, tropes, cognition, memes, and phenotypes. The model can be used for diagnostic, pathologic, and synoptic/taxonomic study of the spread of misinformation. A thought experiment based on a hypothetical riot is used to understand how disinformation spreads.}, number={6}, journal={SOCIAL SCIENCES-BASEL}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Chappell, Thomas M. and Watson, Kayla Pack}, year={2024}, month={Jun} }
 @article{boudwin_magarey_jess_2022, title={Integrated Pest Management Data for Regulation, Research, and Education: Crop Profiles and Pest Management Strategic Plans}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2155-7470"]}, DOI={10.1093/jipm/pmac011}, abstractNote={Abstract
               Crop Profiles and Pest Management Strategic Plans are two sources of data that describe current and historical pest management practices for settings (e.g., agricultural commodities, schools, specialty crops, etc.) in the United States and territories. The development of documents began in 1998 as a response to the Food Quality Protection Act to ensure the collection of required data for the registration of pesticides. These documents are primary sources for government agencies, growers, crop consultants, and scientific researchers to understand and communicate production practices and issues. The documents include crop settings, priorities, worker activities, production practices, locations, pollinator protection, pests, beneficials, controls (biological, cultural, physical, and chemical), efficacy, resistance management, ecotoxicity, and timelines. Stakeholders can access these documents through the National IPM Database. The database includes functionality to develop and edit documents as well as Application Programming Interfaces to add data to the Crop Profile and Pest Management Strategic Plan documents. Current Application Programming Interface partnerships are with Bugwood and the National Pesticide Information Center. The document creation and Pest Management Strategic Plan workshop process with federal and state regulators, IR-4, state Extension professionals, industry, and grower participants is described. Potential future development of the National IPM Database is to serve as a repository for grower production guides. In conclusion, the accurate and up-to-date Integrated Pest Management data are a vital input in the regulatory process for the review of existing critical pesticides and the registration of safer alternatives.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT}, author={Boudwin, Robin and Magarey, Roger and Jess, Lynnae}, year={2022}, month={Jan} }
 @article{magarey_trexler_2021, title={Correction: Information: a missing component in understanding and mitigating social epidemics}, url={https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00690-w}, DOI={10.1057/s41599-020-00690-w}, abstractNote={A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00690-w}, journal={Humanities and Social Sciences Communications}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Trexler, Christina M.}, year={2021}, month={Jan} }
 @inbook{magarey_meentemeyer_grünwald_2020, title={Geospatial Analytics for Plant Disease Management}, ISBN={9780890546383 9780890546390}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/9780890546383.011}, DOI={10.1094/9780890546383.011}, abstractNote={Predicting the spread of plant diseases and guiding disease management are both more informed as a result of having more data and better models. This chapter discuses the primary uses of geospatial analytics for emerging plant diseases that impact food security. As the world becomes more complex, the need for geospatial analytics for plant disease management will increase.}, booktitle={Emerging Plant Diseases and Global Food Security}, publisher={The American Phytopathological Society}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Meentemeyer, Ross K. and Grünwald, Niklaus J.}, editor={Ristaino, J.B. and Records, A.Editors}, year={2020}, month={Jan}, pages={221–237} }
 @article{magarey_trexler_2020, title={Information: a missing component in understanding and mitigating social epidemics}, volume={7}, url={https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00620-w}, DOI={10.1057/s41599-020-00620-w}, abstractNote={AbstractSocial epidemics or behaviorally based non-communicable diseases are becoming an increasingly important problem in developed countries including the United States. It is the aim of our paper to propose a previously understudied aspect of the spread of social epidemics, the role of information in both causing and mitigating social epidemics. In this paper, we ask, can information be harmful, contagious, and a causal factor in social epidemics? In the spread of biological epidemics, the causal agents are biological pathogens such as bacteria or viruses. We propose that in the spread of social epidemics, one of the causal agents is harmful information, which is increasing exponentially in the age of the internet. We ground our idea in the concept of the meme and define the concept of an infopathogen as harmful information that can spread or intensify a social epidemic. Second, we ask, what are the best tools to understand the role of information in the spread of social epidemics? The epidemiological triad that includes a host, agents (and vectors), and the environment is extended into a quad by including information agents. The quad includes the role of information technologies as vectors and the impact of the social environment. The “life cycles” of pathogens in biological epidemics and infopathogens in social epidemics are compared, along with mitigations suggested by the epidemiological quad. Challenges to the theory of infopathogens, including the complexities associated with the spread of memes and the role of behavior in the spread of epidemics are discussed. Implications of the theory including the classification of harmfulness, the freedom of speech, and the treatment of infected individuals are also considered. We believe the application of the epidemiological quad provides insights into social epidemics and potential mitigations. Finally, we stress that infopathogens are only part of social epidemic development; susceptible hosts, a favorable environment, and availability of physical agents are all also required.}, number={1}, journal={Humanities and Social Sciences Communications}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Trexler, Christina M.}, year={2020}, month={Oct} }
 @article{gottwald_taylor_amorim_bergamin-filho_bassanezi_silva_fogliata_fourie_graham_hattingh_et al._2021, title={Probabilistic risk-based model for the assessment of Phyllosticta citricarpa-infected citrus fruit and illicit plant material as pathways for pathogen introduction and establishment}, volume={142}, ISBN={1873-6904}, DOI={10.1016/j.cropro.2020.105521}, abstractNote={Citrus Black Spot (CBS), caused by the ascomycete, Phyllosticta citricarpa, is a fruit, foliar, and twig spotting fungal disease affecting the majority of commercial cultivars of citrus. The disease causes cosmetic lesions, may cause fruit drop and P. citricarpa is considered a quarantine pathogen by some countries, impacting domestic and international trade of citrus fruit. Regulatory requirements affecting fruit trade exist even though there is no documented case of disease spread via infected fruit into previously disease-free areas. To clarify the risk of fruit as a potential pathway for the spread of CBS, we developed a quantitative, probabilistic risk assessment model. The model provides an assessment of all steps in the fruit pathway, including production, packinghouse handling, transportation, export-import distribution channels, and consumer endpoints. The model is stochastic and uses Monte Carlo simulation to assess the risk of P. citricarpa moving through all steps in the pathway. We attempted to use all available literature and information to quantitate risk at each point in the potential pathway and by sequentially linking all steps to determine the overall quantitative risk. In addition, we assessed climatological effects on incidence of diseased fruit at production sites and on fungal reproduction and infection, as well as criteria for establishment at endpoints. We examined ten case studies between exporting and importing locations/countries. Model results indicated fruit to be an epidemiologically insignificant means for CBS spread, even between producing countries where CBS occurs and CBS-free importing countries with disease-conducive climates. We created a second model to examine the introduction of infected plant material from countries where CBS occurs. This model demonstrated significant probability of introduction via such infected material. However, pathogen establishment and disease development was still restricted only to areas with conducive climatological conditions. We created a tool to quantitatively explore the viability of various potential pathways via combinations of CBS-present production sites and corresponding pathway endpoints, including environments conducive and non-conducive to CBS. The tool is provided to aid decision makers on phytosanitary risk relative to international trade of citrus fruit.}, journal={CROP PROTECTION}, author={Gottwald, T. R. and Taylor, E. L. and Amorim, L. and Bergamin-Filho, A. and Bassanezi, R. B. and Silva, Jr. G. J. and Fogliata, G. and Fourie, P. H. and Graham, J. H. and Hattingh, V. and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Apr} }
 @inproceedings{guidini_markell_harveson_johnson_magarey_isard_2019, title={Comparing Growth Stage and Forecasting Model Based Fungicide Application to Manage Phomopsis Stem Canker of Sunflower (Helianthus annuus)}, author={Guidini, R. and Markell, S. and Harveson, R. and Johnson, M. and Magarey, R. and Isard, S.}, year={2019} }
 @article{magarey_klammer_chappell_trexler_pallipparambil_hain_2019, title={Eco-efficiency as a strategy for optimizing the sustainability of pest management}, volume={75}, ISSN={["1526-4998"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.5560}, DOI={10.1002/ps.5560}, abstractNote={AbstractAgricultural industrialization and the subsequent reliance on pesticides has resulted in numerous unintended consequences, such as impacts upon the environment and by extension human health. Eco‐efficiency is a strategy for sustainably increasing production, while simultaneously decreasing these externalities on ecological systems. Eco‐efficiency is defined as the ratio of production to environmental impacts. It has been widely adopted to improve chemical production, but we investigate the challenges of applying eco‐efficiency to pesticide use. Eco‐efficiency strategies include technological innovation, investment in research and development, improvement of business processes, and accounting for market forces. These components are often part of integrated pest management (IPM) systems that include alternatives to pesticides, but its implementation is often thwarted by commercial realities and technical challenges. We propose the creation and adoption of an eco‐efficiency index for pesticide use so that the broad benefits of eco‐efficient strategies such as IPM can be more readily quantified. We propose an index based upon the ratio of crop yield to a risk quotient (RQ) calculated from pesticide toxicity. Eco‐efficiency is an operational basis for optimizing pest management for sustainability. It naturally favors adoption of IPM and should be considered by regulators, researchers, and practitioners involved in pest management. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry}, number={12}, journal={PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Klammer, Sarah S. H. and Chappell, Thomas M. and Trexler, Christina M. and Pallipparambil, Godshen R. and Hain, Ernie F.}, year={2019}, month={Dec}, pages={3129–3134} }
 @inproceedings{mathew_harveson_johnson_magarey_isard_braun_2019, title={Growth stage vs. forecasting model based fungicide application to manage Phomopsis stem canker of sunflower (Helianthus annuus}, author={Mathew, F.M. and Harveson, R.M. and Johnson, M. and Magarey, R.D. and Isard, S.A. and Braun, N.}, year={2019} }
 @article{chappell_magarey_kurtz_trexler_pallipparambil_hain_2019, title={Perspective: service-based business models to incentivize the efficient use of pesticides in crop protection}, volume={75}, ISSN={["1526-4998"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.5523}, DOI={10.1002/ps.5523}, abstractNote={AbstractSeveral problems limit the productivity and acceptance of crop protection, including pesticide overuse, pesticide resistance, poor adoption of integrated pest management (IPM), declining funding for research and extension, and inefficiencies of scale. We discuss the proposition that alternative business models for crop protection can address these problems by incentivizing and benefiting from efficiency of pesticide use. Currently, business models are not linked to the adoption of IPM and are sometimes at odds with IPM practices. We explore a business model based on the provision of pest management adequacy through services rather than the sale of pesticide products. Specifically, we advocate for establishment of crop protection adequacy standards that would allow a market system to maximize efficiency. Changing some of the relationships between agricultural companies and producers from one based on products to one based on services is an idea worthy of debate and evaluation for improving the efficiency of pest management. Contemporary information technology enhancing monitoring and coordination warrants attention in this debate. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry}, number={11}, journal={PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Chappell, Thomas M. and Magarey, Roger D. and Kurtz, Ryan W. and Trexler, Christina M. and Pallipparambil, Godshen R. and Hain, Ernie F.}, year={2019}, month={Nov}, pages={2865–2872} }
 @article{magarey_chappell_trexler_pallipparambil_hain_2019, title={Social Ecological System Tools for Improving Crop Pest Management}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2155-7470"]}, DOI={10.1093/jipm/pmz004}, abstractNote={AbstractIntegrated pest management (IPM) is a valuable tool for reducing pesticide use and for pesticide resistance management. Despite the success of IPM over the last 50 yr, significant challenges remain to improving IPM delivery and adoption. We believe that insights can be obtained from the field of Social Ecological Systems (SES). We first describe the complexity of crop pest management and how various social actors influence grower decision making, including adoption of IPM. Second, we discuss how crop pest management fits the definition of an SES, including such factors as scale, dynamic complexities, critical resources, and important social–ecological interactions. Third, we describe heuristics and simulation models as tools to understand complex SES and develop new strategies. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion of how social processes and SES techniques could improve crop pest management in the future, including the delivery of IPM, while reducing negative social and environmental impacts.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Chappell, Thomas M. and Trexler, Christina M. and Pallipparambil, Godshen R. and Hain, Ernie F.}, year={2019}, month={Feb} }
 @article{tait_grassi_pfab_crava_dalton_magarey_ometto_vezzulli_rossi-stacconi_gottardello_et al._2018, title={Large-scale spatial dynamics of Drosophila suzukii in Trentino, Italy}, volume={91}, ISSN={["1612-4766"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10340-018-0985-x}, number={4}, journal={JOURNAL OF PEST SCIENCE}, author={Tait, Gabriella and Grassi, Alberto and Pfab, Ferdinand and Crava, Cristina M. and Dalton, Daniel T. and Magarey, Roger and Ometto, Lino and Vezzulli, Silvia and Rossi-Stacconi, M. Valerio and Gottardello, Angela and et al.}, year={2018}, month={Sep}, pages={1213–1224} }
