@article{robbins_loudermilk_mozelewski_jones_scheller_2024, title={Fire regimes of the Southern Appalachians may radically shift under climate change}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1933-9747"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00231-1}, DOI={10.1186/s42408-023-00231-1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={FIRE ECOLOGY}, author={Robbins, Zachary J. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Mozelewski, Tina G. and Jones, Kate and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2024}, month={Jan} }
 @article{manley_long_scheller_2024, title={Keeping up with the landscapes: promoting resilience in dynamic social-ecological systems}, volume={29}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-14563-290103}, abstractNote={Forest managers working in dry forest ecosystems must contend with the costs and benefits of fire, and they are seeking forest management strategies that enhance the resilience of forests and landscapes to future disturbances in a changing climate. An interdisciplinary science team worked with resource managers and stakeholders to assess future forest ecosystem dynamics, given potential climatic changes and management strategies, across a 23,000-ha landscape in the Lake Tahoe basin of California and Nevada in support of the Lake Tahoe West Restoration Partnership. We projected forest growth and fire dynamics using a landscape change model, upon which the science team layered additional modeling to evaluate changes in wildlife habitat, water, and economics. Managers and stakeholders used the findings of this integrated modeling effort to inform the design of a landscape restoration strategy that balanced risks and benefits based on a robust scientific foundation. The results, published in this Special Feature, suggest that a continuation of status quo management would be less effective at protecting and improving desired outcomes than more active and extensive management approaches. In addition, the types of management activity also affected ecosystem outcomes. Results from across the studies in this special feature suggest that thinning and prescribed fire were complementary, although they resulted in somewhat different effects, and that low-severity use of fire had the greatest array and magnitude of ecosystem benefits. A notable exception was carbon storage, which declined with more active management and prescribed fire in particular. We highlight key findings from this Special Feature and summarize key challenges and some lessons learned in our experience of co-producing science. In short, science-management partnerships require cooperation, patience, and skill, but they are effective in increasing the capacity of land managers to navigate in an environment of rapid change and increasing uncertainty.}, number={1}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Manley, Patricia N. and Long, Jonathan W. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2024}, month={Jan} }
 @article{lucash_williams_srikrishnan_keller_scheller_hegelson_nicholas_smithwick_2023, title={Balancing multiple forest management objectives under climate change in central Wisconsin, U.S.A.}, volume={14}, ISSN={["2666-7193"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100460}, DOI={10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100460}, abstractNote={Forest managers must balance multiple objectives and consider tradeoffs when developing a management plan. Complex interactions between successional dynamics and natural disturbances make it challenging, especially when decisions play out under the deep and dynamic uncertainties associated with climate change. Here we explored a suite of management strategies to maximize multiple management objectives and minimize tradeoffs under future climate projections and quantified the greatest sources of uncertainty. We used a spatially-explicit forest simulation model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the effects of wind, management, and climate change in central Wisconsin and calculated benefits and tradeoffs among six management objectives (maximize aboveground carbon (C), soil C, harvested C, C stored in species of cultural importance to the Menominee tribe, tree diversity, and age diversity). We found that uneven-aged management achieves more ecosystem benefits (except for harvested C) than the other harvest strategies, but it was the business-as-usual harvest scenario that minimized tradeoffs among objectives. Climate change made it more difficult to store C in soils and have diverse forests and the management strategies we considered were unable to regain these lost benefits. Climate change reduced harvested C and C stored in culturally-important species, but the management strategies were able to at least partially compensate for this effect. The uncertainty surrounding the climate projections generated the largest variation in all benefits except harvested C. Managers seeking to maximize benefits and minimize tradeoffs should consider a range of silvicultural strategies while recognizing that climate change may shrink the operating space for achieving foresters' management goals.}, journal={TREES FORESTS AND PEOPLE}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Williams, Neil G. and Srikrishnan, Vivek and Keller, Klaus and Scheller, Robert M. and Hegelson, Casey and Nicholas, Robert E. and Smithwick, Erica A. H.}, year={2023}, month={Dec} }
 @article{lucash_marshall_weiss_mcnabb_nicolsky_flerchinger_link_vogel_scheller_abramoff_et al._2023, title={Burning trees in frozen soil: Simulating fire, vegetation, soil, and hydrology in the boreal forests of Alaska}, volume={481}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110367}, abstractNote={Boreal ecosystems account for 29% of the world's total forested area and contain more carbon than any other terrestrial biome. Over the past 60 years, Alaska has warmed twice as rapidly as the contiguous U.S. and wildfire activity has increased, including the number of fires, area burned, and frequency of large wildfire seasons. These recent and rapid changes in climate and wildfire have implications for future vegetation composition, structure, and biomass in interior Alaska, given that the vegetation is highly dependent on active layer thickness, soil moisture, organic layer depth, and plant-available nutrients. Here we developed a new succession extension (DGS) of the LANDIS-II forest landscape model which integrates a vegetation dynamics model (NECN) with a soil carbon model (DAMM-McNiP), a hydrologic model (SHAW), and a deep soil profile permafrost model (GIPL) in a spatially-explicit framework. DGS Succession uses the algorithms in the NECN Succession extension of LANDIS-II to simulate growth, mortality and reproduction of vegetation but has three major improvements. First, the simple bucket model in NECN was replaced with a physically-based model (SHAW) that simulates energy and water fluxes (e.g. snow depth, evapotranspiration, soil moisture) at multiple levels in the canopy and soil. Second, the active, slow, and passive soil pools in NECN were replaced by seven soil pools that are measurable in the field, with carbon and nitrogen dynamics dictated by DAMM-McNiP. Finally, soil temperature and soil moisture are simulated only at one depth in NECN, but in DGS, soil temperature (and hence permafrost dynamics) are simulated at as many as 50 user-defined depths down to 4 m with SHAW and 75 m with GIPL. During the initial calibration phase, DGS was applied at three inventory sites at the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research area in Interior Alaska where climate forcings, species biomass, soil temperature, and/or soil moisture were available. For the landscape-scale simulations, DGS was run with the SCRPPLE fire extension of LANDIS-II under two scenarios of climate using a ∼400,000 ha landscape that included the inventory sites. Across all three sites, DGS generally captured the variation in soil moisture and temperature across depths, seasons, and years reasonably well, though there were some discrepancies at each site. DGS had better agreement with field measurements of soil moisture and temperature than its predecessor NECN which produced unrealistically low soil moisture and unrealistically high seasonal fluctuations in soil temperature. At the landscape scale, ignitions, area burned, and soil temperature increased under climate change, as expected, while soil moisture was relatively unchanged across climate scenarios. Biomass tended to decline under climate change, which differs from other modeling studies in this region but is consistent with the browning trends observed from remote sensing data. Simulating climate, vegetation succession, hydrology, permafrost, carbon and nutrient cycling, and wildfire in an integrated, spatially-explicit framework like LANDIS-II will allow us to disentangle the drivers and ecosystem responses in this rapidly changing ecosystem, as well as other forested systems with complex hydrologic, biochemical, cryospheric, and vegetation feedbacks.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Marshall, Adrienne M. and Weiss, Shelby A. and McNabb, John W. and Nicolsky, Dmitry J. and Flerchinger, Gerald N. and Link, Timothy E. and Vogel, Jason G. and Scheller, Robert M. and Abramoff, Rose Z. and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Jul} }
 @article{robbins_xu_jonko_chitra-tarak_fettig_costanza_mortenson_aukema_kueppers_scheller_2023, title={Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks}, volume={11}, ISSN={["2296-665X"]}, DOI={10.3389/fenvs.2023.1112756}, abstractNote={Outbreaks of several bark beetle species can develop rapidly in response to drought and may result in large transfers of carbon (C) stored in live trees to C stored in dead trees (10s of Tg C yr-1 in the western U.S. alone), which over time will be released back to the atmosphere. The western pine beetle (WPB) outbreak incited by the 2012–2015 mega-drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S., could portend more frequent and/or severe bark beetle outbreaks as the temperature warms and drought frequency and intensity increase in the future. However, changes in the frequency and/or severity (resultant levels of host tree mortality) of beetle outbreaks are difficult to predict as outbreaks are complex with non-linear and eruptive processes primarily driven by interactions among beetle populations, the demography of hosts and other tree species, and climate and weather. Using an insect phenology and tree defense model, we projected the future likelihood of WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada with climate drivers from different Earth System Models. Our goal was to understand how host (ponderosa pine, PIPO) recovery and future warming and drought affect the frequency and severity of WPB outbreaks and their C consequences. Our projections suggested that by 2100 the C stored in live PIPO (mean: 1.98 kg C m-2, 95% CI: 1.74–2.21 kg C m-2) will not return to levels that occurred before the 2012–2015 drought (2012: ∼2.30 kg C m-2) due to future WPB outbreaks. However, differences in climate models indicate a wide range of possible WPB outbreak frequencies and severities. Our results suggest that total plot basal area is the most significant factor in the mortality rate of PIPO by WPB in any given year, followed by drought severity and temperature. High levels of host basal area, higher temperature, and extreme drought all contribute to the frequency and severity of future WPB outbreaks. While PIPO basal area may decline under increased drought and warming, limiting high-stand basal area (>60 m2 ha-1) may reduce the severity of future WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE}, author={Robbins, Zachary J. and Xu, Chonggang and Jonko, Alex and Chitra-Tarak, Rutuja and Fettig, Christopher J. and Costanza, Jennifer and Mortenson, Leif A. and Aukema, Brian H. and Kueppers, Lara M. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2023}, month={Mar} }
 @article{rolf_obando_bulley_cho_bamutaze_scheller_schirpke_2023, title={Odyssey of First IALE World Congress in Africa and Opportunities for North-South or South-South Collaboration }, volume={98}, url={https://doi.org/10.3097/LO.2023.1119}, DOI={10.3097/LO.2023.1119}, abstractNote={The landscape ecology community witnessed a landmark event in July 2023 as the 11th International Association for Landscape Ecology (IALE) World Congress unfolded on the African continent for the first time. This editorial commemorates this historic occasion, tracing the journey from the inception of Africa-IALE initiatives in 2002 to the culmination of the World Congress held in Nairobi, Kenya, almost two decades later. Having previously graced Europe, Northern America, Australia, and Asia, the IALE World Congress embraced Africa, showcasing the global reach and inclusive spirit of landscape ecology. This editorial explores the evolution of Africa-IALE, highlighting the initiatives and the persistent efforts that led to the World Congress in Africa. We firstly delve into the socio-cultural and international significance of this shift, emphasising the unique perspectives and challenges faced by the African landscape ecology community. Secondly, we assess the participants involved in the 11th World IALE Congress, the topics discussed, current trends, and priorities within the global landscape ecology research community. To do so, we conducted a bibliometric analysis of the conference proceedings. Lastly, we reflect on the impacts of this Congress. Our retrospective perspective offers a comprehensive view of the symbiotic relationships among the international landscape ecology community and how landscape ecology has evolved in parallel with emerging challenges and emerging centres of knowledge and leadership.}, journal={Landscape Online}, author={Rolf, Werner and Obando, Joy and Bulley, Henry and Cho, Moses and Bamutaze, Yazidhi and Scheller, Robert and Schirpke, Uta}, year={2023}, month={Dec}, pages={1119} }
 @article{maxwell_scheller_wilson_manley_2022, title={Assessing the effectiveness of landscape-scale forest adaptation actions to improve resilience under projected climate change}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2624-893X"]}, DOI={10.3389/ffgc.2022.740869}, abstractNote={Climate change will increase disturbance pressures on forested ecosystems worldwide. In many areas, longer, hotter summers will lead to more wildfire and more insect activity which will substantially increase overall forest mortality. Forest treatments reduce tree density and fuel loads, which in turn reduces fire and insect severity, but implementation has been limited compared to the area needing treatment. Ensuring that forests remain near their reference conditions will require a significant increase in the pace and scale of forest management. In order to assess what pace and scale may be required for a landscape at risk, we simulated forest and disturbance dynamics for the central Sierra Nevada, USA. Our modeling framework included forest growth and succession, wildfire, insect mortality and locally relevant management actions. Our simulations accounted for climate change (five unique global change models on a business-as-usual emissions pathway) and a wide range of plausible forest management scenarios (six total, ranging from less than 1% of area receiving management treatments per year to 6% per year). The climate projections we considered all led to an increasing climatic water deficit, which in turn led to widespread insect caused mortality across the landscape. The level of insect mortality limited the amount of carbon stored and sequestered while leading to significant composition changes, however, only one climate change projection resulted in increased fire over contemporary conditions. While increased pace and scale of treatments led to offsets in fire related tree mortality, managing toward historic reference conditions was not sufficient to reduce insect-caused forest mortality. As such, new management intensities and other adaptation actions may be necessary to maintain forest resilience under an uncertain future climate.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE}, author={Maxwell, Charles J. and Scheller, Robert M. and Wilson, Kristen N. and Manley, Patricia N.}, year={2022}, month={Nov} }
 @article{robbins_loudermilk_reilly_o'brien_jones_gerstle_scheller_2022, title={Delayed fire mortality has long-term ecological effects across the Southern Appalachian landscape}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4153}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.4153}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={6}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Robbins, Zachary J. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Reilly, Matthew J. and O'Brien, Joseph J. and Jones, Kate and Gerstle, Christopher T. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{mozelewski_robbins_scheller_2022, title={Forecasting the influence of conservation strategies on landscape connectivity}, volume={6}, ISSN={["1523-1739"]}, DOI={10.1111/cobi.13904}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={CONSERVATION BIOLOGY}, author={Mozelewski, Tina G. and Robbins, Zachary J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{maxwell_scheller_long_manley_2022, title={Forest management under uncertainty: the influence of management versus climate change and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA.}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-13278-270215}, abstractNote={. Climate change will accelerate forest mortality due to insects, disease, and wildfire. As a result, substantial resources will be necessary where and when forest managers seek to maintain multiple management objectives. Because of the increasing managerial requirements to offset climate change and related disturbances, the uncertainty about future forest conditions is magnified relative to climate change alone. We provide an analytical approach that quantifies the key drivers of forest change—climate, disturbance, and forest management—using scenarios paired with simulation modeling to forecast and quantify uncertainties in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada (USA), a montane seasonally dry conifer forest. We partitioned uncertainty among climate change (including associated changes to wildfire and insect outbreaks), forest management (including thinning, prescribed fire, and fire suppression), and other sources using a fully factorial experimental design and analysis of variance. We focused on three metrics that are important for forest management objectives for the area: forest carbon storage, area burned at high severity, and total area burned by wildfire. Management explained a substantial amount of variance in the short term for area burned at high severity and longer term carbon storage, while climate explained the most variance in total area burned. Our results suggest that simulated extensive management activities will not meet all the desired management objectives. Both the extent and intensity of forest management will need to increase significantly to keep pace with predicted climate and wildfire conditions.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Maxwell, Charles and Scheller, Robert M. and Long, Jonathan W. and Manley, Patricia}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{maxwell_scheller_long_manley_2022, title={Frequency of disturbance mitigates high-severity fire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California and Nevada}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-12954-270121}, abstractNote={Because of past land use changes and changing climate, forests are moving outside of their historical range of variation. As fires become more severe, forest managers are searching for strategies that can restore forest health and reduce fire risk. However, management activities are only one part of a suite of disturbance vectors that shape forest conditions. To account for the range of disturbance intensities and disturbance types (wildfire, bark beetles, and management), we developed a disturbance return interval (DRI) that represents the average return period for any disturbance, human or natural. We applied the DRI to examine forest change in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. We specifically investigated the consequences of DRI on the proportion of highseverity fire and the net sequestration of carbon. In order to test the management component of the DRI, we developed management scenarios with forest managers and stakeholders in the region; these scenarios were integrated into a mechanistic forest landscape model that also accounted for climate change, as well as natural disturbances of wildfire and insect outbreaks. Our results suggest increasing the frequency of disturbances (a lower DRI) would reduce the percentage of high-severity fire on landscape but not the total amount of wildfire in general. However, a higher DRI reduced carbon storage and sequestration, particularly in management strategies that emphasized prescribed fire over hand or mechanical fuel treatments.}, number={1}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Maxwell, Charles and Scheller, Robert M. and Long, Jonathan W. and Manley, Patricia}, year={2022}, month={Mar} }
 @article{patru-stupariu_furst_stupariu_scheller_2022, title={Interdisciplinary landscape analysis with novel technologies}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-022-01444-6}, number={5}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Patru-Stupariu, Ileana and Furst, Christine and Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={May}, pages={1207–1210} }
 @article{lucash_weiss_duveneck_scheller_2022, title={Managing for red-cockaded woodpeckers is more complicated under climate change}, volume={9}, ISSN={["1937-2817"]}, DOI={10.1002/jwmg.22309}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Weiss, Shelby and Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={Sep} }
