@article{lawal_koch_scheller_costanza_2025, title={Forest demographic changes across Texas associated with hot drought}, volume={171}, ISSN={["1872-7034"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113117}, journal={ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS}, author={Lawal, Shakirudeen and Koch, Frank H. and Scheller, Robert M. and Costanza, Jennifer}, year={2025}, month={Feb} }
 @article{reese_sturtevant_dymond_quigley_duveneck_lucash_gustafson_scheller_russell_miranda_2024, title={Best practices for calibration of forest landscape models using fine-scaled reference information}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1208-6037"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2024-0085}, DOI={10.1139/cjfr-2024-0085}, abstractNote={Forest Landscape Models (FLMs) project responses to different climate, disturbance, and management scenarios and can inform decision-making that shapes ecosystems. However, use of FLM outputs by decision makers can be hampered by a lack of transparency and credibility in the calibration of modeled processes. Landscape modelers typically use fine-scaled (i.e., plot- or stand-level) information to calibrate the growth functions central to FLMs, but methods vary widely and are often poorly documented. We suggest best practices for calibration and assessment of tree growth in FLMs adapted from prior guidelines to increase rigor in ecological models and their application. Our proposed best practices include: (1) evaluating available information, (2) articulating assumptions, (3) accounting for scale, (4) formalizing model assessment stages, (5) grounding parameter ranges within empirical bounds, (6) considering parameter sensitivity, (7) verifying and corroborating output, (8) making iterative improvements, and (9) delivering sufficient documentation. We illustrate our approach across five case studies that involve a diversity of FLM designs centred on the tree-species, age-cohort structure available within the LANscape DIsturbance and Succession (LANDIS-II) modeling framework. We suggest that these best practices are applicable to many FLM platforms and provide the enhanced transparency essential for wider scientific acceptance of FLM projections.}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH}, author={Reese, Gordon C. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Dymond, Caren C. and Quigley, Kathleen M. and Duveneck, Matthew J. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Scheller, Robert M. and Russell, Matthew B. and Miranda, Brian R.}, year={2024}, month={Nov} }
 @article{robbins_loudermilk_mozelewski_jones_scheller_2024, title={Fire regimes of the Southern Appalachians may radically shift under climate change}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1933-9747"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00231-1}, DOI={10.1186/s42408-023-00231-1}, abstractNote={Abstract Background Increased drought due to climate change will alter fire regimes in mesic forested landscapes where fuel moisture typically limits fire spread and where fuel loads are consistently high. These landscapes are often extensively modified by human land use change and management. We forecast the influence of varying climate scenarios on potential shifts in the wildfire regime across the mesic forests of the Southern Appalachians. This area has a long history of fire exclusion, land use change, and an expanding wildland urban interface. We considered interactions among climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic influences to forecast future fire regimes and changes to the forest structure. We used climate scenarios representing divergent drought patterns (overall drought trend and interannual variability) within a process-based fire model that captures the influence of climate, fuels, and fire ignition on wildfire patterns and suppression. Results Compared to simulations using historical climate (1972–2018), future total burned area (2020–2100: 782,302.7 (716,655.0–847,950.3) ha) increased by 42.3% under high drought variability (1,134,888.4 (1,067,437.2–1,202,339.6) ha), 104.8% under a substantial increase in drought trend (1,602,085.7 (1,511,837.5–1,692,334.0) ha), and 484.7% when combined (4,573,925.0 (4,434,910.5–4,712,939.5) ha). Landscape patterns of fire exclusion and suppression drove the spatial variability of fire return intervals (FRI). Our projections indicate wide spatial variability in future fire regimes with some areas experiencing multiple fires per decade while others experience no fire. More frequent fires corresponded with increased oak prevalence and a reduction in the biomass of mesic hardwoods and maple; however, mesic hardwoods remained prevalent under all fire intervals because of their contemporary dominance. Conclusions Our study illustrates how future drought–fire–management interactions and a history of fire exclusion could alter future fire regimes and tree species composition. We find that increasing trends in drought magnitude and variability may increase wildfire activity, particularly in areas with minimal fire suppression. In ecosystems where fuel moisture (and not load) is the standard limitation to fire spread, increased pulses of drought may provide the conditions for more fire activity, regardless of effects on fuel loading. We conclude the effects of climate and human management will determine the novel conditions for both fire regime and ecosystem structure.}, number={1}, journal={FIRE ECOLOGY}, author={Robbins, Zachary J. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Mozelewski, Tina G. and Jones, Kate and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2024}, month={Jan} }