 @inbook{ojiambo_david_mehra_christie_magarey_2018, title={Stability of the Spread Parameter of the Power Law Model for Dispersal Gradients of Disease Epidemics}, booktitle={International Congress of Plant Pathology (ICPP) 2018: Plant Health in A Global Economy}, publisher={APSNET}, author={Ojiambo, Peter Sande and David, G. and Mehra, L. and Christie, D. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={2018} }
 @article{magarey_newton_hong_takeuchi_christie_jarnevich_kohl_damus_higgins_millar_et al._2018, title={Comparison of four modeling tools for the prediction of potential distribution for non-indigenous weeds in the United States}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1573-1464"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-017-1567-1}, DOI={10.1007/s10530-017-1567-1}, number={3}, journal={BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Magarey, Roger and Newton, Leslie and Hong, Seung Cheon and Takeuchi, Yu and Christie, David and Jarnevich, Catherine S. and Kohl, Lisa and Damus, Martin and Higgins, Steven I. and Millar, Leah and et al.}, year={2018}, month={Mar}, pages={679–694} }
 @article{ojiambo_gent_mehra_christie_magarey_2017, title={Focus expansion and stability of the spread parameter estimate of the power law model for dispersal gradients}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2167-8359"]}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/28649473}, DOI={10.7717/peerj.3465}, abstractNote={Empirical and mechanistic modeling indicate that pathogens transmitted via aerially dispersed inoculum follow a power law, resulting in dispersive epidemic waves. The spread parameter (b) of the power law model, which is an indicator of the distance of the epidemic wave front from an initial focus per unit time, has been found to be approximately 2 for several animal and plant diseases over a wide range of spatial scales under conditions favorable for disease spread. Although disease spread and epidemic expansion can be influenced by several factors, the stability of the parameter b over multiple epidemic years has not been determined. Additionally, the size of the initial epidemic area is expected to be strongly related to the final epidemic extent for epidemics, but the stability of this relationship is also not well established. Here, empirical data of cucurbit downy mildew epidemics collected from 2008 to 2014 were analyzed using a spatio-temporal model of disease spread that incorporates logistic growth in time with a power law function for dispersal. Final epidemic extent ranged from 4.16 ×108 km2 in 2012 to 6.44 ×108 km2 in 2009. Current epidemic extent became significantly associated (P < 0.0332; 0.56 < R2 < 0.99) with final epidemic area beginning near the end of April, with the association increasing monotonically to 1.0 by the end of the epidemic season in July. The position of the epidemic wave-front became exponentially more distant with time, and epidemic velocity increased linearly with distance. Slopes from the temporal and spatial regression models varied with about a 2.5-fold range across epidemic years. Estimates of b varied substantially ranging from 1.51 to 4.16 across epidemic years. We observed a significant b ×time (or distance) interaction (P < 0.05) for epidemic years where data were well described by the power law model. These results suggest that the spread parameter b may not be stable over multiple epidemic years. However, b ≈ 2 may be considered the lower limit of the distance traveled by epidemic wave-fronts for aerially transmitted pathogens that follow a power law dispersal function.}, journal={PEERJ}, author={Ojiambo, Peter S. and Gent, David H. and Mehra, Lucky K. and Christie, David and Magarey, Roger}, year={2017}, month={Jun} }
 @book{orlandini_magarey_park_sporleder_kroschel_hatfield_prueger_2017, place={New York}, title={Methods of agroclimatology: modeling approaches for pests and diseases}, publisher={John Wiley & Sons, Ltd}, author={Orlandini, S. and Magarey, R.D. and Park, E.W. and Sporleder, M. and Kroschel, J. and Hatfield, J.L. and Prueger, J.H.}, year={2017} }
 @article{donatelli_magarey_bregaglio_willocquet_whish_savary_2017, title={Modelling the impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems}, volume={155}, ISSN={["1873-2267"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.019}, abstractNote={The improvement and application of pest and disease models to analyse and predict yield losses including those due to climate change is still a challenge for the scientific community. Applied modelling of crop diseases and pests has mostly targeted the development of support capabilities to schedule scouting or pesticide applications. There is a need for research to both broaden the scope and evaluate the capabilities of pest and disease models. Key research questions not only involve the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on known pathosystems, but also on new pathogens which could alter the (still incompletely documented) impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems. Yield loss data collected in various current environments may no longer represent a adequate reference to develop tactical, decision-oriented, models for plant diseases and pests and their impacts, because of the ongoing changes in climate patterns. Process-based agricultural simulation modelling, on the other hand, appears to represent a viable methodology to estimate the impacts of these potential effects. A new generation of tools based on state-of-the-art knowledge and technologies is needed to allow systems analysis including key processes and their dynamics over appropriate suitable range of environmental variables. This paper offers a brief overview of the current state of development in coupling pest and disease models to crop models, and discusses technical and scientific challenges. We propose a five-stage roadmap to improve the simulation of the impacts caused by plant diseases and pests; i) improve the quality and availability of data for model inputs; ii) improve the quality and availability of data for model evaluation; iii) improve the integration with crop models; iv) improve the processes for model evaluation; and v) develop a community of plant pest and disease modelers.}, journal={AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS}, author={Donatelli, M. and Magarey, R. D. and Bregaglio, S. and Willocquet, L. and Whish, J. P. M. and Savary, S.}, year={2017}, month={Jul}, pages={213–224} }
 @article{willbur_fall_bloomingdale_byrne_chapman_isard_magarey_mccaghey_mueller_russo_et al._2018, title={Weather-Based Models for Assessing the Risk of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum Apothecial Presence in Soybean (Glycine max) Fields}, volume={102}, ISSN={["1943-7692"]}, DOI={10.1094/pdis-04-17-0504-re}, abstractNote={ Sclerotinia stem rot (SSR) epidemics in soybean, caused by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, are currently responsible for annual yield reductions in the United States of up to 1 million metric tons. In-season disease management is largely dependent on chemical control but its efficiency and cost-effectiveness depends on both the chemistry used and the risk of apothecia formation, germination, and further dispersal of ascospores during susceptible soybean growth stages. Hence, accurate prediction of the S. sclerotiorum apothecial risk during the soybean flowering period could enable farmers to improve in-season SSR management. From 2014 to 2016, apothecial presence or absence was monitored in three irrigated (n = 1,505 plot-level observations) and six nonirrigated (n = 2,361 plot-level observations) field trials located in Iowa (n = 156), Michigan (n = 1,400), and Wisconsin (n = 2,310), for a total of 3,866 plot-level observations. Hourly air temperature, relative humidity, dew point, wind speed, leaf wetness, and rainfall were also monitored continuously, throughout the season, at each location using high-resolution gridded weather data. Logistic regression models were developed for irrigated and nonirrigated conditions using apothecial presence as a binary response variable. Agronomic variables (row width) and weather-related variables (defined as 30-day moving averages, prior to apothecial presence) were tested for their predictive ability. In irrigated soybean fields, apothecial presence was best explained by row width (r = −0.41, P < 0.0001), 30-day moving averages of daily maximum air temperature (r = 0.27, P < 0.0001), and daily maximum relative humidity (r = 0.16, P < 0.05). In nonirrigated fields, apothecial presence was best explained by using moving averages of daily maximum air temperature (r = –0.30, P < 0.0001) and wind speed (r = –0.27, P < 0.0001). These models correctly predicted (overall accuracy of 67 to 70%) apothecial presence during the soybean flowering period for four independent datasets (n = 1,102 plot-level observations or 30 daily mean observations). }, number={1}, journal={PLANT DISEASE}, author={Willbur, Jaime F. and Fall, Mamadou L. and Bloomingdale, Christopher and Byrne, Adam M. and Chapman, Scott A. and Isard, Scott A. and Magarey, Roger D. and McCaghey, Megan M. and Mueller, Brian D. and Russo, Joseph M. and et al.}, year={2018}, month={Jan}, pages={73–84} }
 @article{magarey_isard_2017, title={A Troubleshooting Guide for Mechanistic Plant Pest Forecast Models}, volume={8}, ISSN={["2155-7470"]}, DOI={10.1093/jipm/pmw015}, abstractNote={There is copious literature on development and validation of models to forecast risk to crops from arthropods and diseases; however, there is little published on causes of failure associated with these models. This manuscript provides mechanistic model builders and users with a list of likely problems, potential causes, possible solutions, and associated references. The problems are divided into four categories: environmental inputs, model construction and parameterization, validation, and implementation. The list is based on the authors' extensive experiences developing and running mechanistic modeling systems. A multidisciplinary approach involving researchers with expertise in pest biology, crop management, meteorology, and information technology is recommended for delivering the most effective pest forecast models.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Isard, Scott A.}, year={2017}, month={Jan} }
 @article{cruz_magarey_christie_fowler_fernandes_bockus_valent_stack_2016, title={Climate Suitability for Magnaporthe oryzae Triticum Pathotype in the United States}, volume={100}, ISSN={["1943-7692"]}, DOI={10.1094/pdis-09-15-1006-re}, abstractNote={ Wheat blast, caused by the Triticum pathotype of Magnaporthe oryzae, is an emerging disease considered to be a limiting factor to wheat production in various countries. Given the importance of wheat blast as a high-consequence plant disease, weather-based infection models were used to estimate the probabilities of M. oryzae Triticum establishment and wheat blast outbreaks in the United States. The models identified significant disease risk in some areas. With the threshold levels used, the models predicted that the climate was adequate for maintaining M. oryzae Triticum populations in 40% of winter wheat production areas of the United States. Disease outbreak threshold levels were only reached in 25% of the country. In Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida, the probability of years suitable for outbreaks was greater than 70%. The models generated in this study should provide the foundation for more advanced models in the future, and the results reported could be used to prioritize research efforts regarding the biology of M. oryzae Triticum and the epidemiology of the wheat blast disease. }, number={10}, journal={PLANT DISEASE}, author={Cruz, Christian D. and Magarey, Roger D. and Christie, David N. and Fowler, Glenn A. and Fernandes, Jose M. and Bockus, William W. and Valent, Barbara and Stack, James P.}, year={2016}, month={Oct}, pages={1979–1987} }
 @article{fourie_schutte_carstens_hattingh_paul_magarey_gottwald_yonow_kriticos_2017, title={Scientific critique of the paper "Climatic distribution of citrus black spot caused by Phyllosticta citricarpa. A historical analysis of disease spread in South Africa" by Martinez-Minaya et al. (2015)}, volume={148}, ISSN={["1573-8469"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10658-016-1056-x}, number={3}, journal={EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PLANT PATHOLOGY}, author={Fourie, Paul H. and Schutte, Gerhardus C. and Carstens, Elma and Hattingh, Vaughan and Paul, Ida and Magarey, Roger D. and Gottwald, Tim R. and Yonow, Tania and Kriticos, Darren J.}, year={2017}, month={Jul}, pages={497–502} }
 @article{isard_russo_magarey_golod_vankirk_2015, title={Integrated Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education (iPiPE): Progress Through Sharing}, volume={6}, ISSN={["2155-7470"]}, DOI={10.1093/jipm/pmv013}, abstractNote={Food security and IPM are best served by a national infrastructure of private and public professionals who routinely monitor crop health and pest incidence and then translate this knowledge to a shared platform enabling rapid dissemination of mitigation measures to limit crop loss. The Integrated Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education (iPiPE) provides such an infrastructure with cyber-age tools, information products, and expert commentary for detection and management of endemic, new, and exotic pests that threaten U.S. crops. By categorizing pests, data, and users, it enables sharing of observations while protecting the privacy of participating individuals, companies, and government agencies. The iPiPE incentivizes growers and consultants to submit observations on important pests by providing tools and information for timely management decision making. It is composed of a growing number of Crop-Pest Programs. Located across the nation and coordinated by Extension professionals, each Crop-Pest Programs addresses a variety of crops and pests while providing undergraduate students with hands-on extension and diagnostic experiences. The iPiPE was initiated in 2010, and received funding to expand as a Cooperative Agricultural Program (CAP) from the USDA AFRI Food Security Challenge Area in 2015. An important iPiPE Cooperative Agricultural Program goal is to catalyze and support a national network of similar IT platforms operated by various organizations, focused on providing information to enhance IPM and food security. An important outcome will be a national infrastructure for sharing pest observations in near real-time and for archiving them in a national depository to enable future research using geographically extensive, multiyear databases.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT}, author={Isard, Scott A. and Russo, Joseph M. and Magarey, Roger D. and Golod, Julie and VanKirk, James R.}, year={2015}, month={Jan} }