 @article{evans_holland_long_maxwell_scheller_patrick_potts_2022, title={Modeling the Risk Reduction Benefit of Forest Management Using a Case Study in the Lake Tahoe Basin}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-13169-270218}, abstractNote={Across the United States, wildfire severity and frequency are increasing, placing many properties at risk of harm or destruction. We quantify and compare how different forest management strategies designed to increase forest resilience and health reduce the number of properties at risk from wildfire, focusing on the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. We combine landscape change simulations (including climate change, wildfire, and management effects) with scenarios of current and plausible fuel treatment activities and parcel-scale fire risk analysis. Results suggest that more aggressive fuel treatment activities that treat more area on the landscape, whether through mechanical and hand thinning or prescribed fire, dramatically lower the fire probability in the region and lead to a corresponding lower risk of property loss. We estimate that relative to recent practices of focusing management in the wildland–urban interface, more active forest management can reduce property loss risk by 45%–76%, or approximately 2600–4900 properties. The majority of this risk reduction is for single family residences, which constitute most structures in the region. Further, we find that the highest risk reduction is obtained through strategies that treat a substantially greater area than is currently treated in the region and allows for selective wildfires to burn for resource objectives outside of the wildland–urban interface. These results highlight the importance of more active forest management as an effective tool in reducing the wildfire risk to capital assets in the region.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Evans, Samuel G. and Holland, Tim G. and Long, Jonathan W. and Maxwell, Charles and Scheller, Robert M. and Patrick, Evan and Potts, Matthew D.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{white_holland_abelson_kretchun_maxwell_scheller_2022, title={Simulating wildlife habitat dynamics over the next century to help inform best management strategies for biodiversity in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-13301-270231}, abstractNote={. Many forests of the western United States have undergone over one hundred years of anthropogenic impacts that have led to increased tree density, homogenization in forest structure, and accumulation of woody material, which combined with a changing climate pose threats to valued social and ecological features. In California, recent waves of tree mortality and unprecedented large and destructive fires have led to rising concerns about the impact of these disturbances on biodiversity and how forest management actions can mitigate negative impacts. To better understand the degree to which different management scenarios could mitigate the negative impacts of these disturbances on biodiversity, we used a spatially explicit modeling platform to model forest management impacts on habitat for terrestrial vertebrate species in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. Specifically, we modeled how 5 different management scenarios that differed in the type of fuel reduction treatment (e.g., fire and mechanical removal of vegetation) and extent of area treated influenced the amount, value, and distribution of reproductive habitat for the 159 species present in the study area. Our model results suggested that within the study area forest growth was predicted to out-pace disturbance leading to a higher percentage of late seral conditions; however, choice of management strategy impacted the composition and structure of the forested landscape leading to different trajectories for wildlife. In general, scenarios that allowed for more extensive use of fire led to a more equitable distribution of habitat types, whereas extensive thinning by hand and mechanical methods resulted in future forest structure that provided better outcomes in terms of reproductive habitat for wildlife. Our modeling results also suggested that low to moderate management strategies were not likely to change the current trajectory to more dense forests dominated by fewer species.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={White, Angela M. and Holland, Tim G. and Abelson, Eric S. and Kretchun, Alec and Maxwell, Charles J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{holland_evans_long_maxwell_scheller_potts_2022, title={The management costs of alternative forest management strategies in the Lake Tahoe Basin}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-13481-270443}, abstractNote={. Wildfires play an important ecological role in fire-adapted landscapes throughout California. However, there is a growing awareness that large wildfires in increasingly populated areas incur costs that may not be acceptable to society. Various forest management strategies have been proposed that seek to reduce the prevalence and severity of wildfires in areas where these costs are high. In this study we estimate the financial costs of various hypothetical forest management scenarios in the Lake Tahoe West landscape of Northern California. The objective of the study was to quantify trade-offs and cost constraints that would affect the feasibility of each scenario. The scenarios ranged from minimal forest management to several options for more intensive fuels management that relied to varying degrees on thinning and prescribed burning. We assessed stand-level costs associated with thinning, prescribed burn management, and timber and biomass transport, as well as revenues from timber and energy chips sold. Using modeled fire occurrence and severity metrics, we also used historical wildfire data to estimate plausible fire suppression costs. Our findings suggest that increased forest management, through the use of either hand/mechanical treatments or prescribed fire, can reduce fire suppression costs relative to recent practices by more than US$400,000 per year. These more intensive management scenarios differ in their cost-effectiveness. Scenarios that increase the use of prescribed fire appear to be the more cost-effective management interventions available with annual costs roughly half as much as a scenario focused on increased hand and mechanical thinning. The results are useful for understanding the financial implications of modifying forest management practices designed to lower the private and social costs of wildfire in the region}, number={4}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Holland, Timothy G. and Evans, Samuel G. and Long, Jonathan W. and Maxwell, Charles and Scheller, Robert M. and Potts, Matthew D.}, year={2022}, month={Dec} }
 @article{dobre_long_maxwell_elliot_lew_brooks_scheller_2022, title={Water quality and forest restoration in the Lake Tahoe basin: impacts of future management options}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-13133-270206}, abstractNote={. Land managers in the Lake Tahoe basin are considering increasing the use of prescribed fire and forest thinning to restore conditions that will be more resilient to wildfires. However, such restorative treatments also constitute disturbances that could increase sediment and nutrient loads. We examined whether the water-quality impacts from future treatments are likely to be lower compared to the potential impacts from future wildfires under various climate change scenarios. We applied an online interface for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model in combination with a landscape change model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the effects of different combinations of thinning and prescribed burning on fine sediment (< 2 mm), very fine sediment (< 16 µm), and phosphorus over time. First, we generated results based on historic weather data for soil disturbance conditions, including: an undisturbed baseline, a uniform thinning treatment; a uniform prescribed fire treatment; and uniform low, moderate, and high wildfire burn severity. Residual ground cover declined in that order, and expected loads of sediment and phosphorus increased. We then combined the estimated loads from hillslopes with projected management-disturbance regimes across each decade of the next century. We found that expected sediment and phosphorus loads were lower under the scenario that emphasized thinning, whereas scenarios that increased prescribed burning resulted in loads that were comparable to scenarios that involved less treatment. These results reflect the finding from the WEPP analysis that prescribed burning is expected to reduce ground cover more than is thinning. Our analysis supports efforts to increase fuel reduction treatments to mitigate future wildfires, but it also suggests that preventative treatments may not avoid a long-term decline in water quality as wildfires increase with climate change.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Dobre, Mariana and Long, Jonathan W. and Maxwell, Charles and Elliot, William J. and Lew, Roger and Brooks, Erin S. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{sotnik_cassell_duveneck_scheller_2021, title={A new agent-based model provides insight into deep uncertainty faced in simulated forest management}, volume={8}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01324-5}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-021-01324-5}, abstractNote={Exploratory modeling in forestry uses a variety of approaches to simulate forest management. One important assumption that every approach makes is about the deep uncertainty—the lack of the knowledge required for making an informed decision—that future forest management will face. This assumption can strongly influence simulation results and their interpretation but is rarely studied. Our objective was to explore how differences in modeling approaches influence the deep uncertainty faced in simulated forest management. We used SOSIEL Harvest, a new agent-based extension to a landscape-change model, LANDIS-II, to simulate three approaches to modeling forest management. For each, we used the same forest and management data from Michigan, US, which isolated the differences among approaches as the only variable factor. We then used a new method, also introduced here, to measure and compare the deep uncertainty faced during simulated management. Finally, we used a typology of sources of uncertainty to categorize the sources responsible for this deep uncertainty. The simulated forest management in the three modeling approaches faced substantially different degrees of deep uncertainty, which translated into considerable differences in simulation results. There was an overall negative relationship between deep uncertainty and the ability of the management to respond to forest change and adapt decisions accordingly. While inherent deep uncertainty faced in simulated forest management can be substantial, it is overestimated by exploratory models that underestimate management’s ability to respond to forest change. Reducing such model-related uncertainty will allow for more realistic results from exploratory studies of forest management.}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Sotnik, Garry and Cassell, Brooke A. and Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2021}, month={Aug} }
 @misc{mozelewski_scheller_2021, title={Forecasting for intended consequences}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2578-4854"]}, DOI={10.1111/csp2.370}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE}, author={Mozelewski, Tina G. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2021}, month={Apr} }
 @article{henne_hawbaker_scheller_zhao_he_xu_zhu_2021, title={Increased burning in a warming climate reduces carbon uptake in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem despite productivity gains}, url={https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13559}, DOI={10.1111/1365-2745.13559}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Journal of Ecology}, author={Henne, Paul D. and Hawbaker, Todd J. and Scheller, Robert M. and Zhao, Feng and He, Hong S. and Xu, Wenru and Zhu, Zhiliang}, editor={Jucker, TommasoEditor}, year={2021}, month={Mar} }
 @misc{phelan_baumgartner_brand_brister_burgiel_charo_coche_cofrancesco_delborne_edwards_et al._2021, title={Intended consequences statement}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2578-4854"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85106753330&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1111/csp2.371}, abstractNote={Citation for published version: Phelan, R, Baumgartner, B, Brand, S, Brister, E, Burgiel, SW, Alta Charo, R, Coche, I, Cofrancesco, A, Delborne, J, Edwards, O, Fisher, JP, Gaywood, M, Gordon, DR, Howald, G, Hunter, ME, Kareiva, P, Mankad, A, Marvier, M, Moseby, K, Newhouse, A, Novak, BJ, Ohrstrom, G, Olson, S, Palmer, M, Palumbi, S, Patterson Jr., N, Pedrono, M, Pelegri, F, Rohwer, Y, Ryder, O, Royden Saah, J, Scheller, RM, Seddon, PJ, Shaffer, HB, Shapiro, B, Sweeney, M, Tercek, MR, Thizy, D, Tilt, W, Weber, M, Wegrzyn, R, Whitelaw, B, Winkler, M, Wodak, J, Zimring, M & Robbins, P 2021, 'Intended Consequences Statement in Conservation Science and Practice', Conservation Science and Practice. https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.371}, number={4}, journal={CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE}, author={Phelan, Ryan and Baumgartner, Bridget and Brand, Stewart and Brister, Evelyn and Burgiel, Stanley W. and Charo, R. Alta and Coche, Isabelle and Cofrancesco, Al and Delborne, Jason A. and Edwards, Owain and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Apr} }
 @article{olson_smithwick_lucash_scheller_nicholas_ruckert_caldwell_2021, title={Landscape-Scale Forest Reorganization Following Insect Invasion and Harvest Under Future Climate Change Scenarios}, volume={24}, ISSN={["1435-0629"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10021-021-00616-w}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={7}, journal={ECOSYSTEMS}, author={Olson, Stacey K. and Smithwick, Erica A. H. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Nicholas, Robert E. and Ruckert, Kelsey L. and Caldwell, Christopher M.}, year={2021}, month={Nov}, pages={1756–1774} }
 @article{vakili_shakeri_motahari_farahani_robbins_scheller_2021, title={Resistance and Resilience of Hyrcanian Mixed Forests Under Natural and Anthropogenic Disturbances}, volume={4}, ISSN={["2624-893X"]}, DOI={10.3389/ffgc.2021.640451}, abstractNote={Biological disturbances are integral to forest ecosystems and have pronounced effects on forest resistance, resilience, and diversity. The Hyrcanian mixed forest, in northern Iran, is at risk of declining resistance, resilience, and diversity due to ongoing pressure from land use change, harvesting, and biological disturbances. We analyzed the resistance and resilience of this area under two biological disturbances (i.e., oak charcoal fungus, Biscogniauxia mediterranea, and alder leaf beetle, Galerucella lineola) and in concert with proposed harvesting. We used a simulation modeling approach whereby we simulated 12 combinations of biological disturbances and harvesting scenarios using the LANDIS-II landscape change model. We estimated the correlation between forest resistance and resilience and tree species diversity to harvesting and biological disturbance. We analyzed the full species composition and age class for 30 and 100 years after disturbances in order to assess resistance as the change in species composition over time. We considered resilience as the ability to recover from a disturbance back to a similar initial state. Results indicate a positive effect of biological disturbances and harvesting on diversity. Our simulations resulted in a negative relationship between diversity-resistance and diversity-resilience within high diversity areas. Our simulation of the Hyrcanian forest reveals that harvesting and biological disturbances, as tested, fulfill the goal of maintaining forest diversity. However, increasing diversity does not always follow by increasing forest resistance and resilience. Scenarios with oak charcoal fungus, both with and without harvesting indicate the lowest decrease in resilient and resistant.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE}, author={Vakili, Mehdi and Shakeri, Zahed and Motahari, Saeed and Farahani, Maryam and Robbins, Zachary James and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2021}, month={Jul} }
 @article{huang_lucash_scheller_klippel_2021, title={Walking through the forests of the future: using data-driven virtual reality to visualize forests under climate change}, volume={11}, url={https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2020.1830997}, DOI={10.1080/13658816.2020.1830997}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Communicating and understanding climate induced environmental changes can be challenging, especially using traditional representations such as graphs, maps or photos. Immersive visualizations and experiences offer an intuitive, visceral approach to otherwise rather abstract concepts, but creating them scientifically is challenging. In this paper, we linked ecological modeling, procedural modeling, and virtual reality to provide an immersive experience of a future forest. We mapped current tree species composition in northern Wisconsin using the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and then forecast forest change 50 years into the future under two climate scenarios using LANDIS-II, a spatially-explicit, mechanistic simulation model. We converted the model output (e.g., tree biomass) into parameters required for 3D visualizations with analytical modeling. Procedural rules allowed us to efficiently and reproducibly translate the parameters into a simulated forest. Data visualization, environment exploration, and information retrieval were realized using the Unreal Engine. A system evaluation with experts in ecology provided positive feedback and future topics for a comprehensive ecosystem visualization and analysis approach. Our approach to create visceral experiences of forests under climate change can facilitate communication among experts, policy-makers, and the general public.}, journal={International Journal of Geographical Information Science}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Huang, Jiawei and Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Klippel, Alexander}, year={2021}, month={Jun}, pages={1–24} }
 @article{robbins_xu_aukema_buotte_chitra-tarak_fettig_goulden_goodsman_hall_koven_et al._2021, title={Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California}, volume={10}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, DOI={10.1111/gcb.15927}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Robbins, Zachary J. and Xu, Chonggang and Aukema, Brian H. and Buotte, Polly C. and Chitra-Tarak, Rutuja and Fettig, Christopher J. and Goulden, Michael L. and Goodsman, Devin W. and Hall, Alexander D. and Koven, Charles D. and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Oct} }
 @article{schrum_scheller_duveneck_lucash_2020, title={Base-Hurricane: A new extension for the Landis-II forest landscape model}, volume={133}, ISSN={["1873-6726"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104833}, abstractNote={Hurricanes in the southeast United States are infrequent disturbances that affect large areas and have a large effect on forest succession. In order to understand and quantify this effect, we added a new module to the LANDIS-II landscape change model. Focusing on the southeast coast of the United States, we simulated stochastic hurricanes for 50 years. For each simulated storm, the new model extension generates the maximum sustained wind speed over the region and uses the resulting parameter surface to compute maximum sustained wind speed for each cohort cell in a raster grid. Mortality is estimated for each species and age cohort in each cell based on the maximum sustained wind speed, altering forest succession. Results indicate that hurricanes reduce average aboveground biomass by > 20% over 50 years on a landscape in Fort Bragg, North Carolina (USA) compared to a scenario without hurricanes and increased uncertainty of projected succession.}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE}, author={Schrum, Paul and Scheller, Robert M. and Duveneck, Matthew J. and Lucash, Melissa S.}, year={2020}, month={Nov} }
 @article{maxwell_serra-diaz_scheller_thompson_2020, title={Co-designed management scenarios shape the responses of seasonally dry forests to changing climate and fire regimes}, volume={57}, ISSN={["1365-2664"]}, DOI={10.1111/1365-2664.13630}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={7}, journal={JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY}, author={Maxwell, Charles J. and Serra-Diaz, Josep M. and Scheller, Robert M. and Thompson, Jonathan R.}, year={2020}, month={Jul}, pages={1328–1340} }
 @misc{mclauchlan_higuera_miesel_rogers_schweitzer_shuman_tepley_varner_veblen_adalsteinsson_et al._2020, title={Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers}, volume={108}, ISSN={["1365-2745"]}, DOI={10.1111/1365-2745.13403}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={5}, journal={JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY}, author={McLauchlan, Kendra K. and Higuera, Philip E. and Miesel, Jessica and Rogers, Brendan M. and Schweitzer, Jennifer and Shuman, Jacquelyn K. and Tepley, Alan J. and Varner, J. Morgan and Veblen, Thomas T. and Adalsteinsson, Solny A. and et al.}, year={2020}, month={Sep}, pages={2047–2069} }