 @article{mcquillan_oishi_robbins_scheller_martin_2024, title={Interactions Between Climate and Species Drive Future Forest Carbon and Water Balances}, volume={12}, ISSN={["1936-0592"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.2748}, DOI={10.1002/eco.2748}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Global change is altering forest carbon and water balances; however, the extent to which tree species shape ecosystem‐scale responses to climate, particularly in biodiverse forests, remains unclear. To address this, we simulated the effects of an envelope of future climate conditions on watershed carbon and water balances and quantified the contributions of tree species based on their xylem anatomy. We accomplished this by incorporating species‐level transpiration calculations into a landscape‐scale ecosystem process model. Our revised model linked the effects of forest succession, species composition, and climate change on water and carbon. Calibration of forest water fluxes using sap flux measurements and catchment water balances captured variability in species transpiration and interannual ET in biodiverse, humid temperate forest catchments in the southern Blue Ridge Mountains, USA. Across wet and dry future climate projections, ET increased, and streamflow and net carbon uptake decreased, particularly under a scenario of increasing drought. Despite accounting for just 30% of current biomass, diffuse‐porous tree species were the main driver of carbon and water flux responses now and in the future, thus intensifying the increase in ET and decline in streamflow. As diffuse‐porous biomass continues to increase, these forests will be increasingly sensitive to drought, amplifying losses of carbon sequestration and freshwater delivery.}, journal={ECOHYDROLOGY}, author={Mcquillan, Katie A. and Oishi, A. Christopher and Robbins, Zachary J. and Scheller, Robert and Martin, Katherine L.}, year={2024}, month={Dec} }
 @article{manley_long_scheller_2024, title={Keeping up with the landscapes: promoting resilience in dynamic social-ecological systems}, volume={29}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-14563-290103}, abstractNote={Forest managers working in dry forest ecosystems must contend with the costs and benefits of fire, and they are seeking forest management strategies that enhance the resilience of forests and landscapes to future disturbances in a changing climate. An interdisciplinary science team worked with resource managers and stakeholders to assess future forest ecosystem dynamics, given potential climatic changes and management strategies, across a 23,000-ha landscape in the Lake Tahoe basin of California and Nevada in support of the Lake Tahoe West Restoration Partnership. We projected forest growth and fire dynamics using a landscape change model, upon which the science team layered additional modeling to evaluate changes in wildlife habitat, water, and economics. Managers and stakeholders used the findings of this integrated modeling effort to inform the design of a landscape restoration strategy that balanced risks and benefits based on a robust scientific foundation. The results, published in this Special Feature, suggest that a continuation of status quo management would be less effective at protecting and improving desired outcomes than more active and extensive management approaches. In addition, the types of management activity also affected ecosystem outcomes. Results from across the studies in this special feature suggest that thinning and prescribed fire were complementary, although they resulted in somewhat different effects, and that low-severity use of fire had the greatest array and magnitude of ecosystem benefits. A notable exception was carbon storage, which declined with more active management and prescribed fire in particular. We highlight key findings from this Special Feature and summarize key challenges and some lessons learned in our experience of co-producing science. In short, science-management partnerships require cooperation, patience, and skill, but they are effective in increasing the capacity of land managers to navigate in an environment of rapid change and increasing uncertainty.}, number={1}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Manley, Patricia N. and Long, Jonathan W. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2024}, month={Jan} }
 @article{lucash_williams_srikrishnan_keller_scheller_hegelson_nicholas_smithwick_2023, title={Balancing multiple forest management objectives under climate change in central Wisconsin, U.S.A.}, volume={14}, ISSN={["2666-7193"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100460}, DOI={10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100460}, abstractNote={Forest managers must balance multiple objectives and consider tradeoffs when developing a management plan. Complex interactions between successional dynamics and natural disturbances make it challenging, especially when decisions play out under the deep and dynamic uncertainties associated with climate change. Here we explored a suite of management strategies to maximize multiple management objectives and minimize tradeoffs under future climate projections and quantified the greatest sources of uncertainty. We used a spatially-explicit forest simulation model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the effects of wind, management, and climate change in central Wisconsin and calculated benefits and tradeoffs among six management objectives (maximize aboveground carbon (C), soil C, harvested C, C stored in species of cultural importance to the Menominee tribe, tree diversity, and age diversity). We found that uneven-aged management achieves more ecosystem benefits (except for harvested C) than the other harvest strategies, but it was the business-as-usual harvest scenario that minimized tradeoffs among objectives. Climate change made it more difficult to store C in soils and have diverse forests and the management strategies we considered were unable to regain these lost benefits. Climate change reduced harvested C and C stored in culturally-important species, but the management strategies were able to at least partially compensate for this effect. The uncertainty surrounding the climate projections generated the largest variation in all benefits except harvested C. Managers seeking to maximize benefits and minimize tradeoffs should consider a range of silvicultural strategies while recognizing that climate change may shrink the operating space for achieving foresters' management goals.}, journal={TREES FORESTS AND PEOPLE}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Williams, Neil G. and Srikrishnan, Vivek and Keller, Klaus and Scheller, Robert M. and Hegelson, Casey and Nicholas, Robert E. and Smithwick, Erica A. H.}, year={2023}, month={Dec} }