 @article{parker_saunders_bontrager_weitz_hendricks_magarey_suiter_gilbert_2015, title={Phylogenetic structure and host abundance drive disease pressure in communities}, volume={520}, ISSN={["1476-4687"]}, DOI={10.1038/nature14372}, abstractNote={Rare species may have an advantage in a community by suffering less from disease; here it is shown that, because pathogens are shared among species, it is not just the abundance of a particular species but the structure of the whole community that affects exposure to disease. One advantage that rare species have in a community is that they may suffer less from disease — and pathogen pressure increases as a host species becomes more abundant. In a study of a Californian grassland habitat, Ingrid Parker et al. demonstrate that the structure of the whole community also influences exposure to disease. They show that plants suffer more disease when they have evolutionarily close species around them, reflecting the fact that many pathogens can attack several species, and as they move from host to host they tend to favour species that are closely related. The authors develop a model to predict the incidence of disease in different species of plants in natural communities, and successfully predict the degree of disease pressure on newly introduced plant species. They also show that this phylogenetically distant species advantage might contribute to the invasiveness of introduced species. Pathogens play an important part in shaping the structure and dynamics of natural communities, because species are not affected by them equally1,2. A shared goal of ecology and epidemiology is to predict when a species is most vulnerable to disease. A leading hypothesis asserts that the impact of disease should increase with host abundance, producing a ‘rare-species advantage’3,4,5. However, the impact of a pathogen may be decoupled from host abundance, because most pathogens infect more than one species, leading to pathogen spillover onto closely related species6,7. Here we show that the phylogenetic and ecological structure of the surrounding community can be important predictors of disease pressure. We found that the amount of tissue lost to disease increased with the relative abundance of a species across a grassland plant community, and that this rare-species advantage had an additional phylogenetic component: disease pressure was stronger on species with many close relatives. We used a global model of pathogen sharing as a function of relatedness between hosts, which provided a robust predictor of relative disease pressure at the local scale. In our grassland, the total amount of disease was most accurately explained not by the abundance of the focal host alone, but by the abundance of all species in the community weighted by their phylogenetic distance to the host. Furthermore, the model strongly predicted observed disease pressure for 44 novel host species we introduced experimentally to our study site, providing evidence for a mechanism to explain why phylogenetically rare species are more likely to become invasive when introduced8,9. Our results demonstrate how the phylogenetic and ecological structure of communities can have a key role in disease dynamics, with implications for the maintenance of biodiversity, biotic resistance against introduced weeds, and the success of managed plants in agriculture and forestry.}, number={7548}, journal={NATURE}, author={Parker, Ingrid M. and Saunders, Megan and Bontrager, Megan and Weitz, Andrew P. and Hendricks, Rebecca and Magarey, Roger and Suiter, Karl and Gilbert, Gregory S.}, year={2015}, month={Apr}, pages={542-+} }
 @article{magarey_hong_fourie_christie_miles_schutte_gottwald_2015, title={Prediction of Phyllosticta citricarpa using an hourly infection model and validation with prevalence data from South Africa and Australia}, volume={75}, ISSN={["1873-6904"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.cropro.2015.05.016}, abstractNote={An hourly infection model was used for a risk assessment of citrus black spot (CBS) caused by Phyllosticta citricarpa. The infection model contained a temperature-moisture response function and also included functions to simulate ascospore release and dispersal of pycnidiospores. A validation data set of 18 locations from South Africa and Australia was developed based on locations with known citrus black spot prevalence. An additional 67 sites from Europe and the United States with unknown prevalence were also identified. The model was run for each location with 9 years of hourly weather data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) database. The infection scores for the sites with known prevalence where ranked and a threshold for suitability in a given year was derived from the average score of the lowest ranked moderate prevalence site. The results of the simulation confirm that locations in Florida were high risk while most locations in California and Europe were not at risk. The European location with the highest risk score was Andravida, Greece which had 67% of years suitable for ascosporic infection but only 11% of years were suitable for pycnidiosporic infection. There were six other sites in Europe that had frequency of years suitable for ascosporic infection greater than 22% including Pontecagnano, Italy; Kekrya, Greece; Reggio Calabria, Italy; Cozzo Spadaro, Italy; Messina, Italy; and Siracusa, Italy. Of these six sites only Reggio Calabria had a frequency of years suitable for pycnidiosporic infection greater than 0%. These six sites are predicted to have prevalence similar or less than Messina, South Africa, i.e. low and occasional. Other sites in Europe would best be described as likely to have no prevalence based on very low simulated scores for both spore types. Although Andravida had a similar risk of infection to moderate locations in South Africa there was a difference in the seasonality of infection periods. The ascosporic infection period score was similar between the two sites, but Andravida had a much lower pycnidiosporic infection score in the middle of the period of fruit susceptibility than Addo, South Africa. In Europe favorable climatic conditions are discontinuous, i.e., there is a low frequency of suitable seasons. This raises doubts about the ability of the pathogen to persist at a location and cause disease loss when favorable seasons reoccur. These results suggest that Europe is less suitable for CBS than suggested by an earlier study produced by the European Food Safety Authority using a similar model. The findings from our model simulations suggest that only a few isolated locations in the extreme south of Europe are likely to have a low to marginal risk of P. citricarpa establishment.}, journal={CROP PROTECTION}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Hong, Seung Cheon and Fourie, Paul H. and Christie, David N. and Miles, Andrew K. and Schutte, Gerhardus C. and Gottwald, Timothy R.}, year={2015}, month={Sep}, pages={104–114} }
 @article{hong_magarey_borchert_vargas_souder_2015, title={Site-specific temporal and spatial validation of a generic plant pest forecast system with observations of Bactrocera dorsalis (oriental fruit fly)}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1314-2488"]}, DOI={10.3897/neobiota.27.5177}, abstractNote={This study introduces a simple generic model, the Generic Pest Forecast System (GPFS), for simulating the relative populations of non-indigenous arthropod pests in space and time. The model was designed to calculate the population index or relative population using hourly weather data as influenced by de velopmental rate, high and low temperature mortalities and wet soil moisture mortality. Each module contains biological parameters derived from controlled experiments. The hourly weather data used for the model inputs were obtained from the National Center of Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) at a 38 km spatial resolution. A combination of spatial and site-specific temporal data was used to validate the GPFS models. The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), was selected as a case study for this research because it is climatically driven and a major pest of fruit production. Results from the GPFS model were compared with field B. dorsalis survey data in three locations: 1) Bangalore, India; 2) Hawaii, USA; and 3) Wuhan, China. The GPFS captured the initial outbreaks and major population peaks of B. dorsalis reasonably well, although agreement varied between sites. An index of agreement test indicated that GPFS model simulations matched with field B. dorsalis observation data with a range between 0.50 and 0.94 (1.0 as a perfect match). Of the three locations, Wuhan showed}, journal={NEOBIOTA}, author={Hong, Seung Cheon and Magarey, Roger D. and Borchert, Daniel M. and Vargas, Roger I. and Souder, Steven K.}, year={2015}, pages={37–67} }
 @article{gilbert_briggs_magarey_2015, title={The Impact of Plant Enemies Shows a Phylogenetic Signal}, volume={10}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0123758}, abstractNote={The host ranges of plant pathogens and herbivores are phylogenetically constrained, so that closely related plant species are more likely to share pests and pathogens. Here we conducted a reanalysis of data from published experimental studies to test whether the severity of host-enemy interactions follows a similar phylogenetic signal. The impact of herbivores and pathogens on their host plants declined steadily with phylogenetic distance from the most severely affected focal hosts. The steepness of this phylogenetic signal was similar to that previously measured for binary-response host ranges. Enemy behavior and development showed similar, but weaker phylogenetic signal, with oviposition and growth rates declining with evolutionary distance from optimal hosts. Phylogenetic distance is an informative surrogate for estimating the likely impacts of a pest or pathogen on potential plant hosts, and may be particularly useful in early assessing risk from emergent plant pests, where critical decisions must be made with incomplete host records.}, number={4}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Gilbert, Gregory S. and Briggs, Heather M. and Magarey, Roger}, year={2015}, month={Apr} }
 @misc{magarey_borchert_fowler_hong_2015, title={The NCSU/APHIS plant pest forecasting system (NAPPFAST).}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781780643946.0082}, DOI={10.1079/9781780643946.0082}, abstractNote={Abstract
        This chapter describes the North-Carolina-State-University/Animal-and-Plant-Health-Inspection-Service Plant Pest Forecasting System (NAPPFAST). NAPPFAST, developed for pest risk modelling and mapping, was formerly used to support pest detection, emergency response and risk analysis for the US Department of Agriculture. NAPPFAST employs an internet-based graphical user interface to link weather databases with interactive biological model templates. The weather databases include historical daily weather databases for North America and the world. The templates include degree-days, generic empirical models, infection periods and the Generic Pest Forecast System (GPFS). The GPFS, currently in development, is a model that uses hourly inputs and includes modules for development rate, hot and cold mortality, population and potential damage. In this chapter, three examples illustrate the capabilities of NAPPFAST: (i) pathway analysis for Lymantria dispar asiatica (Asian gypsy moth); (ii) epidemiological modelling for Phytophthora ramorum (the cause of sudden oak death and other plant diseases); and (iii) simple population modelling for Bactrocera dorsalis (oriental fruit fly). One advanced feature of NAPPFAST is cyber-infrastructure that supports the sharing of products and data between modellers and end users. The infrastructure includes tools for managing user access, uploading and correcting geographic coordinates for pest observations, and an interactive geographic information system environment for viewing input data and model products. NAPPFAST was used by the US Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine, although access has been granted to government and university cooperators working on risk analysis of invasive alien species.}, journal={Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species}, publisher={CABI}, author={Magarey, R. D. and Borchert, D. M. and Fowler, G. A. and Hong, S. C.}, year={2015}, pages={82–96} }
 @article{graham_gottwald_timmer_bergamin_bosch_irey_taylor_magarey_takeuchi_2014, title={Response to "Potential distribution of citrus black spot in the United States based on climatic conditions", Er et al. 2013}, volume={139}, number={2}, journal={European Journal of Plant Pathology}, author={Graham, J. H. and Gottwald, T. R. and Timmer, L. W. and Bergamin, A. and Bosch, F. and Irey, M. S. and Taylor, E. and Magarey, R. D. and Takeuchi, Y.}, year={2014}, pages={231–234} }
 @article{koch_yemshanov_haack_magarey_2014, title={Using a Network Model to Assess Risk of Forest Pest Spread via Recreational Travel}, volume={9}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0102105}, abstractNote={Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially infested firewood. We constructed the model from US National Recreation Reservation Service data documenting more than seven million visitor reservations (including visitors from Canada) at campgrounds nationwide. This bi-directional model can be used to identify likely origin and destination locations for a camper-transported pest. To support broad-scale decision making, we used the model to generate summary maps for 48 US states and seven Canadian provinces that depict the most likely origins of campers traveling from outside the target state or province. The maps generally showed one of two basic spatial patterns of out-of-state (or out-of-province) origin risk. In the eastern United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were usually found in a localized region restricted to portions of adjacent states. In the western United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were typically associated with major urban areas located far from the state of interest. A few states and the Canadian provinces showed characteristics of both patterns. These model outputs can guide deployment of resources for surveillance, firewood inspections, or other activities. Significantly, the contrasting map patterns indicate that no single response strategy is appropriate for all states and provinces. If most out-of-state campers are traveling from distant areas, it may be effective to deploy resources at key points along major roads (e.g., interstate highways), since these locations could effectively represent bottlenecks of camper movement. If most campers are from nearby areas, they may have many feasible travel routes, so a more widely distributed deployment may be necessary.}, number={7}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Koch, Frank H. and Yemshanov, Denys and Haack, Robert A. and Magarey, Roger D.}, year={2014}, month={Jul} }
 @misc{luck_campbell_magarey_isard_aurambout_finlay_2013, title={Climate Change and Plant Biosecurity: Implications for Policy}, ISBN={9789400773646 9789400773653}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7365-3_21}, DOI={10.1007/978-94-007-7365-3_21}, journal={The Handbook of Plant Biosecurity}, publisher={Springer Netherlands}, author={Luck, Jo and Campbell, Ian D. and Magarey, Roger and Isard, Scott and Aurambout, Jean-Philippe and Finlay, Kyla}, year={2013}, month={Oct}, pages={655–691} }
 @inbook{kalaris_fieselmann_magarey_colunga-garcia_roda_hardie_cogger_hammond_martin_whittle_2013, place={Netherlands}, title={The Role of Surveillance Methods and Technologies in Plant Biosecurity}, ISBN={9789400773646 9789400773653}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7365-3_11}, DOI={10.1007/978-94-007-7365-3_11}, booktitle={The Handbook of Plant Biosecurity}, publisher={Springer}, author={Kalaris, Tom and Fieselmann, Daniel and Magarey, Roger and Colunga-Garcia, Manuel and Roda, Amy and Hardie, Darryl and Cogger, Naomi and Hammond, Nichole and Martin, P. A. Tony and Whittle, Peter}, editor={Gordh, G. and McKirdy, S.Editors}, year={2013}, month={Oct}, pages={309–337} }