 @article{petter_mairota_albrich_bebi_bruna_bugmann_haffenden_scheller_schmatz_seidl_et al._2020, title={How robust are future projections of forest landscape dynamics? Insights from a systematic comparison of four forest landscape models}, volume={134}, ISSN={["1873-6726"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104844}, abstractNote={Projections of landscape dynamics are uncertain, partly due to uncertainties in model formulations. However, quantitative comparative analyses of forest landscape models are lacking. We conducted a systematic comparison of all forest landscape models currently applied in temperate European forests (LandClim, TreeMig, LANDIS-II, iLand). We examined the uncertainty of model projections under several future climate, disturbance, and dispersal scenarios, and quantified uncertainties by variance partitioning. While projections under past climate conditions were in good agreement with observations, uncertainty under future climate conditions was high, with between-model biomass differences of up to 200 t ha−1. Disturbances strongly influenced landscape dynamics and contributed substantially to uncertainty in model projections (~25–40% of observed variance). Overall, model differences were the main source of uncertainty, explaining at least 50% of observed variance. We advocate a more rigorous and systematic model evaluation and calibration, and a broader use of ensemble projections to quantify uncertainties in future landscape dynamics.}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE}, author={Petter, Gunnar and Mairota, Paola and Albrich, Katharina and Bebi, Peter and Bruna, Josef and Bugmann, Harald and Haffenden, Austin and Scheller, Robert M. and Schmatz, Dirk R. and Seidl, Rupert and et al.}, year={2020}, month={Dec} }
 @article{maxwell_scheller_2020, title={Identifying Habitat Holdouts for High Elevation Tree Species Under Climate Change}, volume={2}, ISSN={["2624-893X"]}, DOI={10.3389/ffgc.2019.00094}, abstractNote={High elevation tree species are at great risk of decline under climate change—particularly in ranges below tree line where upslope movement is not possible—as warmer temperatures reduce snowpack and increase evaporative demand. Forecasting future locations of persistence is key to the conservation of those species. In this study, we had two major objectives: (1) to determine the potential decline in the extent of three montane conifers in California, USA, and (2) to assess how model resolution affected our estimates of decline and whether this could inform identifying potential holdouts. To do so, we forecast forest dynamics, disturbances, and future distributions of three montane conifer species under a changing climate in the Klamath Mountains using the LANDIS-II forest simulation model. Simulations were run under two grain sizes, 0.81 and 7.29 ha cells, and four GCMs representing three relative concentration pathways. The area occupied by the three montane conifers declined by the end of the twenty-first century, with only a few areas where the species were able to persist. Higher levels of climate forcing resulted in greater declines. Moreover, higher temperatures reduced tree regeneration although adult populations persisted despite the climate disequilibrium. Model resolution but did not alter the overall trend of decline. These species were projected to remain in only a few limited areas by the end of the century, but because these species are widely dispersed on the larger landscape, managers must consider trade-offs between local and broader conservation efforts and consider the current and potential range of these conifers throughout the west.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE}, author={Maxwell, Charles J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2020}, month={Jan} }
 @book{scheller_2020, title={Managing Landscapes for Change}, ISBN={9783030620400 9783030620417}, ISSN={1572-7742 1875-1210}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-62041-7}, DOI={10.1007/978-3-030-62041-7}, abstractNote={This authored book discusses the drivers of landscape change and the unique effects of these processes on different landscapes, addresses how humans are active agents of landscape change, and determines landscape trajectories to evaluate future management options.}, journal={Landscape Series}, publisher={Springer International Publishing}, author={Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2020} }
 @article{scheller_kretchun_hawbaker_henne_2019, title={A landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes}, volume={401}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.03.022}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.03.022}, abstractNote={Fire regimes are now recognized as the product of social processes whereby fire on any landscape is the product of human-generated drivers: climate change, historical patterns of vegetation manipulation, invasive species, active fire suppression, ongoing fuel management efforts, prescribed burning, and accidental ignitions. We developed a new fire model (Social-Climate Related Pyrogenic Processes and their Landscape Effects: SCRPPLE) that emphasizes the social dimensions of fire and enables simulation of fuel-treatment effects, fire suppression, and prescribed fires. Fire behavior was parameterized with daily fire weather, ignition, and fire-boundary data. SCRPPLE was initially parameterized and developed for the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) in California and Nevada, USA although its behavior is general and could be applied worldwide. We demonstrate the behavior and utility of our model via four simple scenarios that emphasize the social dimensions of fire regimes: a) Recent Historical: simulated recent historical patterns of lightning and accidental fires and current patterns of fire suppression, b) Natural-Fire-Regime: simulated wildfire without suppression, accidental fires, or prescribed fires, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical, c) Enhanced Suppression: simulated a doubling of the effectiveness of suppression, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical, and d) Reduced Accidental Ignitions: within which the number of accidental fires was reduced by half, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical. Results indicate that SCRPPLE can recreate past fire regimes, including size, intensity, and locations. Furthermore, our results indicate that the 'Enhanced Suppression' and 'Reduced Accidental Ignitions' scenarios had similar capacity to reduce fire and related tree mortality over time, suggesting that within the broad outlines of the scenarios, reducing accidental fires can be as effective as substantially increasing resources for suppression.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Scheller, Robert and Kretchun, Alec and Hawbaker, Todd J. and Henne, Paul D.}, year={2019}, month={Jun}, pages={85–93} }
 @article{lucash_ruckert_nicholas_scheller_smithwick_2019, title={Complex interactions among successional trajectories and climate govern spatial resilience after severe windstorms in central Wisconsin, USA}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-019-00929-1}, number={12}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Ruckert, Kelsey L. and Nicholas, Robert E. and Scheller, Robert M. and Smithwick, Erica A. H.}, year={2019}, month={Dec}, pages={2897–2915} }
 @article{flanagan_bhotika_hawley_starr_wiesner_hiers_o'brien_goodrick_callaham_scheller_et al._2019, title={Quantifying carbon and species dynamics under different fire regimes in a southeastern US pineland}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.2772}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={6}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Flanagan, Steven A. and Bhotika, Smriti and Hawley, Christie and Starr, Gregory and Wiesner, Susanne and Hiers, J. Kevin and O'Brien, Joseph J. and Goodrick, Scott and Callaham, Mac A., Jr. and Scheller, Robert M. and et al.}, year={2019}, month={Jun} }
 @article{krofcheck_loudermilk_hiers_scheller_hurteau_2019, title={The effects of management on long-term carbon stability in a southeastern US forest matrix under extreme fire weather}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.2631}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Krofcheck, D. J. and Loudermilk, E. L. and Hiers, J. K. and Scheller, R. M. and Hurteau, M. D.}, year={2019}, month={Mar} }
 @article{cassell_scheller_lucash_hurteau_loudermilk_2019, title={Widespread severe wildfires under climate change lead to increased forest homogeneity in dry mixed-conifer forests}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.2934}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={11}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Cassell, Brooke A. and Scheller, Robert M. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Hurteau, Matthew D. and Loudermilk, E. Louise}, year={2019}, month={Nov} }
 @article{spies_scheller_bolte_2018, title={Adaptation in fire-prone landscapes: interactions of policies, management, wildfire, and social networks in Oregon, USA}, volume={23}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/es-10079-230211}, abstractNote={This editorial introduces the special feature on the social-ecological system of a fire-prone forest landscape in Oregon, USA. Research into social-ecological systems of fire-frequent landscapes is in its infancy and this special feature highlights one of the first attempts to understand a fire-dependent forest landscape from this perspective. An agent-based landscape modeling framework, Envision, was the primary tool for the research. The papers in this special feature examine three major questions: (1) What is the landscape structure of forest conditions, fire regimes, ownerships, and attitudes toward fire and forest management?; (2) How are social networks of the study region structured and how might they influence attitudes and actions of landowners?; (3) How do land management policies, institutions, and decisions interact to influence future fire occurrence, biodiversity, and ecosystem services? The findings of the empirical research and simulation modeling reveal how the high ecological and social (e.g., landownership and management goals) diversity of the region contributes to very different fire potentials, attitudes, and management approaches across space. The social network analysis reveals that the social network is divided into fire protection and fire restoration subnetworks that only a few organizations were able to bridge. The simulation modeling shows how difficult it can be to affect fire behavior across large areas, and what the trade-offs of different management actions might be in terms of ecosystem services and fire risk. The special feature also includes papers that examine how social science research is influenced by the use of an agent-based model, and what has been learned about the process of conducting social-ecological research and engaging with stakeholders with the goal of improving understanding of and adaptation to fire-frequent landscapes.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Spies, Thomas A. and Scheller, Robert M. and Bolte, John P.}, year={2018} }
 @article{luintel_bluffstone_scheller_2018, title={An assessment of collective action drivers of carbon storage in Nepalese forest commons}, volume={90}, ISSN={1389-9341}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.FORPOL.2018.01.012}, DOI={10.1016/J.FORPOL.2018.01.012}, abstractNote={Decentralized forestry has evolved as a strategy for the management of forests in many developing countries and key institutional factors driving forest collective action have also been identified. We analyzed 130 Nepalese forest commons to determine how key forest collective action variables are associated with carbon storage. As expected, we find household participation in forest management and public audit have favorable implications for carbon storage. However, we also find conservation duration, communities' ability to modify rules and existence of penalty system have constraining, and mutual trust have no or neutral implications for carbon storage. These findings indicate that better collective action does not necessarily store additional carbon. If forest commons in developing countries are to contribute to global climate change initiatives, such as the United Nation's program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD +), our findings suggest the need for dedicated policies and programs to create additional incentives.}, journal={Forest Policy and Economics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Luintel, Harisharan and Bluffstone, Randall A. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2018}, month={May}, pages={39–47} }
 @article{serra-diaz_maxwell_lucash_scheller_laflower_miller_tepley_epstein_anderson-teixeira_thompson_2018, title={Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century}, volume={8}, ISSN={["2045-2322"]}, DOI={10.1038/s41598-018-24642-2}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={SCIENTIFIC REPORTS}, author={Serra-Diaz, Josep M. and Maxwell, Charles and Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Laflower, Danelle M. and Miller, Adam D. and Tepley, Alan J. and Epstein, Howard E. and Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J. and Thompson, Jonathan R.}, year={2018}, month={Apr} }
 @article{scheller_parajuli_2018, title={Forest Management for Climate Change in New England and the Klamath Ecoregions: Motivations, Practices, and Barriers}, volume={9}, ISSN={["1999-4907"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.3390/f9100626}, DOI={10.3390/f9100626}, abstractNote={Understanding perceptions and attitudes of forest managers toward climate change and climate adaptive forest management is crucial, as they are expected to implement changes to forest resource management. We assessed the perceptions of forest managers toward climate adaptive forest management practices through a survey of forest managers working in private firms and public agencies in New England and the Klamath ecoregion (northern California and southwestern Oregon). We analyzed the motivations, actions, and potential barriers to action of forest managers toward climate adaptive forest management practices. Results suggest that managing for natural regeneration is the most common climate adaptive forest management approach considered by forest managers in both regions. Lack of information about the best strategies for reducing climate change risks, lack of education and awareness among the clients, and perceived client costs were forest managers’ primary barriers to climate adaptive management. Our findings suggest useful insights toward the policy and program design in climate adaptive forest management for both areas.}, number={10}, journal={FORESTS}, publisher={MDPI AG}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Parajuli, Rajan}, year={2018}, month={Oct} }
 @article{kruhlov_thom_chaskovskyy_keeton_scheller_2018, title={Future forest landscapes of the Carpathians: vegetation and carbon dynamics under climate change}, volume={18}, ISSN={["1436-378X"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10113-018-1296-8}, number={5}, journal={REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE}, author={Kruhlov, Ivan and Thom, Dominik and Chaskovskyy, Oleh and Keeton, William S. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2018}, month={Jun}, pages={1555–1567} }
 @article{lucash_scheller_sturtevant_gustafson_kretchun_foster_2018, title={More than the sum of its parts: how disturbance interactions shape forest dynamics under climate change}, volume={9}, ISSN={2150-8925}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ECS2.2293}, DOI={10.1002/ECS2.2293}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={6}, journal={Ecosphere}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Kretchun, Alec M. and Foster, Jane R.}, year={2018}, month={Jun}, pages={e02293} }
 @article{krofcheck_hurteau_scheller_loudermilk_2018, title={Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests}, volume={24}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000423994700044&KeyUID=WOS:000423994700044}, DOI={10.1111/gcb.13913}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={Global Change Biology}, author={Krofcheck, Daniel J. and Hurteau, Matthew D. and Scheller, Robert M. and Loudermilk, E. Louise}, year={2018}, pages={729–737} }
 @article{scheller_2018, title={The challenges of forest modeling given climate change}, volume={33}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-018-0689-x}, number={9}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2018}, month={Sep}, pages={1481–1488} }
 @article{luintel_bluffstone_scheller_2018, title={The effects of the Nepal community forestry program on biodiversity conservation and carbon storage}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0199526}, abstractNote={Approximately 15.5% of global forest is controlled by ~1 billion local people and the area under community control is increasing. However, there is limited empirical evidence as to whether community control is effective in providing critical global ecosystem services, such as biodiversity conservation and carbon storage. We assess the effectiveness of one example of community-controlled forest, Nepal’s Community Forestry Program (CFP), at providing biodiversity conservation and carbon storage. Using data from 620 randomly selected CFP and non-CFP forest plots, we apply a robust matching method based on covariates to estimate whether CFPs are associated with greater biodiversity conservation or carbon storage. Our results reveal a significant positive effect of CFP on biodiversity, which is robust against the influence of unobserved covariates. Our results also suggest a significant negative effect of the CFP on aboveground tree and sapling carbon (AGC) at the national scale (-15.11 Mg C ha-1). However, the CFP has a mixed effect on carbon across geographic and topographic regions and in forests with different canopy covers. Though there were no significant effects of the CFP on AGC at lower altitudes, in the Terai or hill regions, and under closed canopies, there were positive effects in open canopies (25.84 Mg C ha-1) at lower slopes (25.51 Mg C ha-1) and negative effects at higher altitudes (-22.81 Mg C ha-1) and higher slopes (-17.72 Mg C ha-1). Our sensitivity analysis revealed that the positive effects are robust to unobserved covariates, which is not true for the negative results. In aggregate, our results demonstrate that CFP can be an effective forest management strategy to contribute to global ecosystem services such as biodiversity, and to a lesser extent carbon.}, number={6}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Luintel, Harisharan and Bluffstone, Randall A. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2018}, month={Jun} }
 @article{klimaszewski-patterson_weisberg_mensing_scheller_2018, title={Using Paleolandscape Modeling to Investigate the Impact of Native American-Set Fires on Pre-Columbian Forests in the Southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA}, volume={108}, ISSN={["2469-4460"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2018.1470922}, DOI={10.1080/24694452.2018.1470922}, abstractNote={Ethnographic accounts document widespread use of low-intensity surface fires by California's Native Americans to manage terrestrial resources, yet the effects of such practices on forest composition and structure remain largely unknown. Although numerous paleoenvironmental studies debate whether proxy interpretations indicate climatic or anthropogenic drivers of landscape change, available data sources (e.g., pollen, charcoal) are generally insufficient to resolve anthropogenic impacts and do not allow for hypothesis testing. We use a modeling approach with LANDIS-II, a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, to test whether the addition of Native American–set surface fires was necessary to approximate vegetation change as reconstructed from fossil pollen. We use an existing 1,600-year pollen and charcoal record from Holey Meadow, Sequoia National Forest, California, as the empirical data set to which we compared modeled results of climatic and anthropogenic fire regimes. We found that the addition of anthropogenic burning best approximated fossil pollen–reconstructed vegetation change, particularly during periods of prolonged cooler, wetter periods coinciding with greater regional Native American activity (1550–1050 and 750–100 cal yr BP). For lightning-caused wildfires to statistically approximate the pollen record required at least twenty times more ignitions and 870 percent more area burned annually during the Little Ice Age (750–100 cal yr BP) than observed during the modern period (AD 1985–2006), a level of natural fire increase we consider highly improbable. These results demonstrate that (1) anthropogenic burning was likely an important cause of pre-Columbian forest structure at the site and (2) dynamic landscape models provide a valuable method for testing hypotheses of paleoenvironmental change.}, number={6}, journal={ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOGRAPHERS}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Klimaszewski-Patterson, Anna and Weisberg, Peter J. and Mensing, Scott A. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2018}, month={Nov}, pages={1635–1654} }