 @article{lucash_marshall_weiss_mcnabb_nicolsky_flerchinger_link_vogel_scheller_abramoff_et al._2023, title={Burning trees in frozen soil: Simulating fire, vegetation, soil, and hydrology in the boreal forests of Alaska}, volume={481}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110367}, abstractNote={Boreal ecosystems account for 29% of the world's total forested area and contain more carbon than any other terrestrial biome. Over the past 60 years, Alaska has warmed twice as rapidly as the contiguous U.S. and wildfire activity has increased, including the number of fires, area burned, and frequency of large wildfire seasons. These recent and rapid changes in climate and wildfire have implications for future vegetation composition, structure, and biomass in interior Alaska, given that the vegetation is highly dependent on active layer thickness, soil moisture, organic layer depth, and plant-available nutrients. Here we developed a new succession extension (DGS) of the LANDIS-II forest landscape model which integrates a vegetation dynamics model (NECN) with a soil carbon model (DAMM-McNiP), a hydrologic model (SHAW), and a deep soil profile permafrost model (GIPL) in a spatially-explicit framework. DGS Succession uses the algorithms in the NECN Succession extension of LANDIS-II to simulate growth, mortality and reproduction of vegetation but has three major improvements. First, the simple bucket model in NECN was replaced with a physically-based model (SHAW) that simulates energy and water fluxes (e.g. snow depth, evapotranspiration, soil moisture) at multiple levels in the canopy and soil. Second, the active, slow, and passive soil pools in NECN were replaced by seven soil pools that are measurable in the field, with carbon and nitrogen dynamics dictated by DAMM-McNiP. Finally, soil temperature and soil moisture are simulated only at one depth in NECN, but in DGS, soil temperature (and hence permafrost dynamics) are simulated at as many as 50 user-defined depths down to 4 m with SHAW and 75 m with GIPL. During the initial calibration phase, DGS was applied at three inventory sites at the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research area in Interior Alaska where climate forcings, species biomass, soil temperature, and/or soil moisture were available. For the landscape-scale simulations, DGS was run with the SCRPPLE fire extension of LANDIS-II under two scenarios of climate using a ∼400,000 ha landscape that included the inventory sites. Across all three sites, DGS generally captured the variation in soil moisture and temperature across depths, seasons, and years reasonably well, though there were some discrepancies at each site. DGS had better agreement with field measurements of soil moisture and temperature than its predecessor NECN which produced unrealistically low soil moisture and unrealistically high seasonal fluctuations in soil temperature. At the landscape scale, ignitions, area burned, and soil temperature increased under climate change, as expected, while soil moisture was relatively unchanged across climate scenarios. Biomass tended to decline under climate change, which differs from other modeling studies in this region but is consistent with the browning trends observed from remote sensing data. Simulating climate, vegetation succession, hydrology, permafrost, carbon and nutrient cycling, and wildfire in an integrated, spatially-explicit framework like LANDIS-II will allow us to disentangle the drivers and ecosystem responses in this rapidly changing ecosystem, as well as other forested systems with complex hydrologic, biochemical, cryospheric, and vegetation feedbacks.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Marshall, Adrienne M. and Weiss, Shelby A. and McNabb, John W. and Nicolsky, Dmitry J. and Flerchinger, Gerald N. and Link, Timothy E. and Vogel, Jason G. and Scheller, Robert M. and Abramoff, Rose Z. and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Jul} }
 @article{robbins_xu_jonko_chitra-tarak_fettig_costanza_mortenson_aukema_kueppers_scheller_2023, title={Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks}, volume={11}, ISSN={["2296-665X"]}, DOI={10.3389/fenvs.2023.1112756}, abstractNote={Outbreaks of several bark beetle species can develop rapidly in response to drought and may result in large transfers of carbon (C) stored in live trees to C stored in dead trees (10s of Tg C yr -1 in the western U.S. alone), which over time will be released back to the atmosphere. The western pine beetle (WPB) outbreak incited by the 2012–2015 mega-drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S., could portend more frequent and/or severe bark beetle outbreaks as the temperature warms and drought frequency and intensity increase in the future. However, changes in the frequency and/or severity (resultant levels of host tree mortality) of beetle outbreaks are difficult to predict as outbreaks are complex with non-linear and eruptive processes primarily driven by interactions among beetle populations, the demography of hosts and other tree species, and climate and weather. Using an insect phenology and tree defense model, we projected the future likelihood of WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada with climate drivers from different Earth System Models. Our goal was to understand how host (ponderosa pine, PIPO) recovery and future warming and drought affect the frequency and severity of WPB outbreaks and their C consequences. Our projections suggested that by 2100 the C stored in live PIPO (mean: 1.98 kg C m -2, 95% CI: 1.74–2.21 kg C m -2 ) will not return to levels that occurred before the 2012–2015 drought (2012: ∼2.30 kg C m -2 ) due to future WPB outbreaks. However, differences in climate models indicate a wide range of possible WPB outbreak frequencies and severities. Our results suggest that total plot basal area is the most significant factor in the mortality rate of PIPO by WPB in any given year, followed by drought severity and temperature. High levels of host basal area, higher temperature, and extreme drought all contribute to the frequency and severity of future WPB outbreaks. While PIPO basal area may decline under increased drought and warming, limiting high-stand basal area (>60 m 2 ha -1 ) may reduce the severity of future WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE}, author={Robbins, Zachary J. and Xu, Chonggang and Jonko, Alex and Chitra-Tarak, Rutuja and Fettig, Christopher J. and Costanza, Jennifer and Mortenson, Leif A. and Aukema, Brian H. and Kueppers, Lara M. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2023}, month={Mar} }