 @article{colunga-garcia_haack_magarey_borchert_2013, title={Understanding trade pathways to target biosecurity surveillance}, volume={18}, ISSN={1314-2488 1619-0033}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.18.4019}, DOI={10.3897/neobiota.18.4019}, abstractNote={Increasing trends in global trade make it extremely difficult to prevent the entry of all potential invasive species (IS). Establishing early detection strategies thus becomes an important part of the continuum used to reduce the introduction of invasive species. One part necessary to ensure the success of these strategies is the determination of priority survey areas based on invasion pressure. We used a pathway-centred conceptual model of pest invasion to address these questions: what role does global trade play in invasion pressure of plant ecosystems and how could an understanding of this role be used to enhance early detection strategies? We concluded that the relative level of invasion pressure for destination ecosystems can be influenced by the intensity of pathway usage (import volume and frequency), the number and type of pathways with a similar destination, and the number of different ecological regions that serve as the source for imports to the same destination. As these factors increase, pressure typically intensifies because of increasing a) propagule pressure, b) likelihood of transporting pests with higher intrinsic invasion potential, and c) likelihood of transporting pests into ecosystems with higher invasibility. We used maritime containerized imports of live plants into the contiguous U.S. as a case study to illustrate the practical implications of the model to determine hotspot areas of relative invasion pressure for agricultural and forest ecosystems (two ecosystems with high potential invasibility). Our results illustrated the importance of how a pathway-centred model could be used to highlight potential target areas for early detection strategies for IS. Many of the hotspots in agricultural and forest ecosystems were within major U.S. metropolitan areas. Invasion ecologists can utilize pathway-centred conceptual models to a) better understand the role of human-mediated pathways in pest establishment, b) enhance current methodologies for IS risk analysis, and c) develop strategies for IS early detection-rapid response programs.}, journal={NeoBiota}, publisher={Pensoft Publishers}, author={Colunga-Garcia, Manuel and Haack, Robert and Magarey, Roger and Borchert, Daniel}, year={2013}, month={Sep}, pages={103–118} }
 @article{koch_yemshanov_magarey_smith_2012, title={Dispersal of Invasive Forest Insects via Recreational Firewood: A Quantitative Analysis}, volume={105}, ISSN={["1938-291X"]}, DOI={10.1603/ec11270}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Recreational travel is a recognized vector for the spread of invasive species in North America. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of the risks posed by such travel and the associated transport of firewood. In this study, we analyzed the risk of forest insect spread with firewood and estimated related dispersal parameters for application in geographically explicit invasion models. Our primary data source was the U.S. National Recreation Reservation Service database, which records camper reservations at >2,500 locations nationwide. For >7 million individual reservations made between 2004 and 2009 (including visits from Canada), we calculated the distance between visitor home address and campground location. We constructed an empirical dispersal kernel (i.e., the probability distribution of the travel distances) from these “origin-destination” data, and then fitted the data with various theoretical distributions. We found the data to be strongly leptokurtic (fat-tailed) and fairly well fit by the unbounded Johnson and lognormal distributions. Most campers (≈53%) traveled <100 km, but ≈10% traveled >500 km (and as far as 5,500 km). Additionally, we examined the impact of geographic region, specific destinations (major national parks), and specific origin locations (major cities) on the shape of the dispersal kernel, and found that mixture distributions (i.e., theoretical distribution functions composed of multiple univariate distributions) may fit better in some circumstances. Although only a limited amount of all transported firewood is likely to be infested by forest insects, this still represents a considerable increase in dispersal potential beyond the insects' natural spread capabilities.}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ENTOMOLOGY}, author={Koch, Frank H. and Yemshanov, Denys and Magarey, Roger D. and Smith, William D.}, year={2012}, month={Apr}, pages={438–450} }
 @inproceedings{koch_yemshanov_magarey_colunga-garcia_smith_2012, title={Evaluating the forest pest invasion potential of trade-related and recreational transportation pathways}, author={Koch, F.H. and Yemshanov, D. and Magarey, R.D. and Colunga-Garcia, M. and Smith, W.D.}, year={2012} }
 @article{gilbert_magarey_suiter_webb_2012, title={Evolutionary tools for phytosanitary risk analysis: phylogenetic signal as a predictor of host range of plant pests and pathogens}, volume={5}, ISSN={["1752-4571"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1752-4571.2012.00265.x}, abstractNote={AbstractAssessing risk from a novel pest or pathogen requires knowing which local plant species are susceptible. Empirical data on the local host range of novel pests are usually lacking, but we know that some pests are more likely to attack closely related plant species than species separated by greater evolutionary distance. We use the Global Pest and Disease Database, an internal database maintained by the United States Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service – Plant Protection and Quarantine Division (USDA APHIS‐PPQ), to evaluate the strength of the phylogenetic signal in host range for nine major groups of plant pests and pathogens. Eight of nine groups showed significant phylogenetic signal in host range. Additionally, pests and pathogens with more known hosts attacked a phylogenetically broader range of hosts. This suggests that easily obtained data – the number of known hosts and the phylogenetic distance between known hosts and other species of interest – can be used to predict which plant species are likely to be susceptible to a particular pest. This can facilitate rapid assessment of risk from novel pests and pathogens when empirical host range data are not yet available and guide efficient collection of empirical data for risk evaluation.}, number={8}, journal={EVOLUTIONARY APPLICATIONS}, author={Gilbert, Gregory S. and Magarey, Roger and Suiter, Karl and Webb, Campbell O.}, year={2012}, month={Dec}, pages={869–878} }
 @article{cruz_stack_magarey_fowler_2012, title={Probability of Magnaporthe oryzae (Triticum pathotype) introduction into the United States: A quantitative pathway analysis}, volume={102}, number={7}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Cruz, C.D. and Stack, J.P. and Magarey, R.D. and Fowler, G.A.}, year={2012}, pages={3340} }
 @article{cruz_peterson_bockus_farman_pedley_stack_magarey_valent_2012, title={Wheat blast: An emerging threat}, volume={102}, number={9}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Cruz, C.C. and Peterson, G.L. and Bockus, W.W. and Farman, M.L. and Pedley, K.F. and Stack, J.P. and Magarey, R. and Valent, B.}, year={2012}, pages={3} }
 @article{jarosik_honek_magarey_skuhrovec_2011, title={Developmental Database for Phenology Models: Related Insect and Mite Species Have Similar Thermal Requirements}, volume={104}, ISSN={["1938-291X"]}, DOI={10.1603/ec11247}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Two values of thermal requirements, the lower developmental threshold (LDT), that is, the temperature at which development ceases, and the sum of effective temperatures, that is, day degrees above the LDT control the development of ectotherms and are used in phenology models to predict time at which the development of individual stages of a species will be completed. To assist in the rapid development of phenology models, we merged a previously published database of thermal requirements for insects, gathered by online search in CAB Abstracts, with independently collected data for insects and mites from original studies. The merged database comprises developmental times at various constant temperatures on 1,054 insect and mite species, many of them in several populations, mostly pests and their natural enemies, from all over the world. We show that closely related species share similar thermal requirements and therefore, for a species with unknown thermal requirements, the value of LDT and sum of effective temperatures of its most related species from the database can be used.}, number={6}, journal={JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ENTOMOLOGY}, author={Jarosik, Vojtech and Honek, Alois and Magarey, Roger D. and Skuhrovec, Jiri}, year={2011}, month={Dec}, pages={1870–1876} }
 @inproceedings{fowler_garrett_neeley_magarey_borchert_spears_2011, place={Newtown Square, PA}, title={Economic analysis of light brown apple moth using GIS and quantitative modeling}, number={NRS-P-75.}, booktitle={Proceedings. 21st US Department of Agriculture interagency research forum on invasive species 2010}, publisher={US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station}, author={Fowler, Glenn and Garrett, L. and Neeley, A. and Magarey, R. and Borchert, D. and Spears, B.}, editor={McManus, Katherine A. and Gottschalk, Kurt W.Editors}, year={2011}, pages={87} }
 @article{elizalde jiménez_hernández morales_leyva mir_nava díaz_sequeira_fowler_margarey_2011, title={Evaluación del Riesgo de Acidovorax avenae Subsp. citrulli Asociada a Semilla de Sandía de Importación a México}, volume={29}, number={2}, journal={Revista mexicana de fitopatología}, author={Elizalde Jiménez, N. A. and Hernández Morales, J. and Leyva Mir, S.G. and Nava Díaz, C. and Sequeira, R.A. and Fowler, G. and Margarey, R.}, year={2011}, pages={133–145} }
 @article{dunkle_dolezal_chaky_borchert_russo_magarey_2011, title={Progress on Industry Pest Information Platform (iPIPE)}, volume={101}, number={6}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Dunkle, R.L. and Dolezal, W.E. and Chaky, J.L. and Borchert, D.M. and Russo, J. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={2011}, pages={46} }
 @article{elizalde jiménez_hernández morales_leyva mir_nava díaz_sequeira_fowler_magarey_2011, title={Risk Assessment of Acidovorax avenae Subsp. citrulli Associated to Watermelon Seed Imported to Mexico}, volume={29}, number={2}, journal={Revista mexicana de fitopatología}, author={Elizalde Jiménez, N. A. and Hernández Morales, J. and Leyva Mir, G. and Nava Díaz, C. and Sequeira, R.A. and Fowler, G. and Magarey, R.}, year={2011}, pages={133–145} }
 @article{magarey_borchert_engle_colunga-garcia_koch_yemshanov_2011, title={Risk maps for targeting exotic plant pest detection programs in the United States}, volume={41}, ISSN={0250-8052}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2338.2011.02437.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1365-2338.2011.02437.x}, abstractNote={In the United States, pest risk maps are used by the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey for spatial and temporal targeting of exotic plant pest detection programs. Methods are described to create standardized host distribution, climate and pathway risk maps for the top nationally ranked exotic pest targets. Two examples are provided to illustrate the risk mapping process: late wilt of corn (Harpophora maydis) and the giant African land snail (Achatina fulica). Host risk maps were made from county‐level crop census and USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis data, respectively. Climate risk maps were made using the North Carolina State University–USDA APHIS Plant Pest Forecasting System (NAPPFAST), which uses a web‐based graphical user interface to link climatic and geographic databases with interactive templates for biological modelling. Pathway risk maps were made using freight flow allocation data sets to move commodities from 7 world regions to 3162 US urban areas. A new aggregation technique based on the Pareto dominance principle was used to integrate maps of host abundance, climate and pathway risks into a single decision support product. The maps are publicly available online (http://www.nappfast.org). Key recommendations to improve the risk maps and their delivery systems are discussed.}, number={1}, journal={EPPO Bulletin}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Magarey, R. D. and Borchert, D. M. and Engle, J. S. and Colunga-Garcia, M. and Koch, F. H. and Yemshanov, D.}, year={2011}, month={Mar}, pages={46–56} }
 @article{colunga-garcia_magarey_haack_gage_qi_2010, title={Enhancing early detection of exotic pests in agricultural and forest ecosystems using an urban-gradient framework}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1051-0761"]}, DOI={10.1890/09-0193.1}, abstractNote={Urban areas are hubs of international transport and therefore are major gateways for exotic pests. Applying an urban gradient to analyze this pathway could provide insight into the ecological processes involved in human‐mediated invasions. We defined an urban gradient for agricultural and forest ecosystems in the contiguous United States to (1) assess whether ecosystems nearer more urbanized areas were at greater risk of invasion, and (2) apply this knowledge to enhance early detection of exotic pests. We defined the gradient using the tonnage of imported products in adjacent urban areas and their distance to nearby agricultural or forest land. County‐level detection reports for 39 exotic agricultural and forest pests of major economic importance were used to characterize invasions along the gradient. We found that counties with more exotic pests were nearer the urban end of the gradient. Assuming that the exotic species we analyzed represent typical invaders, then early detection efforts directed at 21–26% of U.S. agricultural and forest land would likely be able to detect 70% of invaded counties and 90% of the selected species. Applying an urban‐gradient framework to current monitoring strategies should enhance early detection efforts of exotic pests, facilitating optimization in allocating resources to areas at greater risk of future invasions.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Colunga-Garcia, Manuel and Magarey, Roger A. and Haack, Robert A. and Gage, Stuart H. and Qi, Jiaquo}, year={2010}, month={Mar}, pages={303–310} }
 @article{colunga-garcia_haack_magarey_margosian_2010, title={Modeling Spatial Establishment Patterns of Exotic Forest Insects in Urban Areas in Relation to Tree Cover and Propagule Pressure}, volume={103}, ISSN={["1938-291X"]}, DOI={10.1603/ec09203}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT As international trade increases so does the prominence of urban areas as gateways for exotic forest insects (EFI). Delimiting hot spots for invasions (i.e., areas where establishment is likely) within urban areas would facilitate monitoring efforts. We used a propagule-pressure framework to delimit establishment hot spots of a hypothetical generalist EFI in six U.S. urban areas: Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, New York-Newark, and Seattle. We assessed how urban tree cover and propagule pressure interact to delimit establishment hot spots and compared the location of these hot spots with actual recent U.S. detections of two EFI: the Asian strain of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), and Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). Using a lattice of 5-km-diameter cells for each urban area, we used the input data (urban tree cover and propagule pressure) to model establishment and Moran's I to delimit hot spots. We used urban population size and the area of commercial-industrial land use as indicators of propagule pressure in the model. Relative establishment of EFI was influenced more by the two propagule pressure indicators than by tree cover. The delimited land use-based hot spots for Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana and New York-Newark encompassed more of the actual detections of L. dispar and A. glabripennis, respectively, than the population-based hot spots. No significant difference occurred between hot spot types for A. glabripennis detections in the Chicago urban area. Implications of these findings for management and design of monitoring programs in urban areas are discussed.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ENTOMOLOGY}, author={Colunga-Garcia, Manuel and Haack, Robert A. and Magarey, Roger A. and Margosian, Margaret L.}, year={2010}, month={Feb}, pages={108–118} }