 @article{loudermilk_scheller_weisberg_kretchun_2017, title={Bending the carbon curve: fire management for carbon resilience under climate change}, volume={32}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000404677500011&KeyUID=WOS:000404677500011}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-016-0447-x}, abstractNote={Forest landscapes are increasingly managed for fire resilience, particularly in the western US which has recently experienced drought and widespread, high-severity wildfires. Fuel reduction treatments have been effective where fires coincide with treated areas. Fuel treatments also have the potential to reduce drought-mortality if tree density is uncharacteristically high, and to increase long-term carbon storage by reducing high-severity fire probability. Assess whether fuel treatments reduce fire intensity and spread and increase carbon storage under climate change. We used a simulation modeling approach that couples a landscape model of forest disturbance and succession with an ecosystem model of carbon dynamics (Century), to quantify the interacting effects of climate change, fuel treatments and wildfire for carbon storage potential in a mixed-conifer forest in the western USA. Our results suggest that fuel treatments have the potential to ‘bend the C curve’, maintaining carbon resilience despite climate change and climate-related changes to the fire regime. Simulated fuel treatments resulted in reduced fire spread and severity. There was partial compensation of C lost during fuel treatments with increased growth of residual stock due to greater available soil water, as well as a shift in species composition to more drought- and fire-tolerant Pinus jeffreyi at the expense of shade-tolerant, fire-susceptible Abies concolor. Forest resilience to global change can be achieved through management that reduces drought stress and supports the establishment and dominance of tree species that are more fire- and drought-resistant, however, achieving a net C gain from fuel treatments may take decades.}, number={7}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Loudermilk, E. L. and Scheller, R. M. and Weisberg, P. J. and Kretchun, Alec}, year={2017}, month={Jul}, pages={1461–1472} }
 @article{creutzburg_scheller_lucash_leduc_johnson_2017, title={Forest management scenarios in a changing climate: trade-offs between carbon, timber, and old forest}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000395634300015&KeyUID=WOS:000395634300015}, DOI={10.1002/eap.1460}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Creutzburg, Megan K. and Scheller, Robert M. and Lucash, Melissa S. and LeDuc, Stephen D. and Johnson, Mark G.}, year={2017}, pages={503–518} }
 @article{scheller_kretchun_loudermilk_hurteau_weisberg_skinner_2017, title={Interactions Among Fuel Management, Species Composition, Bark Beetles, and Climate Change and the Potential Effects on Forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin}, volume={21}, ISSN={1432-9840 1435-0629}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/S10021-017-0175-3}, DOI={10.1007/S10021-017-0175-3}, abstractNote={Climate-driven increases in wildfires, drought conditions, and insect outbreaks are critical threats to forest carbon stores. In particular, bark beetles are important disturbance agents although their long-term interactions with future climate change are poorly understood. Droughts and the associated moisture deficit contribute to the onset of bark beetle outbreaks although outbreak extent and severity is dependent upon the density of host trees, wildfire, and forest management. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate change and bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystem carbon dynamics over the next century in a western US forest. Specifically, we hypothesized that (a) bark beetle outbreaks under climate change would reduce net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) and increase uncertainty and (b) these effects could be ameliorated by fuels management. We also examined the specific tree species dynamics—competition and release—that determined NECB response to bark beetle outbreaks. Our study area was the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB), CA and NV, USA, an area of diverse forest types encompassing steep elevation and climatic gradients and representative of mixed-conifer forests throughout the western United States. We simulated climate change, bark beetles, wildfire, and fuels management using a landscape-scale stochastic model of disturbance and succession. We simulated the period 2010–2100 using downscaled climate projections. Recurring droughts generated conditions conducive to large-scale outbreaks; the resulting large and sustained outbreaks significantly increased the probability of LTB forests becoming C sources over decadal time scales, with slower-than-anticipated landscape-scale recovery. Tree species composition was substantially altered with a reduction in functional redundancy and productivity. Results indicate heightened uncertainty due to the synergistic influences of climate change and interacting disturbances. Our results further indicate that current fuel management practices will not be effective at reducing landscape-scale outbreak mortality. Our results provide critical insights into the interaction of drivers (bark beetles, wildfire, fuel management) that increase the risk of C loss and shifting community composition if bark beetle outbreaks become more frequent.}, number={4}, journal={Ecosystems}, publisher={Springer Nature}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Kretchun, Alec M. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Hurteau, Matthew D. and Weisberg, Peter J. and Skinner, Carl}, year={2017}, month={Aug}, pages={643–656} }
 @article{krofcheck_hurteau_scheller_loudermilk_2017, title={Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada}, volume={8}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000396526300031&KeyUID=WOS:000396526300031}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.1663}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Krofcheck, Daniel J. and Hurteau, Matthew D. and Scheller, Robert M. and Loudermilk, E. Louise}, year={2017}, month={Jan} }
 @article{lucash_scheller_gustafson_sturtevant_2017, title={Spatial resilience of forested landscapes under climate change and management}, volume={32}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000400233800003&KeyUID=WOS:000400233800003}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-017-0501-3}, abstractNote={Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change. Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota. Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years. Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed. Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience.}, number={5}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Sturtevant, Brian R.}, year={2017}, month={May}, pages={953–969} }
 @article{luintel_bluffstone_scheller_adhikari_2017, title={The Effect of the Nepal Community Forestry Program on Equity in Benefit Sharing}, volume={26}, ISSN={["1552-5465"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000407600800003&KeyUID=WOS:000407600800003}, DOI={10.1177/1070496517707305}, abstractNote={We assessed the effectiveness of Nepalese Community Forestry Program (CFP) in increasing local perceptions of equity in benefit sharing. Our aim is to inform emerging forest policy that aims to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity conservation, and address poverty and livelihood needs. We collected data from 1,300 households from nationally representative samples of 65 CFP communities and 65 non-CFP communities. By using a robust method of covariates matching, we demonstrate the unique and positive effect of the CFP on perception of equity in benefit sharing at national level and among poor, Dalits, indigenous and women-headed households and in the hills (except Terai). Our results suggest the need to continue the current benefit-sharing practices in CFP except in the Terai, where such practices need to be reviewed. However, caution should be taken in implementing emerging carbon-focused forestry so that it does not alter the CFP management sufficiently to conflict with equity goals and upend the generally positive effects on equity.}, number={3}, journal={JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT & DEVELOPMENT}, author={Luintel, Harisharan and Bluffstone, Randall A. and Scheller, Robert M. and Adhikari, Bhim}, year={2017}, month={Sep}, pages={297–321} }
 @article{creutzburg_scheller_lucash_evers_leduc_johnson_2016, title={Bioenergy harvest, climate change, and forest carbon in the Oregon Coast Range}, volume={8}, ISSN={["1757-1707"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000370492100009&KeyUID=WOS:000370492100009}, DOI={10.1111/gcbb.12255}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY BIOENERGY}, author={Creutzburg, Megan K. and Scheller, Robert M. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Evers, Louisa B. and Leduc, Stephen D. and Johnson, Mark G.}, year={2016}, month={Mar}, pages={357–370} }
 @article{dymond_beukema_nitschke_coates_scheller_2016, title={Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1726-4189"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000377274100013&KeyUID=WOS:000377274100013}, DOI={10.5194/bg-13-1933-2016}, abstractNote={Abstract. Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper–Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.}, number={6}, journal={BIOGEOSCIENCES}, author={Dymond, Caren C. and Beukema, Sarah and Nitschke, Craig R. and Coates, K. David and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2016}, pages={1933–1947} }
 @article{kretchun_loudermilk_scheller_hurteau_belmecheri_2016, title={Climate and bark beetle effects on forest productivity - linking dendroecology with forest landscape modeling}, volume={46}, ISSN={["1208-6037"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000380902500005&KeyUID=WOS:000380902500005}, DOI={10.1139/cjfr-2016-0103}, abstractNote={ In forested systems throughout the world, climate influences tree growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP). The effects of extreme climate events (i.e., drought) on ANPP can be compounded by biotic factors (e.g., insect outbreaks). Understanding the contribution of each of these influences on growth requires information at multiple spatial scales and is essential for understanding regional forest response to changing climate. The mixed conifer forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin, California and Nevada, provide an opportunity to analyze biotic and abiotic influences on ANPP. Our objective was to evaluate the influence of moisture stress (climatic water deficit, CWD) and bark beetles on basin-wide ANPP from 1987 to 2006, estimated through tree core increments and a landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II). Tree ring data revealed that ANPP increased throughout this period and had a nonlinear relationship to water demand. Simulation model results showed that despite increased complexity, simulations that include moderate moisture sensitivity and bark beetle outbreaks most closely approximated the field-derived ANPP∼CWD relationship. Although bark beetle outbreaks and episodic drought-induced mortality events are often correlated, decoupling them within a simulation model offers insight into assessing model performance, as well as examining how each contributes to total declines in productivity. }, number={8}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH}, author={Kretchun, Alec M. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Scheller, Robert M. and Hurteau, Matthew D. and Belmecheri, Soumaya}, year={2016}, month={Aug}, pages={1026–1034} }
 @article{mayer_buma_davis_gagne_loudermilk_scheller_schmiegelow_wiersma_franklin_2016, title={How Landscape Ecology Informs Global Land-Change Science and Policy}, volume={66}, ISSN={["1525-3244"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000377157000005&KeyUID=WOS:000377157000005}, DOI={10.1093/biosci/biw035}, abstractNote={Landscape ecology is a discipline that explicitly considers the influence of time and space on the environmental patterns we observe and the processes that create them. Although many of the topics studied in landscape ecology have public policy implications, three are of particular concern: climate change; land use–land cover change (LULCC); and a particular type of LULCC, urbanization. These processes are interrelated, because LULCC is driven by both human activities (e.g., agricultural expansion and urban sprawl) and climate change (e.g., desertification). Climate change, in turn, will affect the way humans use landscapes. Interactions among these drivers of ecosystem change can have destabilizing and accelerating feedback, with consequences for human societies from local to global scales. These challenges require landscape ecologists to engage policymakers and practitioners in seeking long-term solutions, informed by an understanding of opportunities to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic drivers on ecosystems and adapt to new ecological realities.}, number={6}, journal={BIOSCIENCE}, author={Mayer, Audrey L. and Buma, Brian and Davis, Amelie and Gagne, Sara A. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Scheller, Robert M. and Schmiegelow, Fiona K. A. and Wiersma, Yolanda F. and Franklin, Janet}, year={2016}, month={Jun}, pages={458–469} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2016, title={Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests (USA)}, volume={31}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000372319400014&KeyUID=WOS:000372319400014}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-015-0273-6}, number={3}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2016}, month={Mar}, pages={669–686} }
 @book{gustafson_m.s. lucash_h. jenny_k. barrett_sturtevant_2016, title={Seeing the future impacts of climate change and forest management: a landscape visualization system for forest managers}, volume={NRS-164}, journal={USFS General Technical Report}, author={Gustafson, E.G. and M.S. Lucash, J. Liem and H. Jenny, R.M. Scheller and K. Barrett and Sturtevant, B.R.}, year={2016} }
 @article{scheller_kretchun_van tuyl_clark_lucash_hom_2016, title={Supplement 1. Input data required for running simulations in LANDIS-II.}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2017040010799274&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2017040010799274}, DOI={10.6084/m9.figshare.3563787.v1}, journal={Figshare}, author={Scheller, Robert M and Kretchun, Alec M and Van Tuyl, Steve and Clark, Kenneth L and Lucash, Melissa S and Hom, John}, year={2016} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity}, volume={25}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000360813100018&KeyUID=WOS:000360813100018}, DOI={10.1890/14-0738.1}, abstractNote={Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate‐suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS‐II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2‐ha cell resolution and five‐year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low‐ and high‐emission futures. We simulated a low‐emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high‐emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business‐as‐usual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five‐year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass).}, number={6}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2015}, month={Sep}, pages={1653–1668} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={Data from: Climate suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2015122006956601&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2015122006956601}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{serra-diaz_scheller_syphard_franklin_2015, title={Disturbance and climate microrefugia mediate tree range shifts during climate change}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000355657200007&KeyUID=WOS:000355657200007}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-015-0173-9}, number={6}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Serra-Diaz, Josep M. and Scheller, Robert M. and Syphard, Alexandra D. and Franklin, Janet}, year={2015}, month={Jul}, pages={1039–1053} }
 @article{yang_weisberg_shinneman_dilts_earnst_scheller_2015, title={Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000355657200008&KeyUID=WOS:000355657200008}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-015-0160-1}, abstractNote={Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5 °C increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales.}, number={6}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Yang, Jian and Weisberg, Peter J. and Shinneman, Douglas J. and Dilts, Thomas E. and Earnst, Susan L. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2015}, month={Jul}, pages={1055–1073} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MI_DYNAMIC_INPUTS_COMBINED_CLIMATES}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021348&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021348}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/6}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MI_biomass-succession-all_climates_combined}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021339&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021339}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/2}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MI_harvest_COMBINED}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021345&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021345}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/4}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MN Biomass Succession files}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021338&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021338}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/1}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MN_DYNAMIC_INPUTS_COMBINED_CLIMATES}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021336&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021336}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/5}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MN_Harvest_COMBINED}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021342&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021342}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/3}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{halsey_zielinski_scheller_2015, title={Modeling predator habitat to enhance reintroduction planning}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000357293800008&KeyUID=WOS:000357293800008}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-015-0177-5}, abstractNote={The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a self-sustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus). To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable for reintroduction. Using camera survey data, we modeled the association between bobcat presence and environmental features using a classification tree. We applied this model to a spatial analysis of fisher habitat and identified reintroduction areas in the southern Washington Cascade Range. The classification tree predicted bobcat detection based on elevation and mean tree diameter. The final model identified fisher reintroduction locations primarily in or near existing wilderness areas. Fisher habitat areas identified considering both habitat and predation risk differed from those identified without considering predation. Our spatial approach is unique among fisher reintroduction plans by accounting for both resource requirements and risk of predation. It can be used as a template for future reintroduction efforts in other regions and for other species. Using similar models to refine population management and reintroduction should improve the probability of successful population establishment and stability.}, number={7}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Halsey, Shiloh M. and Zielinski, William J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2015}, month={Aug}, pages={1257–1271} }
 @article{yang_weisberg_dilts_loudermilk_scheller_stanton_skinner_2015, title={Predicting wildfire occurrence distribution with spatial point process models and its uncertainty assessment: a case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA}, volume={24}, ISSN={["1448-5516"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000354808600010&KeyUID=WOS:000354808600010}, DOI={10.1071/wf14001}, abstractNote={

Strategic fire and fuel management planning benefits from detailed understanding of how wildfire occurrences are distributed spatially under current climate, and from predictive models of future wildfire occurrence given climate change scenarios. In this study, we fitted historical wildfire occurrence data from 1986 to 2009 to a suite of spatial point process (SPP) models with a model averaging approach. We then predicted human- and lightning-caused wildfire occurrence over the 2010–2100 period in the Lake Tahoe Basin, a forested watershed in the western US with an extensive wildland–urban interface. The purpose of our research was threefold, including (1) to quantify the influence of biophysical and anthropogenic explanatory variables on spatial patterns of wildfire occurrence, (2) to model current and future spatial distribution of wildfire occurrence under two carbon emission scenarios (A2 and B1), and (3) to assess prediction uncertainty due to model selection. We found that climate variables exerted stronger influences on lightning-caused fires, with climatic water deficit the most important climatic variable for both human- and lightning-caused fires. The recent spatial distribution of wildfire hotspots was mainly constrained by anthropogenic factors because most wildfires were human-caused. The future distribution of hotspots (i.e. places with high fire occurrence density), however, was predicted to shift to higher elevations and ridge tops due to a more rapid increase of lightning-caused fires. Landscape-scale mean fire occurrence density, averaged from our top SPP models with similar empirical support, was predicted to increase by 210% and 70% of the current level under the A2 and B1 scenarios. However, individual top SPP models could lead to substantially different predictions including a small decrease, a moderate increase, and a very large increase, demonstrating the critical need to account for model uncertainty.