 @article{rolf_obando_bulley_cho_bamutaze_scheller_schirpke_2023, title={Odyssey of First IALE World Congress in Africa and Opportunities for North-South or South-South Collaboration }, volume={98}, url={https://doi.org/10.3097/LO.2023.1119}, DOI={10.3097/LO.2023.1119}, abstractNote={The landscape ecology community witnessed a landmark event in July 2023 as the 11th International Association for Landscape Ecology (IALE) World Congress unfolded on the African continent for the first time. This editorial commemorates this historic occasion, tracing the journey from the inception of Africa-IALE initiatives in 2002 to the culmination of the World Congress held in Nairobi, Kenya, almost two decades later. Having previously graced Europe, Northern America, Australia, and Asia, the IALE World Congress embraced Africa, showcasing the global reach and inclusive spirit of landscape ecology. This editorial explores the evolution of Africa-IALE, highlighting the initiatives and the persistent efforts that led to the World Congress in Africa. We firstly delve into the socio-cultural and international significance of this shift, emphasising the unique perspectives and challenges faced by the African landscape ecology community. Secondly, we assess the participants involved in the 11th World IALE Congress, the topics discussed, current trends, and priorities within the global landscape ecology research community. To do so, we conducted a bibliometric analysis of the conference proceedings. Lastly, we reflect on the impacts of this Congress. Our retrospective perspective offers a comprehensive view of the symbiotic relationships among the international landscape ecology community and how landscape ecology has evolved in parallel with emerging challenges and emerging centres of knowledge and leadership.}, journal={Landscape Online}, author={Rolf, Werner and Obando, Joy and Bulley, Henry and Cho, Moses and Bamutaze, Yazidhi and Scheller, Robert and Schirpke, Uta}, year={2023}, month={Dec}, pages={1119} }
 @article{maxwell_scheller_wilson_manley_2022, title={Assessing the effectiveness of landscape-scale forest adaptation actions to improve resilience under projected climate change}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2624-893X"]}, DOI={10.3389/ffgc.2022.740869}, abstractNote={Climate change will increase disturbance pressures on forested ecosystems worldwide. In many areas, longer, hotter summers will lead to more wildfire and more insect activity which will substantially increase overall forest mortality. Forest treatments reduce tree density and fuel loads, which in turn reduces fire and insect severity, but implementation has been limited compared to the area needing treatment. Ensuring that forests remain near their reference conditions will require a significant increase in the pace and scale of forest management. In order to assess what pace and scale may be required for a landscape at risk, we simulated forest and disturbance dynamics for the central Sierra Nevada, USA. Our modeling framework included forest growth and succession, wildfire, insect mortality and locally relevant management actions. Our simulations accounted for climate change (five unique global change models on a business-as-usual emissions pathway) and a wide range of plausible forest management scenarios (six total, ranging from less than 1% of area receiving management treatments per year to 6% per year). The climate projections we considered all led to an increasing climatic water deficit, which in turn led to widespread insect caused mortality across the landscape. The level of insect mortality limited the amount of carbon stored and sequestered while leading to significant composition changes, however, only one climate change projection resulted in increased fire over contemporary conditions. While increased pace and scale of treatments led to offsets in fire related tree mortality, managing toward historic reference conditions was not sufficient to reduce insect-caused forest mortality. As such, new management intensities and other adaptation actions may be necessary to maintain forest resilience under an uncertain future climate.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE}, author={Maxwell, Charles J. and Scheller, Robert M. and Wilson, Kristen N. and Manley, Patricia N.}, year={2022}, month={Nov} }
 @article{robbins_loudermilk_reilly_o'brien_jones_gerstle_scheller_2022, title={Delayed fire mortality has long-term ecological effects across the Southern Appalachian landscape}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4153}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.4153}, abstractNote={Abstract Fire is a critical ecological process to the forests of the Southern Appalachians. Where fire was excluded from forest types that historically burned frequently, unanticipated changes can occur when fire is reintroduced. For example, the development of new fuel characteristics can change the patterns of fire mortality and associated ecological responses. To test the fire effects of delayed fire mortality (mortality initiated by fire that occurs subsequent to the fire year) in the Southern Appalachians, USA, we developed a fire‐effects model using both field studies and remote sensing. We then simulated these effects at a landscape scale to estimate broader ecological effects. Fire‐effects models that accounted for delayed mortality increased landscape biomass removed annually (~23%) and increased the number of sites with high light conditions (leaf area index < 4) when compared to simulations that only account for immediate mortality. While delayed mortality occurred across species and age classes, it was especially prevalent among older trees (>100 years old) and fire‐resistant species ( Quercus spp.). Overall, regeneration (trees <20 years old) changed very little, even with the inclusion of delayed mortality. This evidence suggests that, even when accounting for delayed mortality, individual fires are unlikely to shift the landscape composition toward the conditions of forests prior to fire exclusion and may even increase mesophication long term due to the loss of overstory dominant xeric trees.}, number={6}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Robbins, Zachary J. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Reilly, Matthew J. and O'Brien, Joseph J. and Jones, Kate and Gerstle, Christopher T. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{mozelewski_robbins_scheller_2022, title={Forecasting the influence of conservation strategies on landscape connectivity}, volume={6}, ISSN={["1523-1739"]}, DOI={10.1111/cobi.13904}, abstractNote={Maintaining and enhancing landscape connectivity reduces biodiversity declines due to habitat fragmentation. Uncertainty remains, however, about the effectiveness of conservation for enhancing connectivity for multiple species on dynamic landscapes, especially over long time horizons. We forecasted landscape connectivity from 2020 to 2100 under four common conservation land-acquisition strategies: acquiring the lowest cost land, acquiring land clustered around already established conservation areas, acquiring land with high geodiversity characteristics, and acquiring land opportunistically. We used graph theoretic metrics to quantify landscape connectivity across these four strategies, evaluating connectivity for four ecologically relevant species guilds that represent endpoints along a spectrum of vagility and habitat specificity: long- versus short-distance dispersal ability and habitat specialists versus generalists. We applied our method to central North Carolina and incorporated landscape dynamics, including forest growth, succession, disturbance, and management. Landscape connectivity improved for specialist species under all conservation strategies employed, although increases were highly variable across strategies. For generalist species, connectivity improvements were negligible. Overall, clustering the development of new protected areas around land already designated for conservation yielded the largest improvements in connectivity; increases were several orders of magnitude beyond current landscape connectivity for long- and short-distance dispersing specialist species. Conserving the lowest cost land contributed the least to connectivity. Our approach provides insight into the connectivity contributions of a suite of conservation alternatives prior to on-the-ground implementation and, therefore, can inform connectivity planning to maximize conservation benefit.Pronóstico de la Influencia de las Estrategias de Conservación sobre la Conectividad del Paisaje Resumen El mantenimiento y la mejora de la conectividad de paisaje reduce las declinaciones de biodiversidad causadas por la fragmentación del hábitat. Sin embargo, todavía existe incertidumbre sobre lo efectiva que es la conservación para la mejora de la conectividad para múltiples especies en paisajes dinámicos, especialmente durante periodos largos. Pronosticamos la conectividad de paisaje desde el 2020 hasta el 2100 bajo cuatro estrategias comunes de adquisición de tierras para conservación: adquisición de las tierras más baratas, adquisición de conjuntos de tierras adyacentes a áreas de conservación ya establecidas, adquisición de tierras con una gran diversidad de características geográficas, y adquisición oportunista de tierras. Después usamos medidas de teoría de grafos para cuantificar la conectividad de paisaje en estas cuatro estrategias y para evaluar la conectividad de cuatro gremios de especies con relevancia ecológica que representan los puntos finales en un espectro de movilidad y especificidad de hábitat: habilidad de dispersión de distancia corta versus larga y especialistas versus generalistas de hábitat. Aplicamos nuestro método en el centro de Carolina del Norte e incorporamos las dinámicas de paisaje, incluyendo el crecimiento, sucesión, alteración y gestión forestales. La conectividad del paisaje mejoró para las especies especialistas bajo todas las estrategias de conservación que se usaron, aunque los incrementos fueron muy variables según la estrategia. Para las especies generalistas, las mejoras en la conectividad fueron insignificantes. En general, agrupar al desarrollo de nuevas áreas protegidas alrededor de tierras ya designadas a la conservación produjo la mayor cantidad de mejoras en la conectividad; los incrementos estuvieron varias magnitudes más allá de la conectividad actual del paisaje para las especies especialistas con dispersión de corta y larga distancia. La conservación de las tierras más baratas contribuyó a la menor conectividad. Nuestra estrategia proporciona información sobre las contribuciones de conectividad de un conjunto de alternativas de conservación previas la implementación in situ y por lo tanto puede servir para orientar la planeación y maximizar el beneficio de conservación.【摘要】维持和提高景观连接度可以减少因生境破碎化导致的生物多样性丧失。然而, 在动态的景观中提高多物种连接度的保护有效性仍存在不确定性, 特别是在较长的时间范围内。本研究预测了 4 种常见的保护性土地征用策略在 2020 年到 2100 年的景观连接度, 这些策略包括征用成本最低的土地、征用已有保护区周围的土地、征用地理多样性高的土地, 以及随机征用土地。我们使用图论指标量化了这 4 种策略的景观连接度, 评估了 4 个有生态价值的物种种群的连接度, 这些物种代表了不同的扩散能力和栖息地特异性:从长距离扩散到短距离扩散, 以及从栖息地专性种到广适种。我们将该方法应用于北卡罗来纳州中部, 并纳入了景观动态, 包括森林生长、演替、干扰和管理。我们发现, 专性种的景观连接度在所有保护策略下都得到了改善, 尽管不同策略之间的效果存在差异。而广适种的连接度则几乎没有提高。总的来说, 将新的保护区集中在已经建立的保护地周围, 可以最大限度地提高连接度;长距离和短距离扩散的专性种连接度的增加比目前的景观连接度要高出几个数量级。保护成本最低的土地对连接度的贡献最小。我们的方法为一系列保护替代方案实施前的连接度贡献评估提供了见解, 因此可以为连接度规划提供信息, 使保护效益最大化。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.}, journal={CONSERVATION BIOLOGY}, author={Mozelewski, Tina G. and Robbins, Zachary J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{maxwell_scheller_long_manley_2022, title={Forest management under uncertainty: the influence of management versus climate change and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA.}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-13278-270215}, abstractNote={Maxwell, C., R. M. Scheller, J. W. Long, and P. Manley. 2022. Forest management under uncertainty: the influence of management versus climate change and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA.. Ecology and Society 27(2):15. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13278-270215}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Maxwell, Charles and Scheller, Robert M. and Long, Jonathan W. and Manley, Patricia}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{maxwell_scheller_long_manley_2022, title={Frequency of disturbance mitigates high-severity fire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California and Nevada}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-12954-270121}, abstractNote={Because of past land use changes and changing climate, forests are moving outside of their historical range of variation. As fires become more severe, forest managers are searching for strategies that can restore forest health and reduce fire risk. However, management activities are only one part of a suite of disturbance vectors that shape forest conditions. To account for the range of disturbance intensities and disturbance types (wildfire, bark beetles, and management), we developed a disturbance return interval (DRI) that represents the average return period for any disturbance, human or natural. We applied the DRI to examine forest change in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. We specifically investigated the consequences of DRI on the proportion of high-severity fire and the net sequestration of carbon. In order to test the management component of the DRI, we developed management scenarios with forest managers and stakeholders in the region; these scenarios were integrated into a mechanistic forest landscape model that also accounted for climate change, as well as natural disturbances of wildfire and insect outbreaks. Our results suggest increasing the frequency of disturbances (a lower DRI) would reduce the percentage of high-severity fire on landscape but not the total amount of wildfire in general. However, a higher DRI reduced carbon storage and sequestration, particularly in management strategies that emphasized prescribed fire over hand or mechanical fuel treatments.}, number={1}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Maxwell, Charles and Scheller, Robert M. and Long, Jonathan W. and Manley, Patricia}, year={2022}, month={Mar} }
 @article{patru-stupariu_furst_stupariu_scheller_2022, title={Interdisciplinary landscape analysis with novel technologies}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-022-01444-6}, number={5}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Patru-Stupariu, Ileana and Furst, Christine and Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={May}, pages={1207–1210} }
 @article{lucash_weiss_duveneck_scheller_2022, title={Managing for red-cockaded woodpeckers is more complicated under climate change}, volume={9}, ISSN={["1937-2817"]}, DOI={10.1002/jwmg.22309}, abstractNote={Abstract Open pine ( Pinus spp.) savannas are home to the federally endangered red‐cockaded woodpecker ( Leuconotopicus borealis ). Frequent fires are essential for maintaining the open canopy and wiregrass ( Aristida stricta ) groundcover preferred by these woodpeckers, which face ongoing threats from climate change, hurricanes, and land use change. Our objective was to project future changes in habitat for red‐cockaded woodpeckers at the Fort Bragg military installation in North Carolina, USA, under different scenarios of climate and disturbances from 2000 to 2050. We used a spatially explicit, forest simulation model (LANDIS‐II) to simulate climate change, hurricanes, and forest management (prescribed fire, thinning, harvesting). We examined the relative risks of climate change and hurricanes to red‐cockaded woodpecker habitat and quantified the capacity of management practices to promote their habitat, given hurricanes and projected changes in climate. Climate change had little direct effect on red‐cockaded woodpecker habitat, but it reduced the capacity of managers to use prescribed fire, as currently practiced. This effect became more pronounced in the scenario with low prescribed fire frequency, which caused a 10% decline in habitat under climate change. Hurricanes had a more substantial impact on red‐cockaded woodpecker habitat than climate change or management, causing an average decline in extent by 41% compared to scenarios without hurricanes. Our work suggests that hurricanes pose a greater threat to red‐cockaded woodpecker habitat than climate change, but despite these threats, overall habitat will likely still increase until 2050, which bodes well for this endangered species. Deployment of prescribed burning became more challenging under climate warming, and if this trend continues, it may threaten red‐cockaded woodpecker conservation efforts over the next century.}, journal={JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Weiss, Shelby and Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={Sep} }
 @article{evans_holland_long_maxwell_scheller_patrick_potts_2022, title={Modeling the Risk Reduction Benefit of Forest Management Using a Case Study in the Lake Tahoe Basin}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-13169-270218}, abstractNote={Across the United States, wildfire severity and frequency are increasing, placing many properties at risk of harm or destruction. We quantify and compare how different forest management strategies designed to increase forest resilience and health reduce the number of properties at risk from wildfire, focusing on the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. We combine landscape change simulations (including climate change, wildfire, and management effects) with scenarios of current and plausible fuel treatment activities and parcel-scale fire risk analysis. Results suggest that more aggressive fuel treatment activities that treat more area on the landscape, whether through mechanical and hand thinning or prescribed fire, dramatically lower the fire probability in the region and lead to a corresponding lower risk of property loss. We estimate that relative to recent practices of focusing management in the wildland–urban interface, more active forest management can reduce property loss risk by 45%–76%, or approximately 2600–4900 properties. The majority of this risk reduction is for single family residences, which constitute most structures in the region. Further, we find that the highest risk reduction is obtained through strategies that treat a substantially greater area than is currently treated in the region and allows for selective wildfires to burn for resource objectives outside of the wildland–urban interface. These results highlight the importance of more active forest management as an effective tool in reducing the wildfire risk to capital assets in the region.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Evans, Samuel G. and Holland, Tim G. and Long, Jonathan W. and Maxwell, Charles and Scheller, Robert M. and Patrick, Evan and Potts, Matthew D.