 @inproceedings{meissner_magarey_engle_borchert_walters_cave_2010, title={Pest Information, Detection and surveillance projects of the center for Plant Health Science and Technology of USDA-APHIS}, author={Meissner, H.E. and Magarey, R. and Engle, J. and Borchert, D. and Walters, T. and Cave, G.}, year={2010} }
 @article{venette_kriticos_magarey_koch_baker_worner_raboteaux_mckenney_dobesberger_yemshanov_et al._2010, title={Pest Risk Maps for Invasive Alien Species: A Roadmap for Improvement}, volume={60}, ISSN={["0006-3568"]}, DOI={10.1525/bio.2010.60.5.5}, abstractNote={Pest risk maps are powerful visual communication tools to describe where invasive alien species might arrive, establish, spread, or cause harmful impacts. These maps inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions, such as potential restrictions on international trade or the design of pest surveys and domestic quarantines. Diverse methods are available to create pest risk maps, and can potentially yield different depictions of risk for the same species. Inherent uncertainties about the biology of the invader, future climate conditions, and species interactions further complicate map interpretation. If multiple maps are available, risk managers must choose how to incorporate the various representations of risk into their decisionmaking process, and may make significant errors if they misunderstand what each map portrays. This article describes the need for pest risk maps, compares pest risk mapping methods, and recommends future research to improve such important decision-support tools.}, number={5}, journal={BIOSCIENCE}, author={Venette, Robert C. and Kriticos, Darren J. and Magarey, Roger D. and Koch, Frank H. and Baker, Richard H. A. and Worner, Susan P. and Raboteaux, Nadilia N. Gomez and McKenney, Daniel W. and Dobesberger, Erhard J. and Yemshanov, Denys and et al.}, year={2010}, month={May}, pages={349–362} }
 @article{koch_yemshanov_colunga-garcia_magarey_smith_2011, title={Potential establishment of alien-invasive forest insect species in the United States: where and how many?}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1573-1464"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10530-010-9883-8}, number={4}, journal={BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS}, author={Koch, Frank H. and Yemshanov, Denys and Colunga-Garcia, Manuel and Magarey, Roger D. and Smith, William D.}, year={2011}, month={Apr}, pages={969–985} }
 @book{fowler_garrett_neeley_magarey_borchert_spears_2009, place={Raleigh, NC}, title={Economic analysis: risk to US apple, grape, orange and pear production from the light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana (Walker)}, institution={United States Department of Agriculture}, author={Fowler, G. and Garrett, L. and Neeley, A. and Magarey, R. and Borchert, D. and Spears, B.}, year={2009} }
 @article{magarey_colunga-garcia_fieselmann_2009, title={Plant Biosecurity in the United States: Roles, Responsibilities, and Information Needs}, volume={59}, ISSN={["1525-3244"]}, DOI={10.1525/bio.2009.59.10.9}, abstractNote={Plant biosecurity activities in the United States fall along a continuum ranging from offshore activities to the management of newly established exotic pests. For each step in the continuum, we examine the roles, responsibilities, and information needs of the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service and other agencies involved in plant biosecurity. Both costs and information needs increase dramatically as a pest penetrates deeper into the continuum. To help meet these information needs, we propose a cyberinfrastructure for plant biosecurity to link phytosanitary agencies, researchers, and stakeholders, including industry and the public. The cyberinfrastructure should facilitate data collection, data integration, risk analysis, and reporting. We also emphasize the role of private industry in providing critical data for surveillance. We anticipate that this article will provide agricultural stakeholders, including scientists, with a better understanding of the information needs of phytosanitary organizations, and will ultimately lead to a more coordinated biosecurity effort.}, number={10}, journal={BIOSCIENCE}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Colunga-Garcia, Manuel and Fieselmann, Daniel A.}, year={2009}, month={Nov}, pages={875–884} }
 @book{hartman_haudenshield_smith_tooley_shelton_bulluck_engle_magarey_sutker_cardwell_et al._2009, title={Recovery plan for red leaf blotch of soybean caused by Phoma glycinicola}, institution={USDA}, author={Hartman, G.L. and Haudenshield, J. and Smith, K. and Tooley, P. and Shelton, J. and Bulluck, R. and Engle, J. and Magarey, R. and Sutker, E. and Cardwell, K. and et al.}, year={2009} }
 @book{hartman_haudenshield_smith_tooley_shelton_bulluck_magarey_2009, title={Red leaf blotch of soybean caused by Phoma glycinicola}, author={Hartman, Glen Lee and Haudenshield, J. and Smith, K.L. and Tooley, P. and Shelton, J. and Bulluck, R. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={2009} }
 @misc{magarey_dolezal_moore_2009, title={Worldwide Monitoring Systems: The Need for Public and Private Collaboration}, ISBN={9781402088032 9781402088049}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8804-9_24}, DOI={10.1007/978-1-4020-8804-9_24}, journal={Recent Developments in Management of Plant Diseases}, publisher={Springer Netherlands}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Dolezal, William E. and Moore, Thomas J.}, year={2009}, month={Aug}, pages={349–355} }
 @inproceedings{magarey_fowler_colunga_smith_meentemeyer_2008, place={Albany, CA}, title={Climate-host mapping of Phytophthora ramorum, causal agent of sudden oak death}, number={PSW-GTR-214}, booktitle={Proceedings of the sudden oak death third science symposium. Gen}, publisher={US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station}, author={Magarey, Roger and Fowler, G. and Colunga, M. and Smith, B. and Meentemeyer, R.}, editor={Frankel, Susan J. and Kliejunas, John T. and Palmieri, Katharine M.Editors}, year={2008}, pages={269–275, 214} }
 @article{nietschke_borchert_magarey_ciomperlik_2008, title={Climatological potential for Scirtothrips dorsalis (Thysanoptera : Thripidae) establishment in the United States}, volume={91}, ISSN={["1938-5102"]}, DOI={10.1653/0015-4040(2008)091[0079:CPFSDT]2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract Scirtothrips dorsalis is a serious exotic pest that has recently become established in the continental United States. It is of major concern to regulatory agencies because it has a wide host range and high reproductive potential. A weather-based mapping tool, NAPPFAST, was used to predict potential establishment of S. dorsalis in North America. The analysis was based on a degree-day model and cold temperature survival of S. dorsalis. The results demonstrated that S. dorsalis could potentially produce up to 18 generations and was likely to survive in the southern and western coastal plains of the United States. It is concluded that S. dorsalis is likely to be a serious economic pest in the southern United States. Additional maps and information are available at the web site (http://www.nappfast.org).}, number={1}, journal={FLORIDA ENTOMOLOGIST}, author={Nietschke, Brett S. and Borchert, Daniel M. and Magarey, Roger D. and Ciomperlik, Matthew A.}, year={2008}, month={Mar}, pages={79–86} }
 @article{magarey_borchert_schlegel_2008, title={GLOBAL PLANT HARDINESS ZONES FOR PHYTOSANITARY RISK ANALYSIS}, volume={65}, ISSN={["1678-992X"]}, DOI={10.1590/S0103-90162008000700009}, abstractNote={Plant hardiness zones are widely used for selection of perennial plants and for phytosanitary risk analysis. The most widely used definition of plant hardiness zones (United States Department of Agriculture National Arboretum) is based on average annual extreme minimum temperature. There is a need for a global plant hardiness map to standardize the comparison of zones for phytosanitary risk analysis. Two data sets were used to create global hardiness zones: i) Climate Research Unit (CRU) 1973-2002 monthly data set; and ii) the Daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The CRU monthly data set was downscaled to five-minute resolution and a cubic spline was used to convert the monthly values into daily values. The GHCN data were subjected to a number of quality control measures prior to analysis. Least squares regression relationships were developed using GHCN and derived lowest average daily minimum temperature data and average annual extreme minimum temperatures. Error estimate statistics were calculated from the numerical difference between the estimated value for the grid and the station. The mean absolute error for annual extreme minimum temperature was 1.9ºC (3.5ºF) and 2/3 of the stations were classified into the correct zone.}, journal={SCIENTIA AGRICOLA}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Borchert, Daniel M. and Schlegel, Jay W.}, year={2008}, pages={54–59} }
 @article{nietschke_magarey_borchert_calvin_jones_2007, title={A developmental database to support insect phenology models}, volume={26}, ISSN={["1873-6904"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.cropro.2006.12.006}, abstractNote={Insect phenology models are widely used for decision support in pest management and more recently in phytosanitary risk assessments. The development of generic and flexible modeling tools means that phenology models can be quickly created using an insect's developmental threshold temperatures and degree-day requirements. To assist scientists and field practioners in the rapid development and deployment of phenology models, an Insect Development Database containing the developmental requirements for over 500 insect species was created.}, number={9}, journal={CROP PROTECTION}, author={Nietschke, Brett S. and Magarey, Roger D. and Borchert, Daniel M. and Calvin, Dennis D. and Jones, Edward}, year={2007}, month={Sep}, pages={1444–1448} }
 @misc{magarey_sutton_2007, title={How to Create and Deploy Infection Models for Plant Pathogens}, ISBN={9781402060601 9781402060618}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6061-8_1}, DOI={10.1007/978-1-4020-6061-8_1}, journal={General Concepts in Integrated Pest and Disease Management}, publisher={Springer Netherlands}, author={Magarey, R. D. and Sutton, T. B.}, year={2007}, pages={3–25} }
 @article{magarey_fowler_borchert_sutton_colunga-garcia_2007, title={NAPPFAST: An internet system for the weather-based mapping of plant pathogens}, volume={91}, ISSN={["1943-7692"]}, DOI={10.1094/PDIS-91-4-0336}, abstractNote={In recent years, the number of exotic pest introductions has increased rapidly as a result of increased volume of trade (22). The serious and sometimes irreparable ecological and economic damage of exotic pathogens, such as Cryphonectria parasitica, Ophiostoma novo-ulmi, and Phytophthora ramorum, the causal agents of chestnut blight, Dutch elm disease, and Sudden Oak Death, respectively, are amply documented (1,6,42). An estimate of annual losses for exotic plant pathogens is $21 billion dollars (32). The Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) (Sidebar 1) division within the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) has the goal of safeguarding agriculture and natural resources from the risks associated with the entry, establishment, and spread of exotic pathogens. Two important components of the APHIS-PPQ mission are risk analysis and pest detection. A key goal of the risk analysis program is to identify exotic pest pathways and to assess the risks these exotic pests pose to plants and plant products as well as to the environment. Three types of risk assessments that evaluate the probability of the introduction and establishment of exotic plant pests are pathway analysis, organism pest risk assessment, and commodity risk assessment. The PPQ pest detection program and its state cooperators provide a continuum of pest surveillance, from offshore preclearance programs through port inspections, to surveys in rural and urban sites across the United States. The Center for Plant Health Science and Technology (CPHST) and the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey (CAPS) programs are instrumental in APHIS-PPQ’s pest detection programs. CAPS is responsible for supplying a means of detection, documentation, and rapid dissemination of information regarding the survey of regulated significant plant pests and weeds in the United States. The survey information gathered by CAPS is entered into a central database known as National Agricultural Pest Information System (NAPIS). CPHST, headquartered in Raleigh, NC, is a multi-program scientific support organization for PPQ. One way CPHST scientists help facilitate the APHIS-PPQ activities of risk analysis and pest detection is by mapping the potential introduction and establishment of exotic pathogens in the United States. These maps are the result of pathogen-specific information analyses, including climate, pathogen distribution, host distribution, and trade. Given its influence on pest phenology, reproduction, dispersion, and overwintering survival, climate is a critical component for the geographic assessment of potential pathogen distribution. A large number of climate-based risk mapping systems, such as CLIMEX, BIOCLIM, and GARP, have been used for pest risk analysis (3,10,38,44). Literature typically focuses on the development and/or evaluation of the best modeling techniques (10); however, often the quality of the inputs, including biological parameters, weather}, number={4}, journal={PLANT DISEASE}, author={Magarey, R. D. and Fowler, G. A. and Borchert, D. M. and Sutton, T. B. and Colunga-Garcia, M.}, year={2007}, month={Apr}, pages={336–345} }
 @book{borchert_magarey_2007, title={User manual for NAPPFAST}, author={Borchert, D. and Magarey, R.}, year={2007} }
 @article{magarey_dewolf_savary_willocquet_2006, title={An introduction to the periodic table for plant pathogens}, volume={96}, number={6}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Magarey, R. and DeWolf, E. and Savary, S. and Willocquet, L.}, year={2006} }
 @book{magarey_glenn fowler_2006, title={Climate and Host Risk Map for Sudden Oak Death Risk (Phytophthora ramorum)}, author={Magarey, Roger and Glenn Fowler, B.R.}, year={2006} }
 @inproceedings{fowler_magarey_colunga_2006, place={Albany, CA}, title={Climate-host mapping of Phytophthora ramorum, causal agent of sudden oak death}, number={PSW-GTR-196}, booktitle={Proceedings of the sudden oak death second science symposium: the state of our knowledge}, publisher={Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest Service, US Department of Agriculture}, author={Fowler, Glenn and Magarey, R. and Colunga, M.}, editor={Frankel, Susan J. and Shea, Patrick J. and Haverty, Michael I.Editors}, year={2006}, pages={329–332} }