}, number={3}, journal={INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE}, author={Yang, Jian and Weisberg, Peter J. and Dilts, Thomas E. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Scheller, Robert M. and Stanton, Alison and Skinner, Carl}, year={2015}, pages={380–390} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={ReadMe}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021351&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021351}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/7}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @inbook{scheller_swanson_2015, title={Simulating forest recovery following disturbances: Vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry}, ISBN={9783319198095}, DOI={10.1007/978-3-319-19809-5_10}, booktitle={Simulation modeling of forest landscape disturbances}, publisher={Cham : Springer International Publishing}, author={Scheller, Robert and Swanson, M.E}, editor={A.H. Perera, B.R. Sturtevant and Buse, L.J.Editors}, year={2015} }
 @article{jenny_liem_lucash_scheller_2014, title={4-D Statistical Surface Method for Visual Change Detection in Forest Ecosystem Simulation Time Series}, volume={7}, ISSN={["2151-1535"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000347875700020&KeyUID=WOS:000347875700020}, DOI={10.1109/jstars.2014.2324972}, abstractNote={Rising uncertainties associated with climate change compel forest management planning to include forest ecosystem simulations. The output of such models is often of high spatio-temporal complexity and difficult to interpret for the user. This contribution describes a novel visualization method called four-dimensional (4-D) statistical surfaces, which aims at improving the visual detection of change in time series. The method visualizes attribute values as surfaces, which are interpolated and animated over time; the interactive attribute surfaces are combined with color-coding and contour lines to support absolute and relative height judgment as well as faster perception and better location of change. A design study and prototypical implementation of the visualization method is described in this contribution. Time-series simulation results of LANDIS-II, a commonly used modeling tool in forest ecology, as well as a temporal vegetation index dataset (NDVI) are visualized using 4-D statistical surfaces. Usability challenges are addressed based on explorative interviews with a small group of users. The method is not limited to ecological model output; it can be used to create three-dimensional (3-D) temporal animations of arbitrary time-series datasets where parameters are supplied in regular raster format.}, number={11}, journal={IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING}, author={Jenny, Helen and Liem, Johannes and Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2014}, month={Nov}, pages={4505–4511} }
 @article{clark_skowronski_renninger_scheller_2014, title={Climate change and fire management in the mid-Atlantic region}, volume={327}, ISSN={["1872-7042"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000340852800032&KeyUID=WOS:000340852800032}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2013.09.049}, abstractNote={In this review, we summarize the potential impacts of climate change on wildfire activity in the midAtlantic region, and then consider how the beneficial uses of prescribed fire could conflict with mitigation needs for climate change, focusing on patters of carbon (C) sequestration by forests in the region. We use a synthesis of field studies, eddy flux tower measurements, and simulation studies to evaluate how the use of prescribed fire affects short- and long-term forest C dynamics. Climate change may create weather conditions more conducive to wildfire activity, but successional changes in forest composition, altered gap dynamics, reduced understory and forest floor fuels, and fire suppression will likely continue to limit wildfire occurrence and severity throughout the region. Prescribed burning is the only major viable option that land managers have for reducing hazardous fuels in a cost-effective manner, or ensuring the regeneration and maintenance of fire-dependent species. Field measurements and model simulations indicate that consumption of fine fuels on the forest floor and understory vegetation during most prescribed burns is equivalent to <1–3 years of sequestered C, and depends on pre-burn fuel loading and burn intensity. Overstory tree mortality is typically low, and stands have somewhat reduced daytime C uptake during the next growing season following burns, but may also have reduced rates of ecosystem respiration. On an annual basis, net ecosystem productivity is negative the first year when consumption losses are included, but then positive in following years, and stands can reach C neutrality within <2–3 years. Field data and model simulations suggest that increases in prescribed burning in fire-prone areas would have little appreciable effect on long-term forest C dynamics in some fire-prone forest types. Large-scale conversion to young pine plantations for fiber and biofuels will potentially increase the risk of wildfires, as had occurred previously in the late-19th and early-20th centuries in the region. Published by Elsevier B.V.}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Clark, Kenneth L. and Skowronski, Nicholas and Renninger, Heidi and Scheller, Robert}, year={2014}, month={Sep}, pages={306–315} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_white_handler_ravenscroft_2014, title={Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000332686600002&KeyUID=WOS:000332686600002}, DOI={10.1890/es13-00370.1}, abstractNote={Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversity‐productivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests.}, number={2}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M. and White, Mark A. and Handler, Stephen D. and Ravenscroft, Catherine}, year={2014}, month={Feb} }
 @article{kretchun_scheller_lucash_clark_hom_van tuyl_2014, title={Difference in biomass of functional species groups w/gypsy moth defoliation.}, volume={1}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2015157005987345&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2015157005987345}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0102531.t001}, journal={Figshare}, author={Kretchun, Alec M and Scheller, Robert M and Lucash, Melissa S and Clark, Kenneth L and Hom, John and Van Tuyl, Steve}, year={2014} }
 @article{loudermilk_stanton_scheller_dilts_weisberg_skinner_yang_2014, title={Effectiveness of fuel treatments for mitigating wildfire risk and sequestering forest carbon: A case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin}, volume={323}, ISSN={["1872-7042"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000336704500013&KeyUID=WOS:000336704500013}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2014.03.011}, abstractNote={Fuel-reduction treatments are used extensively to reduce wildfire risk and restore forest diversity and function. In the near future, increasing regulation of carbon (C) emissions may force forest managers to balance the use of fuel treatments for reducing wildfire risk against an alternative goal of C sequestration. The objective of this study was to evaluate how long-term fuel treatments mitigate wildfires and affect forest C. For the Lake Tahoe Basin in the central Sierra Nevada, USA, fuel treatment efficiency was explored with a landscape-scale simulation model, LANDIS-II, using five fuel treatment scenarios and two (contemporary and potential future) fire regimes. Treatment scenarios included applying a combination of light (hand) and moderate (mechanical) forest thinning continuously through time and transitioning from these prescriptions to a more mid-seral thinning prescription, both on a 15 and 30 year rotation interval. In the last scenario, fuel treatments were isolated to around the lake shore (nearby urban settlement) to simulate a low investment alternative were future resources may be limited. Results indicated that the forest will remain a C sink regardless of treatment or fire regime simulated, due to the landscape legacy of historic logging. Achievement of a net C gain required decades with intensive treatment and depended on wildfire activity: Fuel treatments were more effective in a more active fire environment, where the interface between wildfires and treatment areas increased and caused net C gain earlier than as compared to our scenarios with less wildfire activity. Fuel treatments were most effective when continuously applied and strategically placed in high ignition areas. Treatment type and re-application interval were less influential at the landscape scale, but had notable effects on species dynamics within management units. Treatments created more diverse forest conditions by shifting dominance patterns to a more mixed conifer system, with a higher proportion of fire-tolerant species. We demonstrated that a small amount of wildfire on the landscape resulted in significant changes in the C pool, and that strategically placed fuel treatments substantially reduced wildfire risk, increased fire resiliency of the forest, and is beneficial for long-term C management. Implications for landscape management included consideration for prioritization of treatment areas and creating ideal re-entry schedules that meet logistic, safety, and conservation goals. In forests with a concentrated wildland urban interface, fuel treatments may be vital for ensuring human welfare and enhancing forest integrity in a fire-prone future.}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Loudermilk, E. Louise and Stanton, Alison and Scheller, Robert M. and Dilts, Thomas E. and Weisberg, Peter J. and Skinner, Carl and Yang, Jian}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={114–125} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_white_2014, title={Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region (USA)}, volume={44}, ISSN={["1208-6037"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000338998800003&KeyUID=WOS:000338998800003}, DOI={10.1139/cjfr-2013-0391}, abstractNote={ Northern Great Lakes forests represent an ecotone in the boreal–temperate transition zone and are expected to change dramatically with climate change. Managers are increasingly seeking adaptation strategies to manage these forests. We explored the efficacy of two alternative management scenarios compared with business-as-usual (BAU) management: expanding forest reserves meant to preserve forest identity and increase resistance, and modified silviculture meant to preserve forest function and increase adaptive capacity. Our study landscapes encompassed northeastern Minnesota and northern Lower Michigan, which are predicted to experience significant changes in a future climate and represent a gradient of latitude, forest type, and management. We used the LANDIS-II forest simulation model to simulate forest change under current climate, low emissions climate, and high emissions climate futures. Our results suggest that under a low emissions climate scenario, expanded reserves and modified silviculture strategies can be effective at increasing resistance by preserving forest composition, including legacy species (e.g., balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.)), and increasing adaptive capacity by maintaining or increasing aboveground biomass compared with BAU management. Under a high emissions climate scenario, the expanded reserve strategy was not effective at preserving legacy species; however, the modified silviculture strategy was effective at increasing aboveground biomass compared with BAU management. These results highlight alternative management options and limitations in the face of climate change. }, number={7}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH}, author={Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M. and White, Mark A.}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={700–710} }
 @article{sabatini_burton_scheller_amatangelo_mladenoff_2014, title={Functional diversity of ground-layer plant communities in old-growth and managed northern hardwood forests}, volume={17}, ISSN={["1654-109X"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000337725300004&KeyUID=WOS:000337725300004}, DOI={10.1111/avsc.12083}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={APPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE}, author={Sabatini, Francesco M. and Burton, Julia I. and Scheller, Robert M. and Amatangelo, Kathryn L. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={398–407} }
 @article{lucash_scheller_kretchun_clark_hom_2014, title={Impacts of fire and climate change on long-term nitrogen availability and forest productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens}, volume={44}, ISSN={["1208-6037"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000334849300002&KeyUID=WOS:000334849300002}, DOI={10.1139/cjfr-2013-0383}, abstractNote={ Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had little effect on mineral N, whereas climate change and fire together reduced mineral N by the end of the century. Though N initially limited forest productivity, mineral N was no longer limiting after 50 years. Our results suggest that mineral N is resilient to fire under our current climate but not under climate change. Also, predictions that do not consider N limitation may underestimate short-term but not long-term productivity responses to climate change. Together these results illustrate the importance of including N dynamics when simulating the effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly in fire-prone regions such as the New Jersey Pine Barrens. }, number={5}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Kretchun, Alec M. and Clark, Kenneth L. and Hom, John}, year={2014}, month={May}, pages={404–412} }
 @book{handler_m.j. duveneck_e. peters_k. wythers_p. butler_p.d. shannon_a. clark-eagle_r. corner_reich_2014, title={Michigan forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis}, volume={NRS-129}, journal={USFS General Technical Report}, author={Handler, S. and M.J. Duveneck, L. Iverson and E. Peters, R.M. Scheller and K. Wythers, L. Brandt and P. Butler, M. Janowiak and P.D. Shannon, C. Swanston and A. Clark-Eagle, J.G. Cohen and R. Corner and Reich, P.B.}, year={2014} }
 @book{handler_m.j. duveneck_e. peters_k. wythers_p. butler_p.d. shannon_r. kolka_b. palik_white_2014, title={Minnesota forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis}, volume={NRS-133}, journal={USFS General Technical Report}, author={Handler, S. and M.J. Duveneck, L. Iverson and E. Peters, R.M. Scheller and K. Wythers, L. Brandt and P. Butler, M. Janowiak and P.D. Shannon, C. Swanston and R. Kolka, C. McQuiston and B. Palik, C. Turner and White, M.}, year={2014} }
 @article{wang_mladenoff_forrester_blanco_scheller_peckham_keough_lucash_gower_2014, title={Multimodel simulations of forest harvesting effects on long-term productivity and CN cycling in aspen forests}, volume={24}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000341715800010&KeyUID=WOS:000341715800010}, DOI={10.1890/12-0888.1}, abstractNote={The effects of forest management on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics vary by harvest type and species. We simulated long‐term effects of bole‐only harvesting of aspen (Populus tremuloides) on stand productivity and interaction of CN cycles with a multiple model approach. Five models, Biome‐BGC, CENTURY, FORECAST, LANDIS‐II with Century‐based soil dynamics, and PnET‐CN, were run for 350 yr with seven harvesting events on nutrient‐poor, sandy soils representing northwestern Wisconsin, United States. Twenty CN state and flux variables were summarized from the models' outputs and statistically analyzed using ordination and variance analysis methods. The multiple models' averages suggest that bole‐only harvest would not significantly affect long‐term site productivity of aspen, though declines in soil organic matter and soil N were significant. Along with direct N removal by harvesting, extensive leaching after harvesting before canopy closure was another major cause of N depletion. These five models were notably different in output values of the 20 variables examined, although there were some similarities for certain variables. PnET‐CN produced unique results for every variable, and CENTURY showed fewer outliers and similar temporal patterns to the mean of all models. In general, we demonstrated that when there are no site‐specific data for fine‐scale calibration and evaluation of a single model, the multiple model approach may be a more robust approach for long‐term simulations. In addition, multimodeling may also improve the calibration and evaluation of an individual model.}, number={6}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Wang, Fugui and Mladenoff, David J. and Forrester, Jodi A. and Blanco, Juan A. and Scheller, Robert M. and Peckham, Scott D. and Keough, Cindy and Lucash, Melissa S. and Gower, Stith T.}, year={2014}, month={Sep}, pages={1374–1389} }
 @article{kretchun_scheller_lucash_clark_hom_van tuyl_2014, title={Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens}, volume={9}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000340900600008&KeyUID=WOS:000340900600008}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0102531}, abstractNote={Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.}, number={8}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Kretchun, Alec M. and Scheller, Robert M. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Clark, Kenneth L. and Hom, John and Van Tuyl, Steve}, year={2014}, month={Aug} }
 @article{kretchun_scheller_lucash_clark_hom_van tuyl_2014, title={Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens}, volume={1}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2015157005987344&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2015157005987344}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0102531.s001}, journal={Figshare}, author={Kretchun, Alec M and Scheller, Robert M and Lucash, Melissa S and Clark, Kenneth L and Hom, John and Van Tuyl, Steve}, year={2014} }
 @article{loudermilk_scheller_weisberg_yang_dilts_karam_skinner_2013, title={Carbon dynamics in the future forest: the importance of long-term successional legacy and climate-fire interactions}, volume={19}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000325567100023&KeyUID=WOS:000325567100023}, DOI={10.1111/gcb.12310}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={11}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Loudermilk, E. Louise and Scheller, Robert M. and Weisberg, Peter J. and Yang, Jian and Dilts, Thomas E. and Karam, Sarah L. and Skinner, Carl}, year={2013}, month={Nov}, pages={3502–3515} }
 @article{karam_weisberg_scheller_johnson_miller_2013, title={Development and evaluation of a nutrient cycling extension for the LANDIS-II landscape simulation model}, volume={250}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000315246100005&KeyUID=WOS:000315246100005}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.10.016}, abstractNote={Long-term nutrient cycling dynamics are the result of interactions between forest succession, disturbance, nutrient cycling, and other forest processes. We developed NuCycling-Succession, a simple nutrient cycling and succession extension for the LANDIS-II landscape model of forest dynamics, to examine the interactions between these forest processes in order to develop more realistic predictions of forest response to management practices and global change. NuCycling-Succession models carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus nutrient fluxes and masses associated with the living biomass, dead biomass, soil organic matter, soil mineral N and P, charcoal, and bedrock nutrient pools. It includes direct effects of disturbance events on nutrient cycling as well as indirect effects mediated through changes in forest composition and structure. NuCycling-Succession represents the continuum of decomposition and associated changes in chemistry using annual cohorts of leaf and fine root litter. This formulation includes the interaction of decomposition dynamics with disturbances that affect the forest floor, such as fire. Evaluation of model results relative to field data and results reported in the literature indicate the model adequately represents nutrient pools and fluxes. We present a case study of the effects of changing fire and biomass harvesting regimes on nutrient cycling in the Lake Tahoe Basin. Model results suggest that fire exclusion has resulted in substantially increased mass of nutrient pools. The NuCycling-Succession extension provides a useful simulation framework for exploring how global change factors (climate change, altered disturbance regimes) may influence nutrient cycling processes and nutrient budgets in forested ecosystems.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Karam, Sarah L. and Weisberg, Peter J. and Scheller, Robert M. and Johnson, Dale W. and Miller, W. Wally}, year={2013}, month={Feb}, pages={45–57} }
 @inbook{scheller_2013, title={Landscape modeling}, volume={4}, DOI={10.1016/b978-0-12-384719-5.00387-7}, abstractNote={Landscape and regional models have become a central component of many efforts to conserve or manage biodiversity. Landscape models allow scientists and managers to extrapolate their knowledge in space and time and to therefore better understand how long-term and large-scale changes may affect biodiversity. Landscape models account for the geographic context of populations and management and the principal drivers of change. However, they vary widely in their complexity, flexibility, and spatial, temporal, and taxonomic resolutions. In this article the author outlines the basic premises of landscape models; describes their utility and limitations; and summarizes the basic forms of landscape models.}, booktitle={Encyclopedia of Biodiversity, 2nd edition}, publisher={Waltham, MA: Academic Press}, author={Scheller, Robert}, year={2013}, pages={531–538} }
 @article{jenny_liem_lucash_scheller_ieee_2013, title={Visualization of Alternative Future Scenarios for Forest Ecosystems Using Animated Statistical Surfaces}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000342772000102&KeyUID=WOS:000342772000102}, journal={2013 Second International Conference on Agro-Geoinformatics (Agro-Geoinformatics)}, author={Jenny, H. and Liem, J. and Lucash, M. S. and Scheller, R. M. and IEEE}, year={2013}, pages={510–514} }
 @inproceedings{jenny_liem_lucash_scheller_2013, title={Visualization of alternative future scenarios for forest ecosystems using animated statistical surfaces}, DOI={10.1109/argo-geoinformatics.2013.6621974}, abstractNote={Rising uncertainties associated with climate change make it important to include forest ecosystem simulations into forest management planning. The output of such models can be visualized in two-dimensional time-series animation, which is often too complex to provide a spatio-temporal overview. This contribution describes a novel method, called animated three-dimensional statistical surfaces, that aims at improving the perception of change in animated time-series. The method visualizes attribute values as surfaces, which are interpolated and animated over time; the attribute surfaces are combined with color-coding and contour lines to support absolute and relative height judgment as well as faster perception and better location of change. A design study and prototypical implementation of the visualization method is described in this contribution. The method is not limited to ecological model output; it can be used to create three-dimensional animations of arbitrary time-series where parameters are supplied in regular raster format.}, booktitle={2013 second international conference on agro-geoinformatics (agro-geoinformatics)}, author={Jenny, H. and Liem, J. and Lucash, M. S. and Scheller, R. M.}, year={2013}, pages={510–514} }
 @article{dymond_r.m. scheller_beukema_2012, title={A new model for simulating climate change and carbon dynamics in forested landscapes}, volume={13}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Ecosystems and Management}, author={Dymond, C.C. and R.M. Scheller and Beukema, S.}, year={2012}, pages={1–2} }
 @article{seidl_rammer_scheller_spies_2012, title={An individual-based process model to simulate landscape-scale forest ecosystem dynamics}, volume={231}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000303081300009&KeyUID=WOS:000303081300009}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.015}, abstractNote={Forest ecosystem dynamics emerges from nonlinear interactions between adaptive biotic agents (i.e., individual trees) and their relationship with a spatially and temporally heterogeneous abiotic environment. Understanding and predicting the dynamics resulting from these complex interactions is crucial for the sustainable stewardship of ecosystems, particularly in the context of rapidly changing environmental conditions. Here we present iLand (the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model), a novel approach to simulating forest dynamics as an emergent property of environmental drivers, ecosystem processes and dynamic interactions across scales. Our specific objectives were (i) to describe the model, in particular its novel approach to simulate spatially explicit individual-tree competition for resources over large scales within a process-based framework of physiological resource use, and (ii) to present a suite of evaluation experiments assessing iLands ability to simulate tree growth and mortality for a wide range of forest ecosystems. Adopting an approach rooted in ecological field theory, iLand calculates a continuous field of light availability over the landscape, with every tree represented by a mechanistically derived, size- and species-dependent pattern of light interference. Within a hierarchical multi-scale framework productivity is derived at stand-level by means of a light-use efficiency approach, and downscaled to individuals via local light availability. Allocation (based on allometric ratios) and mortality (resulting from carbon starvation) are modeled at the individual-tree level, accounting for adaptive behavior of trees in response to their environment. To evaluate the model we conducted simulations over the extended environmental gradient of a longitudinal transect in Oregon, USA, and successfully compared results against independently observed productivity estimates (63.4% of variation explained) and mortality patterns in even-aged stands. This transect experiment was furthermore replicated for a different set of species and ecosystems in the Austrian Alps, documenting the robustness and generality of our approach. Model performance was also successfully evaluated for structurally and compositionally complex old-growth forests in the western Cascades of Oregon. Finally, the ability of our approach to address forest ecosystem dynamics at landscape scales was demonstrated by a computational scaling experiment. In simulating the emergence of ecosystem patterns and dynamics as a result of complex process interactions across scales our approach has the potential to contribute crucial capacities to understanding and fostering forest ecosystem resilience under changing climatic conditions.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Seidl, Rupert and Rammer, Werner and Scheller, Robert M. and Spies, Thomas A.}, year={2012}, month={Apr}, pages={87–100} }
 @article{scheller_kretchun_van tuyl_clark_lucash_hom_2012, title={Divergent carbon dynamics under climate change in forests with diverse soils, tree species, and land use histories}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000327304100018&KeyUID=WOS:000327304100018}, DOI={10.1890/es12-00241.1}, abstractNote={Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over‐utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS‐II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer‐term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de‐stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration.}, number={11}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Kretchun, Alec M. and Van Tuyl, Steve and Clark, Kenneth L. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Hom, John}, year={2012}, month={Nov} }
 @article{xu_gertner_scheller_2012, title={Importance of colonization and competition in forest landscape response to global climatic change}, volume={110}, ISSN={["1573-1480"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000297910300005&KeyUID=WOS:000297910300005}, DOI={10.1007/s10584-011-0098-5}, abstractNote={The tree species composition of a forested landscape may respond to climate change through two primary successional mechanisms: (1) colonization of suitable habitats and (2) competitive dynamics of established species. In this study, we assessed the relative importance of competition and colonization in forest landscape response (as measured by the forest type composition change) to global climatic change. Specifically, we simulated shifts in forest composition within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area of northern Minnesota during the period 2000–2400 AD. We coupled a forest ecosystem process model, PnET-II, and a spatially dynamic forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate landscape change. The relative ability of 13 tree species to colonize suitable habitat was represented by the probability of establishment or recruitment. The relative competitive ability was represented by the aboveground net primary production. Both competitive and colonization abilities changed over time in response to climatic change. Our results showed that, given only moderate-frequent windthrow (rotation period = 500 years) and fire disturbances (rotation period = 300 years), competition is relatively more important for the short-term (<100 years) compositional response to climatic change. For longer-term forest landscape response (>100 years), colonization became relatively more important. However, if more frequent fire disturbances were simulated, then colonization is the dominant process from the beginning of the simulations. Our results suggest that the disturbance regime will affect the relative strengths of successional drivers, the understanding of which is critical for future prediction of forest landscape response to global climatic change.}, number={1-2}, journal={CLIMATIC CHANGE}, author={Xu, Chonggang and Gertner, George Z. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2012}, month={Jan}, pages={53–83} }
 @article{scheller_van tuyl_clark_hom_la puma_2011, title={Carbon Sequestration in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Under Different Scenarios of Fire Management}, volume={14}, ISSN={["1435-0629"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000294683300010&KeyUID=WOS:000294683300010}, DOI={10.1007/s10021-011-9462-6}, abstractNote={The New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB) is the largest forested area along the northeastern coast of the United States. The NJPB are dominated by pine (Pinus spp.) and oak (Quercus spp.) stands that are fragmented and subject to frequent disturbance and forest management. Over long time periods (>50 years), the balance between oak and pine dominance is determined by fire frequency. As a consequence, the ability of the NJPB to sequester carbon may be contingent upon management activities as well as patterns of historic land use. We simulated 100 years of carbon change using three scenarios: (1) contemporary management as reflected in the recent (1991–2006) fire records, (2) an increase in the fire ignitions within the wildland urban interface areas of the NJPB reflecting increased prescribed fires, and (3) a longer response time to wildfires, reflecting a more liberal burning policy by the New Jersey Forest Fire Service. We used the LANDIS-II model coupled with CENTURY and the Dynamic Fire and Dynamic Biomass Fuels extensions to estimate forest carbon sequestration based on these three scenarios. Calibration and validation via comparison to monthly flux tower data indicated that the model reasonably captured the timing and magnitude of net ecosystem exchange in the absence of Gypsy moth defoliation (r 2 = 0.89). Under all scenarios, our simulations suggest that forests of the NJPB will continue to accumulate carbon over the next 100 years under current climatic conditions. Although aboveground net primary productivity, live carbon, and detrital carbon were roughly constant or increased only modestly, soil organic carbon continued to increase through time for all forest types except the highly xeric pine plains. Our simulated changes in management reflected only minor alterations to the fire regime and thus management may have only minor effects on total forest carbon budgets in the immediate future particularly when compared to recovery from historic disturbance patterns.}, number={6}, journal={ECOSYSTEMS}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Van Tuyl, Steve and Clark, Kenneth L. and Hom, John and La Puma, Inga}, year={2011}, month={Sep}, pages={987–1004} }
 @article{gustafson_shvidenko_scheller_2011, title={Effectiveness of forest management strategies to mitigate effects of global change in south-central Siberia}, volume={41}, ISSN={["1208-6037"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000295185600004&KeyUID=WOS:000295185600004}, DOI={10.1139/x11-065}, abstractNote={ We investigated questions about the ability of broad silvicultural strategies to achieve multiple objectives (reduce disturbance losses, maintain the abundance of preferred species, mitigate fragmentation and loss of age-class diversity, and sequester aboveground carbon) under future climate conditions in Siberia. We conducted a factorial experiment using the LANDIS-II landscape disturbance and succession model. Treatments included varying the size and amount of areas cut and the cutting method (selective or clearcut). Simultaneously, the model simulated natural disturbances (fire, wind, insect outbreaks) and forest succession under projected future climate conditions as predicted by an ensemble of global circulation models. The cutting method and cutting rate treatments generally had a large effect on species and age-class composition, residual living biomass, and susceptibility to disturbance, whereas cutblock size had no effect. Cutblock size affected only measures of fragmentation, but cutting method and cutting rate often had an even greater effect. Based on the results, we simulated a “recommended” strategy and compared it with the current forest management practice. The recommended strategy resulted in greater forest biomass, increased abundance of favored species, and reduced fragmentation, but it did not significantly reduce losses by disturbance. No single strategy appears able to achieve all possible forest management objectives. }, number={7}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH}, author={Gustafson, Eric J. and Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2011}, month={Jul}, pages={1405–1421} }
 @article{syphard_scheller_ward_spencer_strittholt_2011, title={Simulating landscape-scale effects of fuels treatments in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1448-5516"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000290222200004&KeyUID=WOS:000290222200004}, DOI={10.1071/wf09125}, abstractNote={In many coniferous forests of the western United States, wildland fuel accumulation and projected climate conditions increase the likelihood that fires will become larger and more intense. Fuels treatments and prescribed fire are widely recommended, but there is uncertainty regarding their ability to reduce the severity of subsequent fires at a landscape scale. Our objective was to investigate the interactions among landscape-scale fire regimes, fuels treatments and fire weather in the southern Sierra Nevada, California. We used a spatially dynamic model of wildfire, succession and fuels management to simulate long-term (50 years), broad-scale (across 2.2 × 106 ha) effects of fuels treatments. We simulated thin-from-below treatments followed by prescribed fire under current weather conditions and under more severe weather. Simulated fuels management minimised the mortality of large, old trees, maintained total landscape plant biomass and extended fire rotation, but effects varied based on elevation, type of treatment and fire regime. The simulated area treated had a greater effect than treatment intensity, and effects were strongest where more fires intersected treatments and when simulated weather conditions were more severe. In conclusion, fuels treatments in conifer forests potentially minimise the ecological effects of high-severity fire at a landscape scale provided that 8% of the landscape is treated every 5 years, especially if future fire weather conditions are more severe than those in recent years.}, number={3}, journal={INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE}, author={Syphard, Alexandra D. and Scheller, Robert M. and Ward, Brendan C. and Spencer, Wayne D. and Strittholt, James R.}, year={2011}, pages={364–383} }
 @article{scheller_hua_bolstad_birdsey_mladenoff_2011, title={The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in Lake States Mesic Forests}, volume={222}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000284968300013&KeyUID=WOS:000284968300013}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.09.009}, abstractNote={Total forest carbon (C) storage is determined by succession, disturbances, climate, and the edaphic properties of a site or region. Forest harvesting substantially affects C dynamics; these effects may be amplified if forest harvesting is intensified to provide biofuel feedstock. We tested the effects of harvest intensity on landscape C using a simulation modeling approach that included C dynamics, multiple disturbances, and successional changes in composition. We developed a new extension for the LANDIS-II forest landscape disturbance and succession model that incorporates belowground soil C dynamics derived from the CENTURY soil model. The extension was parameterized and calibrated using data from an experimental forest in northeastern Wisconsin, USA. We simulated a 9800 ha forested landscape over 400 years with wind disturbance combined with no harvesting, harvesting with residual slash left on site ('standard harvest'), and whole-tree harvesting. We also simulated landscapes without wind disturbance and without eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) to examine the effects of detrital quantity and quality on C dynamics. We estimated changes in live C, detrital C, soil organic C, total C, and forest composition. Overall, the simulations without harvesting had substantially greater total C and continued to sequester C. Standard harvest simulations had more C than the whole tree harvest simulations. Under both harvest regimes, C accrual was not evident after 150 years. Without hemlock, SOC was reduced due to a decline in detritus and a shift in detrital chemistry. In conclusion, if the intensity of harvesting increases we can expect a corresponding reduction in potential C storage. Compositional changes due to historic circumstances (loss of hemlock) may also affect forest C although to a lesser degree than harvesting. The modeling approach presented enabled us to consider multiple, interacting drivers of landscape change and the subsequent changes in forest C.}, number={1}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Hua, Dong and Bolstad, Paul V. and Birdsey, Richard A. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2011}, month={Jan}, pages={144–153} }
 @article{thompson_foster_scheller_kittredge_2011, title={The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA}, volume={21}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000296139200007&KeyUID=WOS:000296139200007}, DOI={10.1890/10-2383.1}, abstractNote={Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010-2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create "probability-of-conversion" and "probability-of-harvest" zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naive assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses.}, number={7}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Thompson, Jonathan R. and Foster, David R. and Scheller, Robert and Kittredge, David}, year={2011}, month={Oct}, pages={2425–2444} }
 @book{gustafson_sturtevant_shvidenko_scheller_li_lafortezza_chen_2011, title={Using Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models to Support Forest Management}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV201100362715&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV201100362715}, journal={Landscape Ecology in Forest Management and Conservation: Challenges and Solutions for Global Change}, author={Gustafson, Eric J. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. and Scheller, Robert M. and Li, C and Lafortezza, R and Chen, J}, year={2011}, pages={99–118} }
 @article{gustafson_sturtevant_shvidenko_scheller_li_lafortezza_chen_2011, title={Using Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models to Support Forest Management}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000288968400005&KeyUID=WOS:000288968400005}, journal={Landscape Ecology in Forest Management and Conservation: Challenges and Solutions For Global Change}, author={Gustafson, Eric J. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. and Scheller, Robert M. and Li, C and Lafortezza, R and Chen, J}, year={2011}, pages={99–118} }
 @inbook{gustafson_sturtevant_shvidenko_scheller_2011, title={Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management}, DOI={10.1007/978-3-642-12754-0_5}, booktitle={Landscape ecology in forest management and conservation}, publisher={Beijing: Higher Education Press; Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag}, author={Gustafson, E.J. and Sturtevant, B.R. and Shvidenko, A.Z. and Scheller, R.M.}, editor={Chao Li, Raffaele Lafortezza and Chen, JiquanEditors}, year={2011}, pages={99–118} }