 @article{magarey_seem_russo_2006, title={Grape canopy surface wetness: Simulation versus visualization and measurement}, volume={139}, ISSN={0168-1923}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.08.015}, DOI={10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.08.015}, abstractNote={Surface wetness is commonly measured with electronic sensors but simulation is a promising alternative, although these methods have rarely been compared statistically using visual observations as a truth data set. In this study, these comparisons are made in two vineyards in New York and one in Australia using simulations from the Surface Wetness Energy Balance (SWEB) model run from canopy-collected atmospheric inputs. The fraction of canopy wet surface area was visually observed on 45 leaves (Wobs), measured using a 15-sensor array (Wsen), and simulated using the SWEB model (Wsim). Both the measurements and visual observations were made in five canopy positions. Observations of wetness included periods of rain, dew and near dew. Overall the SWB model was slightly more effective (r2 = 0.73) than the sensor (r2 = 0.6), although there was substantial variation between sites. Since most applications use surface wetness duration, an additional comparison was based on the Canopy Surface Wetness Duration (CSWD). The mean absolute error (MAE) of the SWEB model varied from 0.7 to 1.5 h at the three sites, while for sensors the MAE varied from 1.1 to 1.9 h. Both SWEB and the sensor performed more poorly in dew than in rain. The sensor did not perform as well as in past studies, possibly because it was validated under a wider range of conditions or because of degradation of the painted surface. In what is likely to be one of the first rigorous comparisons of measurement and simulation, the SWEB model performed as well as a commonly used sensor for estimation of canopy wet surface area and surface wetness duration.}, number={3-4}, journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Seem, R.C. and Russo, J.M.}, year={2006}, month={Oct}, pages={361–372} }
 @article{dalla marta_magarey_martinelli_orlandini_2007, title={Leaf wetness duration in sunflower (Helianthus annuus): Analysis of observations, measurements and simulations}, volume={26}, ISSN={["1161-0301"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.eja.2006.11.002}, abstractNote={The presence of free water on a leaf surface caused by dew is the result of the radiative balance determined by the interactions between the canopy and the atmosphere. Leaf wetness duration (LWD) depends on leaf and canopy characteristics (exposure, position on the plant, etc.). To study the LWD in a horizontal canopy, a set of sensors were placed inside a sunflower (Helianthus annuus) experimental field and the records were compared with visual observations. An agrometeorological station was installed outside the crop to collect the variables necessary to feed a LWD model. The simulations were compared both to sensor measurements and to visual observations. The main aims were the verification of the sensor performances in the detection of dew and the analysis of LWD spatial variability inside the crop canopy. The potential of simulation models as an alternative to field instruments was also investigated. Our results showed that in sunflower canopy, organised in different layers, the LWD increases with height in the canopy but the sensors are not always able to reproduce the observed variability. The use of models can be considered as an operational procedure but attention should be paid to their calibration.}, number={3}, journal={EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY}, author={Dalla Marta, Anna and Magarey, Roger D. and Martinelli, Luca and Orlandini, Simone}, year={2007}, month={Apr}, pages={310–316} }
 @article{savary_willocquet_dewolf_magarey_2006, title={Periodic elements of wheat and grapevine pathosystems}, volume={96}, number={6}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Savary, S. and Willocquet, L. and DeWolf, E. and Magarey, R.}, year={2006} }
 @article{magarey_russo_seem_2006, title={Simulation of surface wetness with a water budget and energy balance approach}, volume={139}, ISSN={0168-1923}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.08.016}, DOI={10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.08.016}, abstractNote={Surface wetness plays an important role in environmental studies. In particular, it is a major variable for plant disease prediction. Surface wetness is commonly measured with electronic sensors but simulation with a surface wetness model is an alternative. Recently, the increased use of interpolation procedures and atmospheric models to produce site-specific weather products has created a greater need for reliable surface wetness models. However, surface wetness models have not been widely used operationally because they are often highly complex, do not simulate both dews and rain or do not adapt well to a new spatial scale or crop. Other models estimate surface wetness in units that are cumbersome to observe in the field. In addition, few models have been calibrated to observed surface wetness over a wide range of atmospheric variables and plant leaf properties under controlled environmental conditions. The objective of this study was to develop a surface wetness model that would be appropriate for operational use in site-specific weather products for grapes. For this purpose, we developed the surface wetness energy balance (SWEB) model based on a 'big leaf'. The SWEB model consists of four sub-modules describing: (i) surface water distribution based on an observed wet fraction; (ii) canopy water budget; (iii) energy balance module based on a combination equation developed by Tanner and Fuchs; (iv) a transfer function based on Bird et al.'s generic transfer coefficient that was previously calibrated to surface wetness under controlled conditions. The SWEB model can be adapted to the physical characteristics of a particular crop by adjusting four plant parameters: leaf area index (LAI), maximum fraction of canopy allowed as wet surface area (Wmax), crop height and maximum water storage. The SWEB model is most sensitive to LAI and Wmax. The SWEB model is close to the required criteria for a suitable surface wetness model including simplicity, utility, scalability, easily observable output units and in addition, it has been calibrated under controlled conditions. The SWEB model was validated in a vineyard and in a companion study, compared to a widely used sensor. The overall objective of these studies was to develop a theoretical standard for surface wetness measurement.}, number={3-4}, journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Russo, J.M. and Seem, R.C.}, year={2006}, month={Oct}, pages={373–381} }
 @article{magarey_sutton_thayer_2005, title={A Simple Generic Infection Model for Foliar Fungal Plant Pathogens}, volume={95}, ISSN={0031-949X 1943-7684}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/phyto-95-0092}, DOI={10.1094/phyto-95-0092}, abstractNote={In this study, a simple generic infection model was developed for predicting infection periods by fungal foliar pathogens. The model is designed primarily for use in forecasting pathogens that do not have extensive epidemiological data. Most existing infection models require a background epidemiological data set, usually including laboratory estimates of infection at multiple temperature and wetness combinations. The model developed in this study can use inputs based on subjective estimates of the cardinal temperatures and the wetness duration requirement. These inputs are available for many pathogens or may be estimated from related pathogens. The model uses a temperature response function which is scaled to the minimum and optimum values of the surface wetness duration requirement. The minimum wetness duration requirement (Wmin) is the number of hours required to produce 20% disease incidence or 5% disease severity on inoculated plant parts at a given temperature. The model was validated with published data from 53 controlled laboratory studies, each with at least four combinations of temperature and wetness. Validation yielded an average correlation coefficient of 0.83 and a root mean square error of 4.9 h, but there was uncertainty about the value of the input parameters for some pathogens. The value of Wminvaried from 1 to 48 h and was relatively uniform for species in the genera Cercospora, Alternaria, and Puccinia but less so for species of Phytophthora, Venturia, and Colletotrichum. Operationally, infection models may use hourly or daily weather inputs. In the case of the former, information also is required to estimate the critical dry-period interruption value, defined as the duration of a dry period at relative humidities <95% that will result in a 50% reduction in disease compared with a continuous wetness period. Pathogens were classified into three groups based on their critical dry-period interruption value. The infection model is being used to create risk maps of exotic pests for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal Plant Health and Inspection Service.}, number={1}, journal={Phytopathology®}, publisher={Scientific Societies}, author={Magarey, R. D. and Sutton, T. B. and Thayer, C. L.}, year={2005}, month={Jan}, pages={92–100} }
 @article{magarey_sutton_2005, title={Application of generic epidemiological models for macroscale risk prediction}, volume={95}, number={6}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Sutton, T.B.}, year={2005} }
 @article{magarey_seem_weiss_gillespie_huber_2005, title={Estimating surface wetness on plants}, volume={47}, journal={Micrometeorology in agricultural systems}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Seem, R.C. and Weiss, A. and Gillespie, T. and Huber, L.}, year={2005}, pages={199–226} }
 @book{meissner_lemay_borchert_nietschke_neeley_magarey_dobbs_2005, title={Evaluation of possible pathways of introduction for Scirtothrips dorsalis Hood (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) from the Caribbean into the continental United States}, institution={Center for Plant Health Science and Technology}, author={Meissner, H. and Lemay, A. and Borchert, D. and Nietschke, B. and Neeley, A. and Magarey, R. and Dobbs, T.}, year={2005} }
 @inproceedings{magarey_isard_2005, title={Model and dispersal for Asian soybean rust}, booktitle={Proceedings of Illinois Crop protection Technology Conference, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign}, author={Magarey, Roger and Isard, S.}, year={2005}, pages={21–22} }
 @article{dalla marta_magarey_orlandini_2005, title={Modelling leaf wetness duration and downy mildew simulation on grapevine in Italy}, volume={132}, ISSN={0168-1923}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.07.003}, DOI={10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.07.003}, abstractNote={Leaf wetness duration (LWD) is one of the most critical variables involved in the development of plant diseases. Many pathogens require the presence of free water on plant organs to move and to start their infective processes. For this reason LWD is extremely significant in the management of crop protection activities and in particular, the successful use of weather-related disease forecasting models. Their operational application is a very important tool for reducing fungicide applications, for environmental safeguarding in high quality production systems, and for reducing the waste of resources and financial losses. Despite the relevance of LWD, no standard has yet been accepted for its measurement. For this reason the use of simulation models, based on agrometeorological variables, represents a valuable alternative to field monitoring. In this work a physical model based on the energy balance was applied for the simulation of LWD on a grapevine (Vitis vinifera). The model, developed in the United States on the cultivars Chardonnay and Concord, and in Australia on Cabernet Franc, was applied for the Sangiovese variety and was adapted for use with agrometeorological data easily available from standard weather stations. The model outputs were compared both with data measured by sensors in the 1995–2003 period and with visual inspections of LWD conducted on vines during 2003. Following, simulated and recorded LWD data were used as input by a model for the simulation of grapevine downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) and the results were compared with observed data in order to establish the impact of different LWD data on the quality of model simulations.}, number={1-2}, journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Dalla Marta, A. and Magarey, R.D. and Orlandini, S.}, year={2005}, month={Sep}, pages={84–95} }
 @article{kim_seem_park_zack_magarey_2005, title={Simulation of Grape Downy Mildew Development Across Geographic Areas Based on Mesoscale Weather Data Using Supercomputer}, volume={21}, ISSN={1598-2254}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.5423/ppj.2005.21.2.111}, DOI={10.5423/ppj.2005.21.2.111}, abstractNote={Weather data for disease forecasts are usually derived from automated weather stations (AWS) that may be dispersed across a region in an irregular pattern. We have developed an alternative method to simulate local scale, high-resolution weather and plant disease in a grid pattern. The system incorporates a simplified mesoscale boundary layer model, LAWSS, for estimating local conditions such as air temperature and relative humidity. It also integrates special models for estimating of surface wetness duration and disease forecasts, such as the grapevine downy mildew forecast model, DMCast. The system can recreate weather forecasts utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database, which contains over 57 years of archived and corrected global upper air conditions. The highest horizontal resolution of 0.150 km was achieved by running 5-step nested child grids inside coarse mother grids. Over the Finger Lakes and Chautauqua Lake regions of New York State, the system simulated three growing seasons for estimating the risk of grape downy mildew with 1 km resolution. Outputs were represented as regional maps or as site-specific graphs. The highest resolutions were achieved over North America, but the system is functional for any global location. The system is expected to be a powerful tool for site selection and reanalysis of historical plant disease epidemics.}, number={2}, journal={The Plant Pathology Journal}, publisher={Korean Society of Plant Pathology}, author={Kim, Kyu-Rang and Seem, Robert C. and Park, Eun-Woo and Zack, John W. and Magarey, Roger D.}, year={2005}, month={Jan}, pages={111–118} }