 @article{spencer_rustigian-romsos_strittholt_scheller_zielinski_truex_2011, title={Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population}, volume={144}, ISSN={["1873-2917"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000287897100019&KeyUID=WOS:000287897100019}, DOI={10.1016/j.biocon.2010.10.027}, abstractNote={An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population's status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a fisher probability of occurrence model. The fisher occurrence model was selected from a family of generalized additive models (GAM) generated using numerous environmental variables and fisher detection–nondetection data collected at 228 survey arrays sampled repeatedly during 2002–2006. The selected GAM accounted for 69% of the Akaike weight using total above-ground biomass of trees, latitude-adjusted elevation, and annual precipitation averaged over a 5 km2 moving window. We estimated equilibrium population sizes (or carrying capacities) within currently occupied areas, and identified likely population source, sink, and expansion areas, by simulating population processes for 20 years using different demographic rates, dispersal distances, and territory sizes. The population model assumed that demographic parameters of fishers scale in proportion to habitat quality as indexed by the calculated probability of fisher occurrence. Based on the most defensible range of parameter values, we estimate fisher carrying capacity at ∼125–250 adults in currently occupied areas. Population expansion into potential habitat in and north of Yosemite National Park has potential to increase population size, but this potential for expansion is predicted to be highly sensitive to mortality rates, which may be elevated in the northern portion of the occupied range by human influences, including roadkill and diseases carried by domestic cats and dogs.}, number={2}, journal={BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION}, author={Spencer, Wayne and Rustigian-Romsos, Heather and Strittholt, James and Scheller, Robert and Zielinski, William and Truex, Richard}, year={2011}, month={Feb}, pages={788–803} }
 @article{scheller_spencer_rustigian-romsos_syphard_ward_strittholt_2011, title={Using stochastic simulation to evaluate competing risks of wildfires and fuels management on an isolated forest carnivore}, volume={26}, ISSN={["0921-2973"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000297136900015&KeyUID=WOS:000297136900015}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-011-9663-6}, number={10}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Spencer, Wayne D. and Rustigian-Romsos, Heather and Syphard, Alexandra D. and Ward, Brendan C. and Strittholt, James R.}, year={2011}, month={Dec}, pages={1491–1504} }
 @article{xu_guneralp_gertner_scheller_2010, title={Elasticity and loop analyses: tools for understanding forest landscape response to climatic change in spatial dynamic models}, volume={25}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000278526000004&KeyUID=WOS:000278526000004}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-010-9464-3}, number={6}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Xu, Chonggang and Guneralp, Burak and Gertner, George Z. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2010}, month={Jul}, pages={855–871} }
 @misc{foster_burton_forrester_liu_muss_sabatini_scheller_mladenoff_2010, title={Evidence for a recent increase in forest growth is questionable}, volume={107}, ISSN={["0027-8424"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000278054700081&KeyUID=WOS:000278054700081}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1002725107}, abstractNote={In a recent article, McMahon et al. (1) examined forest-plot biomass accumulation across a range of stands in the mid-Atlantic United States and suggest that climate change and trends in atmospheric CO2 explain an increase in forest growth. To show this increase, they fit a simple model to live above-ground forest biomass (AGB) as a function of stand age, and then propose that the derivative of this model is the expected rate of ensemble biomass change (). They conclude that biomass changes within census plots that exceed the ensemble expectation constitute recent increases in growth rates.}, number={21}, journal={PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA}, author={Foster, Jane R. and Burton, Julia I. and Forrester, Jodi A. and Liu, Feng and Muss, Jordan D. and Sabatini, Francesco M. and Scheller, Robert M. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2010}, month={May}, pages={E86–E87} }
 @article{ravenscroft_scheller_mladenoff_white_2010, title={Forest restoration in a mixed-ownership landscape under climate change}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000276635600003&KeyUID=WOS:000276635600003}, DOI={10.1890/08-1698.1}, abstractNote={The extent to which current landscapes deviate from the historical range of natural variability (RNV) is a common means of defining and ranking regional conservation targets. However, climate‐induced shifts in forest composition may render obsolete restoration strategies and conservation targets based on historic climate conditions and disturbance regimes. We used a spatially explicit forest ecosystem model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate the interaction of climate change and forest management in northeastern Minnesota, USA. We assessed the relevance of restoration strategies and conservation targets based on the RNV in the context of future climate change. Three climate scenarios (no climate change, low emissions, and high emissions) were simulated with three forest management scenarios: no harvest, current management, and a restoration‐based approach where harvest activity mimicked the frequency, severity, and size distribution of historic natural disturbance regimes. Under climate change there was a trend toward homogenization of forest conditions due to the widespread expansion of systems dominated by maple (Acer spp.). White spruce (Picea glauca), balsam fir (Abies balsamea), and paper birch (Betula papyrifera) were extirpated from the landscape irrespective of management activity; additional losses of black spruce (P. mariana), red pine (Pinus resinosa), and jack pine (P. banksiana) were projected in the high‐emissions scenario. In the restoration management scenario, retention and conversion to white pine (P. strobus) restricted maple expansion. But, widespread forest loss in the restoration scenario under high‐emissions projections illustrates the potential pitfalls of implementing an RNV management approach in a system that is not compositionally similar to the historic reference condition. Given the uncertainty associated with climate change, ensuring a diversity of species and conditions within forested landscapes may be the most effective means of ensuring the future resistance of ecosystems to climate‐induced declines in productivity.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Ravenscroft, Catherine and Scheller, Robert M. and Mladenoff, David J. and White, Mark A.}, year={2010}, month={Mar}, pages={327–346} }
 @misc{scheller_sturtevant_gustafson_ward_mladenoff_2010, title={Increasing the reliability of ecological models using modern software engineering techniques}, volume={8}, ISSN={["1540-9309"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000278515600014&KeyUID=WOS:000278515600014}, DOI={10.1890/080141}, abstractNote={Modern software development techniques are largely unknown to ecologists. Typically, ecological models and other software tools are developed for limited research purposes, and additional capabilities are added later, usually in an ad hoc manner. Modern software engineering techniques can substantially increase scientific rigor and confidence in ecological models and tools. These techniques have the potential to transform how ecological software is conceived and developed, improve precision, reduce errors, and increase scientific credibility. We describe our re‐engineering of the forest landscape model LANDIS (LANdscape DIsturbance and Succession) to illustrate the advantages of using common software engineering practices.}, number={5}, journal={FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Ward, Brendan C. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2010}, month={Jun}, pages={253–260} }
 @article{scheller_e.j. gustafson_b.c. ward_d.j._mladenoff_2010, title={Increasing the research and management value of ecological models using modern software engineering techniques}, volume={8}, journal={Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment}, author={Scheller, R.M. and E.J. Gustafson, B.R. Sturtevant and B.C. Ward and D.J. and Mladenoff}, year={2010}, pages={253–260} }
 @article{gustafson_shvidenko_sturtevant_scheller_2010, title={Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000277077400008&KeyUID=WOS:000277077400008}, DOI={10.1890/08-1693.1}, abstractNote={Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will, in turn, affect the ability of these forests to retain carbon and maintain biodiversity. To predict future states of the boreal forest reliably, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes (succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind, and insects), and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber harvest). We used a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS‐II) to study the relative effects of climate change, timber harvesting, and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon), and landscape pattern in south‐central Siberia. We found that most response variables were more strongly influenced by timber harvest and insect outbreaks than by the direct effects of climate change. Direct climate effects generally increased tree productivity and modified probability of establishment, but indirect effects on the fire regime generally counteracted the direct effects of climate on forest composition. Harvest and insects significantly changed forest composition, reduced living aboveground biomass, and increased forest fragmentation. We concluded that: (1) Global change is likely to significantly change forest composition of south‐central Siberian landscapes, with some changes taking ecosystems outside the historic range of variability. (2) The direct effects of climate change in the study area are not as significant as the exploitation of virgin forest by timber harvest and the potential increased outbreaks of the Siberian silk moth. (3) Novel disturbance by timber harvest and insect outbreaks may greatly reduce the aboveground living biomass of Siberian forests and may significantly alter ecosystem dynamics and wildlife populations by increasing forest fragmentation.}, number={3}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Gustafson, Eric J. and Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2010}, month={Apr}, pages={700–715} }
 @article{sturtevant_scheller_miranda_shinneman_syphard_2009, title={Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: A process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II}, volume={220}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000272371300014&KeyUID=WOS:000272371300014}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.07.030}, abstractNote={Fire regimes result from reciprocal interactions between vegetation and fire that may be further affected by other disturbances, including climate, landform, and terrain. In this paper, we describe fire and fuel extensions for the forest landscape simulation model, LANDIS-II, that allow dynamic interactions among fire, vegetation, climate, and landscape structure, and incorporate realistic fire characteristics (shapes, distributions, and effects) that can vary within and between fire events. We demonstrate the capabilities of the new extensions using two case study examples with very different ecosystem characteristics: a boreal forest system from central Labrador, Canada, and a mixed conifer system from the Sierra Nevada Mountains (California, USA). In Labrador, comparison between the more complex dynamic fire extension and a classic fire simulator based on a simple fire size distribution showed little difference in terms of mean fire rotation and potential severity, but cumulative burn patterns created by the dynamic fire extension were more heterogeneous due to feedback between fuel types and fire behavior. Simulations in the Sierra Nevada indicated that burn patterns were responsive to topographic features, fuel types, and an extreme weather scenario, although the magnitude of responses depended on elevation. In both study areas, simulated fire size and resulting fire rotation intervals were moderately sensitive to parameters controlling the curvilinear response between fire spread and weather, as well as to the assumptions underlying the correlation between weather conditions and fire duration. Potential fire severity was more variable within the Sierra Nevada landscape and also was more sensitive to the correlation between weather conditions and fire duration. The fire modeling approach described here should be applicable to questions related to climate change and disturbance interactions, particularly within locations characterized by steep topography, where temporally or spatially dynamic vegetation significantly influences spread rates, where fire severity is variable, and where multiple disturbance types of varying severities are common.}, number={23}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Sturtevant, Brian R. and Scheller, Robert M. and Miranda, Brian R. and Shinneman, Douglas and Syphard, Alexandra}, year={2009}, month={Dec}, pages={3380–3393} }
 @article{sturtevant_miranda_yang_he_gustafson_scheller_2009, title={Studying Fire Mitigation Strategies in Multi-Ownership Landscapes: Balancing the Management of Fire-Dependent Ecosystems and Fire Risk}, volume={12}, ISSN={["1432-9840"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000264547300008&KeyUID=WOS:000264547300008}, DOI={10.1007/s10021-009-9234-8}, number={3}, journal={ECOSYSTEMS}, author={Sturtevant, Brian R. and Miranda, Brian R. and Yang, Jian and He, Hong S. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2009}, month={Apr}, pages={445–461} }
 @article{xu_gertner_scheller_2009, title={Uncertainties in the response of a forest landscape to global climatic change}, volume={15}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000262347600009&KeyUID=WOS:000262347600009}, DOI={10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01705.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Xu, Chonggang and Gertner, George Z. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2009}, month={Jan}, pages={116–131} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2008, title={Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA}, volume={36}, ISSN={["0936-577X"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000257842800002&KeyUID=WOS:000257842800002}, DOI={10.3354/cr00745}, abstractNote={The reproductive success, growth, and mortality rates of tree species in the northern United States will be differentially affected by projected climate change over the next century. As a consequence, the spatial distributions of tree species will expand or contract at differential rates. In addition, human fragmentation of the landscape may limit effective seed dispersal, and inter-specific competition may limit the migration of climate-adapted species, restraining the rate of tree species migration. If the northward migration of tree species adapted to a warmer climate lags behind the rate of climatic change, overall growth rates and aboveground biomass of northern forests may be significantly reduced relative to their potential. We used a spatially interactive forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, that simulates tree species establishment, growth, mortality, succession, and dis- turbance. We simulated multiple scenarios of disturbance and climatic change across a ~15 000 km 2 forested landscape in northwestern Wisconsin, USA. These simulations were used to estimate changes in aboveground live biomass and the spatial distribution of 22 tree species. We observed a reduction in aboveground live biomass relative to the potential biomass for the combined soils and changing climate. We regressed the reduction of potential aboveground biomass against a measure of fragmentation, the initial biomass for 22 tree species, and soil water holding capacity calculated at 3 spatial resolutions. We also regressed the range expansion of 3 individual tree species that are expected to expand their distributions against the same variables. Species migration and range expansion were negatively correlated with fragmentation both in total and for 2 of the 3 species examined in detail. The initial abundances of some tree species were also significant predictors of species migration and range expansion and indicate significant competition between existing species assemblages and more southerly species that are expected to migrate north. In conclusion, the above- ground biomass of northern forests may be limited by interactions among climate change, interspe- cific competition, and fragmentation.}, number={3}, journal={CLIMATE RESEARCH}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2008}, month={Jun}, pages={191–202} }
 @article{scheller_van tuyl_clark_hayden_hom_mladenoff_2008, title={Simulation of forest change in the New Jersey Pine Barrens under current and pre-colonial conditions}, volume={255}, ISSN={["0378-1127"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000254597700014&KeyUID=WOS:000254597700014}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2007.11.025}, abstractNote={Changes in land use patterns in and around forests, including rural development and road building, have occurred throughout the United States and are accelerating in many areas. As a result, there have been significant departures from ‘natural’ or pre-settlement disturbance regimes. Altered disturbance regimes can shift composition and dominance in tree species communities, potentially affecting ecosystem functioning. We examined the potential consequences of various forest management practices and forest fragmentation on tree community composition. Both forest management and fragmentation are changing as land use changes within the New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB). The NJPB has and is continuing to experience rapid rural development and urbanization that are altering the types, frequency, and intensity of forest management, and are increasing forest fragmentation. In the NJPB, the size and frequency of wildfires have declined and the use of prescribed fires is limited to a small portion of the landscape. In addition, the expansion of roads and decline in total forested area – two common measures of fragmentation – may impede the ability of tree species to colonize available habitat. To assess the consequences of fire management and fragmentation on fire regimes and forest communities, we simulated forest landscape change using LANDIS-II, a stochastic, spatially dynamic forest succession model that simulates the growth of tree species cohorts (defined by species and age), dispersal and colonization, and mortality. Simulated fires are sensitive to fuel loads and fuel load continuity. We constructed scenarios to mimic the pre-colonial contiguous landscape with an estimated pre-colonial fire regime; scenarios of the current day landscape with current and potential fire management; and scenarios designed to highlight the effects of fragmentation. Our simulations indicate that relative to the pre-colonial landscape and fire regime, the landscape is changing from a pine-dominated to an oak-dominated state. However, within areas where prescribed burning remains a viable management option, a doubling of the mean annual area that is managed with prescribed burns may substantially push the system back towards pre-colonial conditions, although oaks will continue to retain a higher than pre-colonial dominance. Our results also indicate that aside from a reduction in the potential fire sizes, fragmentation does not appear to substantially alter forest successional dynamics. In summary, our simulations estimate the departure from pre-colonial conditions and indicate the potential for a limited restoration of these conditions.}, number={5-6}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Van Tuyl, Steve and Clark, Kenneth and Hayden, Nicholas G. and Hom, John and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2008}, month={Apr}, pages={1489–1500} }