 @article{rizzo_mouser_whitney_mark_magarey_voinov_2006, title={The comparison of four dynamic systems-based software packages: Translation and sensitivity analysis}, volume={21}, ISSN={1364-8152}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.07.009}, DOI={10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.07.009}, abstractNote={Dynamic model development for describing complex ecological systems continues to grow in popularity. For both academic research and project management, understanding the benefits and limitations of systems-based software could improve the accuracy of results and enlarge the user audience. A Surface Wetness Energy Balance (SWEB) model for canopy surface wetness has been translated into four software packages and their strengths and weaknesses were compared based on ‘novice’ user interpretations. We found expression-based models such as Simulink and GoldSim with Expressions were able to model the SWEB more accurately; however, stock and flow-based models such as STELLA, Madonna, and GoldSim with Flows provided the user a better conceptual understanding of the ecologic system. Although the original objective of this study was to identify an ‘appropriate’ software package for predicting canopy surface wetness using SWEB, our outcomes suggest that many factors must be considered by the stakeholders when selecting a model because the modeling software becomes part of the model and of the calibration process. These constraints may include user demographics, budget limitations, built-in sensitivity and optimization tools, and the preference of user friendliness vs. computational power. Furthermore, the multitude of closed proprietary software may present a disservice to the modeling community, creating model artifacts that originate somewhere deep inside the undocumented features of the software, and masking the underlying properties of the model.}, number={10}, journal={Environmental Modelling & Software}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Rizzo, D and Mouser, P and Whitney, D and Mark, C and Magarey, R and Voinov, A}, year={2006}, month={Oct}, pages={1491–1502} }
 @article{magarey_o’hern_royer_el lissy_2005, title={USDA coordinated framework for soybean rust}, volume={95}, number={6}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Magarey, R.D. and O’Hern, C. and Royer, M. and El Lissy, O.}, year={2005} }
 @book{magarey_borchert_fowler_2005, place={Raleigh, NC}, title={Weather-based Pest Risk Mapping Project}, institution={NCSU APHIS Plant Pest Forecasting System}, author={Magarey, R. and Borchert, D. and Fowler, G.}, year={2005} }
 @article{isard_magarey_russo_2004, title={An aerobiological and epidemiological risk assessment for the aerial incursion of soybean rust into the United States}, volume={94}, number={6}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Isard, S.A. and Magarey, R.D. and Russo, J.M.}, year={2004} }
 @article{main_keever_isard_magarey_redlin_russo_2004, title={Comparison of two aerobiological approaches for predicting the aerial incursion of soybean rust into the United States}, volume={94}, number={6}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Main, C.E. and Keever, T. and Isard, S.A. and Magarey, R.D. and Redlin, S.C. and Russo, J.M.}, year={2004}, pages={65} }
 @book{magarey_keever_main_2004, title={Evaluation of Potential for Atmospheric Transport of Soybean Rust Spores from Roraima, Brazil and Cali, Columbia to the Continental United States}, author={Magarey, Roger and Keever, T. and Main, C.}, year={2004} }
 @article{kim_seem_zack_magarey_2004, title={Forecasting plant disease from local-scale, high-resolution weather data}, volume={94}, number={6}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Kim, K.R. and Seem, R.C. and Zack, J. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={2004} }
 @inproceedings{dalla marta_orlandini_magarey_2004, title={Leaf wetness simulation model and its impact on grapevine downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) forecasting in Tuscany (Italy)}, author={Dalla Marta, A. and Orlandini, S. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={2004} }
 @book{keever_magarey_2004, title={Review of the Tropical Weather Systems in 2004 and their Potential Impact on the Transport of Soybean Rust Spores to the United States}, author={Keever, T. and Magarey, R.}, year={2004} }
 @article{magarey_russo_seem_gadoury_2005, title={Surface wetness duration under controlled environmental conditions}, volume={128}, ISSN={0168-1923}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.07.017}, DOI={10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.07.017}, abstractNote={Surface wetness is an important variable for forecasting plant disease. It is commonly measured with sensors, but these provide an indirect measurement and there is variability between different makes of sensors. Consequently, there is no standard for surface wetness measurement. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a physically based theoretical definition of surface wetness for both drops and films drying under controlled conditions. The validation compared observations of surface wetness with theoretical simulations for a range of factors: atmospheric variables including temperature, humidity, net radiation and wind speed; plant physical properties including surface wettability, leaf width and thickness; and initial water distribution including drop volume and film thickness. The drying of drops and films was studied in a wind tunnel and a laboratory setting. Surface wetness duration was most sensitive to initial drop volume or film depth, relative humidity and surface wettability in the case of water distributed as drops. Surface wetness duration was relatively insensitive to other atmospheric variables. Water distribution whether drop or film, made a four-fold difference in evaporation rate compared to leaf width, which was unimportant for leaves larger than 3 cm. The observations were compared to the theoretical estimations using a surface energy balance model. The surface energy balance model is based on a combination equation and a generic transfer coefficient. The transfer coefficient is dependent upon whether the water is present as drop or film and is assumed to be independent of leaf width or drop dimension. Considerations of drop geometry are ignored, although the initial wet area must be known. The theoretical understanding of drop and film drying under controlled conditions could potentially be useful in a field scale model of surface wetness. Since all the factors that influence surface wetness can be explicitly defined, such a field scale model has potential to be used as a theoretical standard for surface wetness estimation. Additional research is required to test this model under controlled conditions of condensation.}, number={1-2}, journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Russo, J.M. and Seem, R.C. and Gadoury, D.M.}, year={2005}, month={Jan}, pages={111–122} }
 @book{isard_main_keever_magarey_redlin_russo_2004, title={Weather based assessment of soybean rust threat to North America: First year report to Aphis}, institution={US Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service}, author={Isard, Scott A. and Main, C.E. and Keever, T. and Magarey, R. and Redlin, S. and Russo, J.M.}, year={2004} }
 @article{russo_isard_magarey_2004, title={Weather-based simulations of invasive plant pathogens}, volume={94}, number={6}, journal={Phytopathology}, author={Russo, J.M. and Isard, S. and Magarey, R.}, year={2004} }
 @book{magarey_borchert_2003, title={Pest assessment: Puccinia tritici (Wheat leaf rust)}, author={Magarey, R. and Borchert, D.}, year={2003} }
 @book{kim_seem_zack_magarey_2003, title={Regeneration of Local Scale, High-Resolution Weather Data and their Application to Plant Disease Forecasting}, author={Kim, Kyu Rang and Seem, R.C. and Zack, J. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={2003} }
 @book{magarey_borchert_2003, place={Raleigh, NC, USA}, title={Risk assessment: Guignardia citricapra,(Citrus black spot)}, institution={USDA APHIS PPQ CPHST Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory and North Carolina State University}, author={Magarey, R. and Borchert, D.}, year={2003} }
 @inproceedings{magarey_2002, title={A high resolution atmospheric model for prediction of winter injury and vineyard site selection}, booktitle={Archivo de ordenador: proceedings of the International Symposium on Grapevine Phylloxera Management}, author={Magarey, Roger D.}, year={2002} }
 @article{magarey_travis_russo_seem_magarey_2002, title={Decision Support Systems: Quenching the Thirst}, volume={86}, ISSN={0191-2917 1943-7692}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/pdis.2002.86.1.4}, DOI={10.1094/pdis.2002.86.1.4}, abstractNote={A Decision Support System (DSS) integrates and organizes all types of information required for production decisions (19). It can be as simple as a tool for processing data or as complex as a computerized expert system. Figure 1 is a conceptual diagram of a DSS for disease or pest management. Each component can be thought of as a method with a set of associated tools. For example, the data component is associated with the collection method, which has several tools including automated weather stations and site-specific weather products. DSS tools vary in complexity. Examples include rules, schedules of management, equations, combinations of decision aids (23), and expert systems (25). The type of DSS is determined by the cooperative efforts of a multi-disciplinary team of knowledge specialists, the technical and financial resources available, the degree of industry organization and support, and the expectations of end users (25). The selection of an appropriate DSS for a given cropping situation often depends upon the pathogen-pest complex as it interacts with crop and grower preference factors.}, number={1}, journal={Plant Disease}, publisher={Scientific Societies}, author={Magarey, R. D. and Travis, J. W. and Russo, J. M. and Seem, R. C. and Magarey, P. A.}, year={2002}, month={Jan}, pages={4–14} }
 @article{magarey_seem_zack_2001, title={Potential of a local-area agricultural weather simulation system (LAWSS), for disease forecasting}, volume={17}, number={6}, journal={The Plant Pathology Journal}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Seem, R.C. and Zack, J.W.}, year={2001}, pages={373} }
 @article{magarey_seem_russo_zack_waight_travis_oudemans_2001, title={Site-Specific Weather Information Without On-Site Sensors}, volume={85}, ISSN={0191-2917 1943-7692}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/pdis.2001.85.12.1216}, DOI={10.1094/pdis.2001.85.12.1216}, abstractNote={HomePlant DiseaseVol. 85, No. 12Site-Specific Weather Information Without On-Site Sensors PreviousNext OPENOpen Access licenseSite-Specific Weather Information Without On-Site SensorsR. D. Magarey, R. C. Seem, J. M. Russo, J. W. Zack, K. T. Waight, J. W. Travis, and P. V. OudemansR. D. Magarey, R. C. Seem, J. M. Russo, J. W. Zack, K. T. Waight, J. W. Travis, and P. V. OudemansAffiliationsAuthors and Affiliations R. D. Magarey R. C. Seem , New York State Agricultural Experiment Station, Geneva J. M. Russo J. W. Zack K. T. Waight , SkyBit, Inc., Bellefonte, PA J. W. Travis , Pennsylvania State University, University Park P. V. Oudemans , Rutgers University, Chatsworth, NJ Published Online:23 Feb 2007https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS.2001.85.12.1216AboutSectionsPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailWechat DetailsFiguresLiterature CitedRelated Vol. 85, No. 12 December 2001SubscribeISSN:0191-2917e-ISSN:1943-7692 Metrics Article History Issue Date: 25 Jan 2008Published: 23 Feb 2007 Pages: 1216-1226 Information© 2001 The American Phytopathological SocietyPDF downloadCited byLeveraging Data, Models & Farming Innovation to Prevent, Prepare for & Manage Pest Incursions: Delivering a Pest Risk Service for Low-Income Countries2 January 2023Comparison of air temperature measured in a vineyard canopy and at a standard weather station11 June 2020 | PLOS ONE, Vol. 15, No. 6Optimizing Cercospora Leaf Spot Control in Table Beet Using Action Thresholds and Disease ForecastingSarah J. Pethybridge, Sandeep Sharma, Zachariah Hansen, Julie R. Kikkert, Daniel L. 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Smith20 November 2017 | Plant Disease, Vol. 102, No. 1Improving fungal disease forecasts in winter wheat: A critical role of intra-day variations of meteorological conditions in the development of Septoria leaf blotchField Crops Research, Vol. 213Modelling the impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systemsAgricultural Systems, Vol. 155Decision Support Systems for Plant Disease and Insect Management in Commercial Nurseries in the Midwest: A Perspective Review1Journal of Environmental Horticulture, Vol. 35, No. 2A Troubleshooting Guide for Mechanistic Plant Pest Forecast Models31 December 2016 | Journal of Integrated Pest Management, Vol. 85Estimating Surface Wetness on Plants26 October 2015Site-specific temporal and spatial validation of a generic plant pest forecast system with observations of Bactrocera dorsalis (oriental fruit fly)15 September 2015 | NeoBiota, Vol. 27Prediction of Phyllosticta citricarpa using an hourly infection model and validation with prevalence data from South Africa and AustraliaCrop Protection, Vol. 75Development and validation of a fungicide scoring system for management of late season soybean diseases in ArgentinaCrop Protection, Vol. 70Reconsidering Leaf Wetness Duration Determination for Plant Disease ManagementTracy Rowlandson, Mark Gleason, Paulo Sentelhas, Terry Gillespie, Carla Thomas, and Brian Hornbuckle13 February 2015 | Plant Disease, Vol. 99, No. 3Site-specific risk factors of white mould epidemics in bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris ) in Tasmania, AustraliaNew Zealand Journal of Crop and Horticultural Science, Vol. 40, No. 3Sensitivity of Disease Management Decision Aids to Temperature Input Errors Associated with Sampling Interval and Out-of-Canopy Sensor PlacementW. F. Pfender, D. H. Gent, and W. F. Mahaffee10 April 2012 | Plant Disease, Vol. 96, No. 5Variability Among Forecast Models for the Apple Sooty Blotch/Flyspeck Disease ComplexDaniel R. Cooley, David A. Rosenberger, Mark L. Gleason, Glen Koehler, Kerik Cox, Jon M. Clements, Turner B. Sutton, Angela Madeiras, and John R. Hartman11 August 2011 | Plant Disease, Vol. 95, No. 9A Web-based Information System for Plant Disease Forecast Based on Weather Data at High Spatial ResolutionThe Plant Pathology Journal, Vol. 26, No. 1Site-Specific Risk Factors for Ray Blight in Tasmanian Pyrethrum FieldsSarah J. Pethybridge, David H. Gent, Paul D. Esker, William W. Turechek, Frank S. Hay, and Forrest W. Nutter9 February 2009 | Plant Disease, Vol. 93, No. 3Estimating leaf wetness duration over turfgrass, and in a 'Niagara Rosada' vineyard, in a subtropical environmentScientia Agricola, Vol. 65, No. speObtaining weather data for input to crop disease-warning systems: leaf wetness duration as a case studyScientia Agricola, Vol. 65, No. speContamination of Fresh and Ensiled Maize by Multiple Penicillium MycotoxinsM. A. Mansfield, A. D. Jones, and G. A. Kuldau7 February 2008 | Phytopathology®, Vol. 98, No. 3Climatological Potential for Scirtothrips Dorsalis (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) Establishment in the United StatesFlorida Entomologist, Vol. 91, No. 1Risk of establishment of non-indigenous diseases of citrus fruit and foliage in Spain: An approach using meteorological databases and tree canopy climate dataPhytoparasitica, Vol. 36, No. 1A Site-Specific, Weather-Based Disease Regression Model for Sclerotinia Blight of PeanutD. L. Smith, J. E. Hollowell, T. G. Isleib, and B. B. Shew9 October 2007 | Plant Disease, Vol. 91, No. 11NAPPFAST: An Internet System for the Weather-Based Mapping of Plant PathogensR. D. Magarey, G. A. Fowler, D. M. Borchert, T. B. Sutton, M. Colunga-Garcia, and J. A. Simpson14 March 2007 | Plant Disease, Vol. 91, No. 4Relationship of Sphinganine Analog Mycotoxin Contamination in Maize Silage to Seasonal Weather Conditions and to Agronomic and Ensiling PracticesMichele A. Mansfield, Douglas D. Archibald, A. Daniel Jones, and Gretchen A. Kuldau16 March 2007 | Phytopathology®, Vol. 97, No. 4Leaf wetness duration measurement: comparison of cylindrical and flat plate sensors under different field conditons24 November 2006 | International Journal of Biometeorology, Vol. 