 @inbook{scheller_mladenoff_2008, title={The potential futures of Wisconsin forested landscapes}, DOI={10.7208/chicago/9780226871745.003.0031}, abstractNote={Abstract Chapters 5–7 showed that Wisconsin's forests have changed in many different ways, reflecting shifts in climate, variable soils, the migration of species following glaciation, natural disturbances, past and current logging, fragmentation from roads, and continuing shifts in human land use. Forest ecologists, historians, and sociologists use data from many sources to infer how Great Lakes states forests have changed and how these changes reflect broader geographic and historical contexts. In this era of global environmental change, can we use the past to anticipate and understand the future? Or will future changes be unique and unpredictable? The chapter grapples with these questions as it tries to imagine Wisconsin's forests 100 years from now, exploring the consequences of factors like population growth and climate change.}, booktitle={The vanishing present: Ecological change in Wisconsin}, publisher={Chicago : University of Chicago Press}, author={Scheller, Robert and Mladenoff, D.J.}, editor={Waller, D.M. and T.P. RooneyEditors}, year={2008} }
 @misc{scheller_mladenoff_2007, title={An ecological classification of forest landscape simulation models: tools and strategies for understanding broad-scale forested ecosystems}, volume={22}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000245296600002&KeyUID=WOS:000245296600002}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-006-9048-4}, number={4}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2007}, month={Apr}, pages={491–505} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2007, title={An ecological classification of forest landscape simulation models: tools and strategies for understanding broad-scale forested ecosystems}, volume={22}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200700313685&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200700313685}, number={4}, journal={Landscape Ecology}, author={SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and MLADENOFF, DAVID J.}, year={2007}, pages={491–505} }
 @article{scheller_domingo_sturtevant_williams_rudy_gustafson_mladenoff_2007, title={Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution}, volume={201}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000244598300016&KeyUID=WOS:000244598300016}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.10.009}, abstractNote={We introduce LANDIS-II, a landscape model designed to simulate forest succession and disturbances. LANDIS-II builds upon and preserves the functionality of previous LANDIS forest landscape simulation models. LANDIS-II is distinguished by the inclusion of variable time steps for different ecological processes; our use of a rigorous development and testing process used by software engineers; and an emphasis on collaborative features including a flexible, open architecture. We detail the variable time step logic and provide an overview of the system architecture. Finally, we demonstrate model behavior and sensitivity to variable time steps through application to a large boreal forest landscape. We simulated pre-industrial forest fire regimes in order to establish base-line conditions for future management. Differing model time steps substantially altered our estimates of pre-industrial forest conditions. Where disturbance frequency is relatively high or successional processes long, the variable time steps may be a critical element for successful forest landscape modeling.}, number={3-4}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Domingo, James B. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Williams, Jeremy S. and Rudy, Arnold and Gustafson, Eric J. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2007}, month={Mar}, pages={409–419} }
 @article{ravenscroft_scheller_white_mladenoff_2007, title={Planning and simulating forest landscape restoration in a mixed-ownership landscape under climate change}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200900130117&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200900130117}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={RAVENSCROFT, CATHERINE and SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and WHITE, MARK A. and MLADENOFF, DAVID}, year={2007} }
 @article{xu_gertner_scheller_2007, title={Potential effects of interaction between CO2 and temperature on forest landscape response to global warming}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000248945800014&KeyUID=WOS:000248945800014}, DOI={10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01387.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={7}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Xu, Chonggang and Gertner, George Z. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2007}, month={Jul}, pages={1469–1483} }
 @article{xu_gertner_scheller_2007, title={Uncertainty in forest landscape response to global climatic change}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200900128520&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200900128520}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={XU, CHONGGANG and GERTNER, GEORGE and SCHELLER, ROBERT M.}, year={2007} }
 @article{radeloff_mladenoff_gustafson_scheller_zollner_he_akcakaya_2006, title={Modeling forest harvesting effects on landscape pattern in the Northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens}, volume={236}, ISSN={["1872-7042"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000242302500013&KeyUID=WOS:000242302500013}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2006.09.007}, abstractNote={Forest management shapes landscape patterns, and these patterns often differ significantly from those typical for natural disturbance regimes. This may affect wildlife habitat and other aspects of ecosystem function. Our objective was to examine the effects of different forest management decisions on landscape pattern in a fire adapted ecosystem. We used a factorial design experiment in LANDIS (a forest landscape simulation model) to test the effects of: (a) cut unit size, (b) minimum harvest age and (c) target species for management. Our study area was the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin, an area where fire suppression has caused a lack of large open areas important for wildlife. Our results show that all three management choices under investigation (cut unit size, minimum harvest age and target species for management) have strong effects on forest composition and landscape patterns. Cut unit size is the most important factor influencing landscape pattern, followed by target species for management (either jack pine or red pine) and then minimum harvest age. Open areas are more abundant, and their average size is larger, when cut units are larger, target species is jack pine, and minimum harvest age is lower. Such information can assist forest managers to relate stand level management decision to landscape patterns.}, number={1}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Radeloff, Volker C. and Mladenoff, David J. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Scheller, Robert M. and Zollner, Patrick A. and He, Hong S. and Akcakaya, H. Resit}, year={2006}, month={Nov}, pages={113–126} }
 @article{scheller_2006, title={Models in Ecosystem Science}, volume={21}, ISSN={0921-2973 1572-9761}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/S10980-005-4432-Z}, DOI={10.1007/S10980-005-4432-Z}, number={6}, journal={Landscape Ecology}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2006}, month={Aug}, pages={957–958} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2005, title={A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000226705600011&KeyUID=WOS:000226705600011}, DOI={10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00906.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Scheller, RM and Mladenoff, DJ}, year={2005}, month={Feb}, pages={307–321} }
 @article{ward_d.j. mladenoff_scheller_2005, title={Landscape-level effects of the interaction between residential development and public forest management in northern Wisconsin, USA}, volume={51}, journal={Forest Science}, author={Ward, B.C. and D.J. Mladenoff and Scheller, R.M.}, year={2005}, pages={616–632} }
 @article{ward_mladenoff_scheller_2005, title={Simulating landscape-level effects of constraints to public forest regeneration harvests due to adjacent residential development in northern Wisconsin}, volume={51}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000233973800012&KeyUID=WOS:000233973800012}, number={6}, journal={Forest Science}, author={WARD, BC and MLADENOFF, DJ and SCHELLER, RM}, year={2005}, pages={616–632} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_thomas_sickley_2005, title={Simulating the effects of fire reintroduction versus continued fire absence on forest composition and landscape structure in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, northern Minnesota, USA}, volume={8}, ISSN={["1435-0629"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10021-003-0087-2}, number={4}, journal={ECOSYSTEMS}, author={Scheller, RM and Mladenoff, DJ and Thomas, RC and Sickley, TA}, year={2005}, month={Jun}, pages={396–411} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_thomas_sickley_2005, title={Simulating the effects of fire reintroduction versus continued fire absence on forest composition and landscape structure in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, northern Minnesota, USA}, volume={8}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000230804500005&KeyUID=WOS:000230804500005}, DOI={10.1007/s10221-003-0087-2}, number={4}, journal={Ecosystems}, author={SCHELLER, RM and MLADENOFF, DJ and THOMAS, RC and SICKLEY, TA}, year={2005}, pages={396–411} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2004, title={A forest growth and biomass module for a landscape simulation model, LANDIS: design, validation, and application}, volume={180}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000224379500014&KeyUID=WOS:000224379500014}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.01.022}, abstractNote={Predicting the long-term dynamics of forest systems depends on understanding multiple processes that often operate at vastly different scales. Disturbance and seed dispersal are landscape-scale phenomena and are spatially linked across the landscape. Ecosystem processes (e.g., growth and decomposition) have high annual and inter-specific variation and are generally quantified at the scale of a forest stand. To link these widely scaled processes, we used biomass (living and dead) as an integrating variable that provides feedbacks between disturbance and ecosystem processes and feedbacks among multiple disturbances. We integrated a simple model of biomass growth, mortality, and decay into LANDIS, a spatially dynamic landscape simulation model. The new biomass module was statically linked to PnET-II, a generalized ecosystem process model. The combined model simulates disturbances (fire, wind, harvesting), dispersal, forest biomass growth and mortality, and inter- and intra-specific competition. We used the model to quantify how fire and windthrow alter forest succession, living biomass and dead biomass across an artificial landscape representative of northern Wisconsin, USA. In addition, model validation and a sensitivity analysis were conducted.}, number={1}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Scheller, RM and Mladenoff, DJ}, year={2004}, month={Dec}, pages={211–229} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2004, title={Simulating the effects of climate change, tree species migration, and disturbance on forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin.}, volume={89}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200500124314&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200500124314}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and MLADENOFF, DAVID J.}, year={2004}, pages={452} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2002, title={Fire and fire suppression mediated changes in forest composition and landscape structure of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, northern Minnesota, USA}, volume={87}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200200604675&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200200604675}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and MLADENOFF, DAVID J.}, year={2002}, pages={256} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2002, title={Understory species patterns and diversity in old-growth and managed northern hardwood forests}, volume={12}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000179198600008&KeyUID=WOS:000179198600008}, DOI={10.2307/3099975}, abstractNote={Forest management can significantly affect both the diversity and spatial patterning of understory vegetation. However, few studies have considered both diversity and spatial patterning at a stand scale. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of forest management on understory plant communities in northern hardwood forests and assess the processes governing differences in species composition, diversity, and spatial patterns. We sampled understory vegetation (all species <2 m tall) and percentage of light transmission levels in three forest types in 12 mesic northern hardwood stands in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA: old-growth, undisturbed forests; even-aged forests resulting from clearcut logging (∼65–85 yr old); and uneven-aged forests with recent selective logging. Estimated understory species richness per stand, mean species richness per quadrat, and mean percent cover per quadrat were lower in old-growth forest than in even-aged, second-growth forests and lower in even-aged than in uneven-aged, second-growth forests. Differences in species composition among the three forest types were related to available light and to coarse woody debris; however, differences between the cover of most plant groups were not significant. The mean patch size of species diversity and cover is highly variable and could not be related to forest stand type. However, understory communities in old-growth forests have significantly smaller community patch sizes and larger compositional heterogeneity. Community patch size is correlated with both coarse woody debris and light heterogeneity. Each forest stand type produces a characteristic combination of understory composition, diversity, and spatial patterning of communities. Although harvesting has negligible effects on understory alpha diversity in these mesic hardwood forests, spatial structure is slower to recover and has not recovered in the even- and uneven-aged northern hardwood forests studied. If management objectives include preserving or restoring the ecological character of the forest, harvesting may need to be altered or delayed predicated on the character of the understory.}, number={5}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Scheller, RM and Mladenoff, DJ}, year={2002}, month={Oct}, pages={1329–1343} }
 @article{mladenoff_he_scheller_crow_2001, title={Spatial stimulation of Lake States forest landscape change: Climate warming, disturbance change, and management}, volume={86}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200200265250&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200200265250}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={MLADENOFF, DAVID J. and HE, HONG S. and SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and CROW, THOMAS R.}, year={2001}, pages={161} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2001, title={Species diversity, composition, and spatial patterning of understory plants in old-growth and managed northern hardwood forests}, volume={86}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200200277304&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200200277304}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and MLADENOFF, DAVID J.}, year={2001}, pages={199} }
 @article{scheller_snarski_eaton_oehlert_1999, title={An analysis of the influence of annual thermal variables on the occurrence of fifteen warmwater fishes}, volume={128}, ISSN={["0002-8487"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000081212900004&KeyUID=WOS:000081212900004}, DOI={10.1577/1548-8659(1999)128<0257:aaotio>2.0.co;2}, abstractNote={Abstract Multisource fish-sampling data and U.S. Geological Survey temperature data from streams throughout the United States were used to investigate the influence of derived thermal regime variables on the presence or absence of 15 common warmwater fish species. The 3-year average annual thermal regime was calculated for streams where presence or absence was known for these 15 species. Six variables estimated to be of biological importance to the winter and summer survival and recruitment of a species, including measures of feeding and nonfeeding periods, were calculated from these thermal regimes. Stepwise discriminant analysis and multiple regression were used to select optimal variables for creating multivariate models. Parametric and nonparametric multivariate discriminant analyses were then performed to test our ability to correctly classify presence or absence using the thermal variables. These statistical empirical models were able to correctly predict presence or absence with greater than 90% ac...}, number={2}, journal={TRANSACTIONS OF THE AMERICAN FISHERIES SOCIETY}, author={Scheller, RM and Snarski, VM and Eaton, JG and Oehlert, GW}, year={1999}, month={Mar}, pages={257–264} }
 @article{eaton_scheller_1996, title={Effects of climate warming on fish thermal habitat in streams of the United States}, volume={41}, ISSN={["0024-3590"]}, DOI={10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.1109}, abstractNote={The effects of climate warming on the thermal habitat of 57 species of fish of the U.S. were estimated using results for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that were predicted by the Canadian Climate Center general circulation model. Baseline water temperature conditions were calculated from data collected at 1,700 U.S. Geological Survey stream monitoring stations across the U.S. Water temperatures after predicted climate change were obtained by multiplying air temperature changes by 0.9, a factor based on several field studies, and adding them to baseline water temperatures at stations in corresponding grid cells. Results indicated that habitat for cold and cool water fish would be reduced by ∼50%, and that this effect would be distributed throughout the existing range of these species. Habitat losses were greater among species with smaller initial distributions and in geographic regions with the greatest warming (e.g. the central Midwest). Results for warm water fish habitat were less certain because of the poor state of knowledge regarding their high and low temperature tolerances; however, the habitat of many species of this thermal guild likely will also be substantially reduced by climate warming, whereas the habitat of other species will be increased.}, number={5}, journal={LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY}, author={Eaton, JG and Scheller, RM}, year={1996}, month={Jul}, pages={1109–1115} }
 @article{eaton_scheller_1996, title={Effects of climate warming on fish thermal habitat in streams of the United States}, volume={41}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:A1996VN45800034&KeyUID=WOS:A1996VN45800034}, number={5}, journal={Limnology and Oceanography}, author={EATON, JG and SCHELLER, RM}, year={1996}, pages={1109–1115} }
 @article{eaton_mccormick_goodno_obrien_stefany_hondzo_scheller_1995, title={A FIELD INFORMATION-BASED SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING FISH TEMPERATURE TOLERANCES}, volume={20}, ISSN={["0363-2415"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:A1995QR09300003&KeyUID=WOS:A1995QR09300003}, DOI={10.1577/1548-8446(1995)020<0010:afisfe>2.0.co;2}, abstractNote={Abstract In 1979, Biesinger et al. described a technique for spatial and temporal matching of records of stream temperatures and fish sampling events to obtain estimates of yearly temperature regimes for freshwater fishes of the United States. This article describes the state of this Fish and Temperature Database Matching System (FTDMS), its usage to estimate thermal requirements for fishes, some proposed maximum temperature tolerances for several freshwater fish species, and the way these FTDMS-derived values relate to various laboratory test results. Although applicable to all species for which collection records exist, initial development and refinement of FTDMS has focused on estimating the maximum weekly mean temperature tolerance for 30 common fishes of the United States. The method involves extensive use of automated data processing during data incorporation, quality assurance checks, data matching, and endpoint calculation. Maximum weekly mean temperatures derived from FTDMS were always less than ...}, number={4}, journal={FISHERIES}, author={EATON, JG and MCCORMICK, JH and GOODNO, BE and OBRIEN, DG and STEFANY, HG and HONDZO, M and SCHELLER, RM}, year={1995}, month={Apr}, pages={10–18} }
 @article{eaton_mccormick_goodno_obrien_stefan_hondzo_scheller_1995, title={A FIELD INFORMATION-BASED SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING FISH TEMPERATURE TOLERANCES (VOL 20, PG 10, 1995)}, volume={20}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:A1995RQ45100015&KeyUID=WOS:A1995RQ45100015}, number={9}, journal={Fisheries}, author={EATON, JG and MCCORMICK, JH and GOODNO, BE and OBRIEN, DG and STEFAN, HG and HONDZO, M and SCHELLER, RM}, year={1995}, pages={56} }