51, No. 4How to Create and Deploy Infection Models for Plant PathogensApplications Of Information Technology In IPMGrape canopy surface wetness: Simulation versus visualization and measurementAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 139, No. 3-4Simulation of surface wetness with a water budget and energy balance approachAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 139, No. 3-4Plant Pathogen Forensics: Capabilities, Needs, and RecommendationsMicrobiology and Molecular Biology Reviews, Vol. 70, No. 2Relationships Between Weather Conditions, Agronomic Practices, and Fermentation Characteristics with Deoxynivalenol Content in Fresh and Ensiled MaizeM. A. Mansfield, E. D. De Wolf, and G. A. Kuldau5 February 2007 | Plant Disease, Vol. 89, No. 11Spatial variability of leaf wetness duration in different crop canopies9 March 2005 | International Journal of Biometeorology, Vol. 49, No. 6Potential of Radar-Estimated Rainfall for Plant Disease Risk ForecastF. Workneh, B. Narasimhan, R. Srinivasan, and C. M. Rush5 February 2007 | Phytopathology®, Vol. 95, No. 1A Simple Generic Infection Model for Foliar Fungal Plant PathogensR. D. Magarey, T. B. Sutton, and C. L. Thayer5 February 2007 | Phytopathology®, Vol. 95, No. 1PLANT DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGYSurface wetness duration under controlled environmental conditionsAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 128, No. 1-2Simulation of Grape Downy Mildew Development Across Geographic Areas Based on Mesoscale Weather Data Using SupercomputerThe Plant Pathology Journal, Vol. 21, No. 2Forecasting plant disease in a changing climate: a question of scaleCanadian Journal of Plant Pathology, Vol. 26, No. 3Adaptation of Fire Blight Forecasting to Optimize the Use of Biological ControlsK. B. Johnson, V. O. Stockwell, and T. L. Sawyer23 February 2007 | Plant Disease, Vol. 88, No. 1Validation of Potato Early Blight Disease Forecast Models for Colorado Using Various Sources of Meteorological DataDavid H. Gent and Howard F. Schwartz23 February 2007 | Plant Disease, Vol. 87, No. 1Decision Support Systems: Quenching the ThirstR. D. Magarey, J. W. Travis, J. M. Russo, R. C. Seem, and P. A. Magarey23 February 2007 | Plant Disease, Vol. 86, No. 1}, number={12}, journal={Plant Disease}, publisher={Scientific Societies}, author={Magarey, R. D. and Seem, R. C. and Russo, J. M. and Zack, J. W. and Waight, K. T. and Travis, J. W. and Oudemans, P. V.}, year={2001}, month={Dec}, pages={1216–1226} }
 @article{seem_magarey_zack_russo_2000, title={Estimating disease risk at the whole plant level with General Circulation Models}, volume={108}, ISSN={0269-7491}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0269-7491(99)00218-3}, DOI={10.1016/s0269-7491(99)00218-3}, abstractNote={General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been developed to assess the impacts of potential global climate change. However, these models do not provide specific weather information at the whole-plant level and thus provide only very gross estimates of conditions that affect plant and disease development. Also, climatic change may increase the frequency of extreme events that influence plant production more than changes in daily or monthly averages. One solution is a simulation approach that can scale weather information from the global down to the plant scale. Over the last 4 years, we have been developing methods to hierarchically define current and forecast weather conditions down to the whole-plant level based on nested high-resolution atmospheric (mesoscale) numerical models. Two hierarchical mesoscale model approaches were tested to downscale weather data in a vineyard. The first, known as the Localized Mesoscale Forecast System (LMFS) uses surface databases to 'localize' mesoscale output. The second, known as the Canopy-Mesoscale Forecast System (CMFS), uses a boundary layer model to downscale mesoscale output. To illustrate the utility of this approach we focused on surface wetness duration (SWD), a variable with high spatial and temporal variability. SWD is also a critical variable for prediction of plant disease. Simulations of SWD with on-site input data were compared to those derived from the mesoscale models and to on-site sensors. Forecasts of atmospheric variables by the two systems were compared to on-site observations. Success in this effort leads us to extend this method to GCMs where factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and surface wetness can be estimated within plant and crop canopies. We explore the implications of this work on evaluating the assessment of climate change on the risk of plant disease development.}, number={3}, journal={Environmental Pollution}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Seem, R.C. and Magarey, R.D. and Zack, J.W. and Russo, J.M.}, year={2000}, month={Jun}, pages={389–395} }
 @article{emmett_magarey_magarey_2000, title={Growers can succeed in the fight against powdery mildew}, volume={4}, number={5}, journal={Australian viticulture}, author={Emmett, B. and Magarey, P. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={2000}, pages={32–35} }
 @article{magarey_magarey_2000, title={More on the downy mildew challenge}, volume={4}, number={6}, journal={Australian viticulture}, author={Magarey, P. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={2000}, pages={22–27} }
 @inproceedings{magarey_magarey_emmett_2000, title={Principles for managing the foliage diseases of grapevine with low input of pesticides}, booktitle={6th International Congress on Organic Viticulture}, author={Magarey, P.A. and Magarey, R.D. and Emmett, R.W.}, year={2000}, pages={140} }
 @article{magarey_clancy_magarey_2000, title={The downy mildew challenge}, volume={4}, number={5}, journal={Australian viticulture}, author={Magarey, P. and Clancy, T. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={2000}, pages={38–46} }
 @phdthesis{magarey_1999, place={Ithaca, NY}, title={A theoretical standard for estimation of surface wetness duration in grape}, school={Cornell University}, author={Magarey, Roger Duncan}, year={1999} }
 @inbook{magarey_seem_magarey_emmett_rogers_furler_1999, title={New weather forecast technology for Australian grapegrowers}, booktitle={Australian Grapegrower and Winemaker}, author={Magarey, R. and Seem, R. and Magarey, P. and Emmett, B. and Rogers, S. and Furler, G.}, year={1999}, pages={85–94} }
 @article{gadoury_seem_magarey_emmett_magarey_1997, title={Effects of environment and fungicides on epidemics of grape powdery mildew: considerations for practical model development and disease management}, volume={52}, number={3–4}, journal={Wein-Wissenschaft}, author={Gadoury, D.M. and Seem, R.C. and Magarey, P.A. and Emmett, R. and Magarey, R.}, year={1997}, pages={225–229} }
 @article{emmett_magarey_magarey_biggins_clarke_1997, title={Strategic management of grapevine powdery mildew (Uncinula necator) in south eastern Australia}, volume={52}, number={3–4}, journal={Wein-Wissenschaft}, author={Emmett, R.W. and Magarey, R.D. and Magarey, P.A. and Biggins, L.T. and Clarke, K.}, year={1997}, pages={203–205} }
 @article{emmett_magarey_magarey_biggins_clarke_1997, title={The spread of grapevine powdery mildew (Uncinula necator) in south eastern Australia}, volume={52}, number={3–4}, journal={Wein-Wissenschaft}, author={Emmett, R.W. and Magarey, R.D. and Magarey, P.A. and Biggins, L.T. and Clarke, K.}, year={1997}, pages={206–208} }
 @inbook{emmett_magarey_magarey_1995, title={Black spot}, booktitle={Diseases and pests}, publisher={Winetitles}, author={Emmett, R.W. and Magarey, P.A. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={1995}, pages={25–27} }
 @inbook{emmett_magarey_magarey_1995, title={Powdery mildew}, booktitle={Diseases and pests}, publisher={Winetitles}, author={Emmett, R.W. and Magarey, P.A. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={1995}, pages={12–16} }
 @article{magarey_emmett_roberts_1995, title={Residues of Four Fungicides Applied for Control of Grapevine Anthracnose Caused by Sphaceloma Ampelinum in a Budburst to Flowering Spray Program.}, volume={24}, ISSN={0815-3191}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/app9950209}, DOI={10.1071/app9950209}, abstractNote={Four fungicides ziram (Ziram), dichlofluanid (Euparen), fluazinam (Shirlan) and captan (Captan) were applied in a five-spray program from budburst to flowering and a three-spray program from budburst to 20–30 cm shoot length stage in a Sultana vineyard at Irymple, Victoria. Bunch samples were collected at five intervals after the last application in the five-spray program and at two intervals after the three-spray program and analysed for residues of the fungicides applied. None of the three-spray treatments caused detectable residues at harvest. Some of the samples from the five-spray treatments of captan and ziram caused residues between 0.07–0.1 mg/kg at harvest. Each residue was less than the corresponding maximum residue limit (MRL). The time interval between the last application and harvest had a bigger influence on residues than the growth stage at which the sprays were applied. Pre-flowering sprays have the potential to cause residues at harvest if the degradation rates of applied chemicals are sufficiently slow. All four fungicides can be applied in a budburst to flowering spray program without risk of exceeding recognised MRLs.}, number={3}, journal={Australasian Plant Pathology}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Magarey, RD and Emmett, RW and Roberts, GS}, year={1995}, pages={209} }
 @article{magarey_magarey_seem_1994, title={Developing a low cost disease predictor}, volume={336a}, journal={Australian Grapegrower and Winemaker}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Magarey, P.A. and Seem, R.C.}, year={1994}, pages={63–65} }
 @article{magarey_magarey_seem_1994, title={Developing a low cost disease predictor [grapes; weather stations}, volume={336a}, journal={Australian Grapegrower and Winemaker}, author={Magarey, R. and Magarey, P.A. and Seem, R.C.}, year={1994}, pages={63–65} }
 @article{madge_buchanan_emmett_hawtin_hart_magarey_1994, title={Obtaining weather data from remote vineyards: a working example}, volume={336a}, journal={Australian Grapegrower and Winemaker}, author={Madge, D. and Buchanan, G. and Emmett, B. and Hawtin, J. and Hart, K. and Magarey, R.}, year={1994}, pages={101–104} }
 @article{magarey_coffey_emmett_1993, title={Anthracnose of grapevines, a review}, volume={8}, journal={Plant Protection Quarterly}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Coffey, B.E. and Emmett, R.W.}, year={1993}, pages={106–110} }
 @inbook{edwards_madge_buchanan_magarey_1993, place={Camberra}, title={Biology and control of fuller’s rose weevil incitrus}, booktitle={Pest control and sustainable agriculture}, publisher={CSIRO}, author={Edwards, M.E. and Madge, D.G. and Buchanan, G.A. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={1993}, pages={139–141} }
 @article{magarey_emmett_magarey_franz_1993, title={Evaluation of Control of Grapevine Anthracnose Caused by Elsinoe Ampelina by Pre-Infection Fungicides.}, volume={22}, ISSN={0815-3191}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/app9930048}, DOI={10.1071/app9930048}, abstractNote={Four pre-infection fungicides were found to be as effective as the industry standard ziram for the control of grapevine anthracnose. In field and glasshouse trials, dichlofluanid, captan, fluazinam and chlorothalonil all provided excellent disease control. Prochloraz and fenarimol were less effective, but still provided some control. Fenarimol, chlorothalonil and prochloraz displayed varying degrees of phytotoxicity associated with early season use. In general, the dernethylation inhibiting fungicides have little potential for control of grapevine anthracnose.}, number={2}, journal={Australasian Plant Pathology}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Magarey, RD and Emmett, RW and Magarey, PA and Franz, PR}, year={1993}, pages={48} }
 @article{magarey_buchanan_franz_roberts_1993, title={Evaluation of lambdacyhalothrin and deltamethrin trunk treatments for control of Fuller’s rose weevil, Asynonychus cervinus (Boheman)(Coleoptera: Curculionidae), on Citrus}, volume={8}, journal={Plant Protection Quarterly}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Buchanan, G.A. and Franz, P.R. and Roberts, G.S.}, year={1993}, pages={123–123} }
 @article{magarey_emmett_wachtel_magarey_1993, title={Reducing the Use of Chemicals in Australian Vineyards}, volume={8}, journal={Australian and New Zealand Wine Industry Journal}, author={Magarey, P.A. and Emmett, R.W. and Wachtel, M.F. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={1993}, pages={237} }
 @article{wicks_magarey_cirami_1993, title={Susceptibility of grapevine cultivars to powdery mildew-Nuriootpa 1991-92}, journal={Australian Grapegrower and Winemaker}, author={Wicks, T.J. and Magarey, R.D. and Cirami, R.M.}, year={1993}, pages={101} }
 @article{hart_magarey_emmett_magarey_1993, title={Susceptibility of grapevine selections to black spot (anthracnose) Elsinoe ampelina}, journal={Australian Grapegrower and Winemaker}, author={Hart, K.M. and Magarey, R.D. and Emmett, R.W. and Magarey, P.A.}, year={1993}, pages={85} }
 @article{magarey_wachtel_emmett_magarey_1993, title={The Downy Mildew Season 1992/93}, volume={8}, journal={Australian and New Zealand Wine Industry Journal}, author={Magarey, P.A. and Wachtel, M.F. and Emmett, R.W. and Magarey, R.D.}, year={1993}, pages={234} }
 @book{magarey_emmett_coffey_1992, place={Department of Agriculture}, title={A Revised Management Program for Grapevine Black Spot}, institution={Mildura, Victoria}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Emmett, R.W. and Coffey, B.E.}, year={1992} }
 @article{magarey_clarke_madge_buchanan_1992, title={Comparative efficacy of trunk treatments for control of Fuller’s rose weevil, Asynonychus cervinus (Boheman)(Coleoptera: Curculionidae), on citrus}, volume={7}, number={1}, journal={Plant Protection Quarterly}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Clarke, K. and Madge, D.G. and Buchanan, G.A.}, year={1992}, pages={7–9} }
 @book{magarey_emmett_roberts, title={A Revised Management Program for Grapevine Black Spot}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Emmett, R.W. and Roberts, G.} }
 @book{magarey_borchert_schlegel, place={Bamboo Plantation Garden Center}, title={Bamboo Plantation Garden Center}, author={Magarey, Roger D. and Borchert, D.M. and Schlegel, J.W.} }
 @book{records_lapitan_bertram_savary_ficke_garrett_margarey, title={Browse by Subject}, author={Records, A. and Lapitan, N. and Bertram, R. and Savary, S. and Ficke, A. and Garrett, K.A. and Margarey, R.} }
 @book{chanelli_magarey_borchert_engle, title={Comparison of the observed and predicted number of generations for 21 arthropod pests}, author={Chanelli, S. and Magarey, R. and Borchert, D. and Engle, J.} }
 @book{magarey_russo_seem, title={Prerliminary documentation for SWEB}, author={Magarey, R.D. and Russo, J.M. and Seem, R.C.} }
 @book{fowler_magarey, title={Risk Analysis Applications of the NCSU APHIS Plant P t F ti S t (NAPPFAST) Pest Forecasting System (NAPPFAST)}, author={Fowler, Glenn and Magarey, R.} }
 @book{hart_magarey_emmett_magarey, title={Susceptibility of grapevine selections to black spot (anthracnose) Elsinoe}, journal={A Revised Management Program for Grapevine Black Spot}, author={Hart, Kerryn M. and Magarey, R.D. and Emmett, R.W. and Magarey, P.A.} }
 @book{mouser_whitney_mark_voinov_rizzo_magarey, title={The comparison of six software packages: formalization, calibration, and analysis}, author={Mouser, P. and Whitney, D. and Mark, C. and Voinov, A. and Rizzo, D. and Magarey, R.} }