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{white_holland_abelson_kretchun_maxwell_scheller_2022, title={Simulating wildlife habitat dynamics over the next century to help inform best management strategies for biodiversity in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-13301-270231}, abstractNote={White, A. M., T. G. Holland, E. S. Abelson, A. Kretchun, C. J. Maxwell, and R. M. Scheller. 2022. Simulating wildlife habitat dynamics over the next century to help inform best management strategies for biodiversity in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Ecology and Society 27(2):31. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13301-270231}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={White, Angela M. and Holland, Tim G. and Abelson, Eric S. and Kretchun, Alec and Maxwell, Charles J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{holland_evans_long_maxwell_scheller_potts_2022, title={The management costs of alternative forest management strategies in the Lake Tahoe Basin}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-13481-270443}, abstractNote={Wildfires play an important ecological role in fire-adapted landscapes throughout California. However, there is a growing awareness that large wildfires in increasingly populated areas incur costs that may not be acceptable to society. Various forest management strategies have been proposed that seek to reduce the prevalence and severity of wildfires in areas where these costs are high. In this study we estimate the financial costs of various hypothetical forest management scenarios in the Lake Tahoe West landscape of Northern California. The objective of the study was to quantify trade-offs and cost constraints that would affect the feasibility of each scenario. The scenarios ranged from minimal forest management to several options for more intensive fuels management that relied to varying degrees on thinning and prescribed burning. We assessed stand-level costs associated with thinning, prescribed burn management, and timber and biomass transport, as well as revenues from timber and energy chips sold. Using modeled fire occurrence and severity metrics, we also used historical wildfire data to estimate plausible fire suppression costs. Our findings suggest that increased forest management, through the use of either hand/mechanical treatments or prescribed fire, can reduce fire suppression costs relative to recent practices by more than US$400,000 per year. These more intensive management scenarios differ in their cost-effectiveness. Scenarios that increase the use of prescribed fire appear to be the more cost-effective management interventions available with annual costs roughly half as much as a scenario focused on increased hand and mechanical thinning. The results are useful for understanding the financial implications of modifying forest management practices designed to lower the private and social costs of wildfire in the region.}, number={4}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Holland, Timothy G. and Evans, Samuel G. and Long, Jonathan W. and Maxwell, Charles and Scheller, Robert M. and Potts, Matthew D.}, year={2022}, month={Dec} }
 @article{dobre_long_maxwell_elliot_lew_brooks_scheller_2022, title={Water quality and forest restoration in the Lake Tahoe basin: impacts of future management options}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/ES-13133-270206}, abstractNote={Land managers in the Lake Tahoe basin are considering increasing the use of prescribed fire and forest thinning to restore conditions that will be more resilient to wildfires. However, such restorative treatments also constitute disturbances that could increase sediment and nutrient loads. We examined whether the water-quality impacts from future treatments are likely to be lower compared to the potential impacts from future wildfires under various climate change scenarios. We applied an online interface for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model in combination with a landscape change model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the effects of different combinations of thinning and prescribed burning on fine sediment (< 2 mm), very fine sediment (< 16 µm), and phosphorus over time. First, we generated results based on historic weather data for soil disturbance conditions, including: an undisturbed baseline, a uniform thinning treatment; a uniform prescribed fire treatment; and uniform low, moderate, and high wildfire burn severity. Residual ground cover declined in that order, and expected loads of sediment and phosphorus increased. We then combined the estimated loads from hillslopes with projected management-disturbance regimes across each decade of the next century. We found that expected sediment and phosphorus loads were lower under the scenario that emphasized thinning, whereas scenarios that increased prescribed burning resulted in loads that were comparable to scenarios that involved less treatment. These results reflect the finding from the WEPP analysis that prescribed burning is expected to reduce ground cover more than is thinning. Our analysis supports efforts to increase fuel reduction treatments to mitigate future wildfires, but it also suggests that preventative treatments may not avoid a long-term decline in water quality as wildfires increase with climate change.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Dobre, Mariana and Long, Jonathan W. and Maxwell, Charles and Elliot, William J. and Lew, Roger and Brooks, Erin S. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{sotnik_cassell_duveneck_scheller_2021, title={A new agent-based model provides insight into deep uncertainty faced in simulated forest management}, volume={8}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01324-5}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-021-01324-5}, abstractNote={Exploratory modeling in forestry uses a variety of approaches to simulate forest management. One important assumption that every approach makes is about the deep uncertainty—the lack of the knowledge required for making an informed decision—that future forest management will face. This assumption can strongly influence simulation results and their interpretation but is rarely studied. Our objective was to explore how differences in modeling approaches influence the deep uncertainty faced in simulated forest management. We used SOSIEL Harvest, a new agent-based extension to a landscape-change model, LANDIS-II, to simulate three approaches to modeling forest management. For each, we used the same forest and management data from Michigan, US, which isolated the differences among approaches as the only variable factor. We then used a new method, also introduced here, to measure and compare the deep uncertainty faced during simulated management. Finally, we used a typology of sources of uncertainty to categorize the sources responsible for this deep uncertainty. The simulated forest management in the three modeling approaches faced substantially different degrees of deep uncertainty, which translated into considerable differences in simulation results. There was an overall negative relationship between deep uncertainty and the ability of the management to respond to forest change and adapt decisions accordingly. While inherent deep uncertainty faced in simulated forest management can be substantial, it is overestimated by exploratory models that underestimate management’s ability to respond to forest change. Reducing such model-related uncertainty will allow for more realistic results from exploratory studies of forest management.}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Sotnik, Garry and Cassell, Brooke A. and Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2021}, month={Aug} }
 @misc{mozelewski_scheller_2021, title={Forecasting for intended consequences}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2578-4854"]}, DOI={10.1111/csp2.370}, abstractNote={Abstract Restoration and conservation innovations face numerous challenges that often limit widespread adoption, including uncertainty of outcomes, risk averse or status quo biased management, and unknown trade‐offs. These barriers often result in cautious conservation that does not consider the true cost of impeding innovation, and overemphasizes the risks of unintended consequences versus the opportunities presented by proactive and innovative conservation, the intended consequences. Simulation models are powerful tools for forecasting and evaluating the potential outcomes of restoration or conservation innovations prior to on‐the‐ground deployment. These forecasts provide information about the potential trade‐offs among the risks and benefits of candidate management actions, elucidating the likelihood that an innovation will achieve its intended consequences and at what cost. They can also highlight when and where business‐as‐usual management may incur larger costs than alternative management approaches over the long‐term. Forecasts inform the decision‐making process prior to the implementation of emergent, proactive practices at broad scales, lending support for management decisions and reducing the barriers to innovation. Here we review the science, motivations, and challenges of forecasting for restoration and conservation innovations.}, number={4}, journal={CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE}, author={Mozelewski, Tina G. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2021}, month={Apr} }
 @article{henne_hawbaker_scheller_zhao_he_xu_zhu_2021, title={Increased burning in a warming climate reduces carbon uptake in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem despite productivity gains}, url={https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13559}, DOI={10.1111/1365-2745.13559}, abstractNote={Abstract The effects of changing climate and disturbance on mountain forest carbon (C) stocks vary with tree species distributions and over elevational gradients. Warming can not only increase C uptake by stimulating productivity at high elevations but also enhance C release by increasing respiration and the frequency, intensity and size of wildfires. To understand the consequences of climate change for temperate mountain forests, we simulated interactions among climate, wildfire, tree species and their combined effects on regional C stocks in forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA (GYE) with the LANDIS‐II landscape change model. Simulations used historical climate and future potential climate represented by downscaled projections from five general circulation models (GCMs) that bracket the range of variability under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Total ecosystem C increased by 67% through 2100 in simulations with historical climate, and by 38%–69% with GCM climate. Differences in C uptake among GCMs resulted primarily from variation in area burned, not productivity. Warming increased productivity by extending the growing season, especially near upper tree line, but did not offset biomass losses to fire. By 2100, simulated area burned increased by 27%–215% under GCM climate, with the largest increases after 2050. With warming >3°C in mean annual temperature, the increased frequency of large fires reduced live C stocks by 4%–36% relative to the control, historical climate scenario. However, relative losses in total C were delayed under GCMs with large increases in summer precipitation and buffered by C retained in soils and the wood of fire‐killed trees. Increasing fire size limited seed dispersal, and reductions in soil moisture limited seedling establishment; both effects will likely constrain long‐term forest regeneration and C uptake. Synthesis . Forests in the GYE can maintain a C sink through the mid‐century in a warming climate but continued warming may cause the loss of forest area, live above‐ground biomass and, ultimately, ecosystem C. Future changes in C stocks in similar forests throughout western North America will depend on regional thresholds for extensive wildfire and forest regeneration and therefore, changes may occur earlier in drier regions.}, journal={Journal of Ecology}, author={Henne, Paul D. and Hawbaker, Todd J. and Scheller, Robert M. and Zhao, Feng and He, Hong S. and Xu, Wenru and Zhu, Zhiliang}, editor={Jucker, TommasoEditor}, year={2021}, month={Mar} }
 @misc{phelan_baumgartner_brand_brister_burgiel_charo_coche_cofrancesco_delborne_edwards_et al._2021, title={Intended consequences statement}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2578-4854"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85106753330&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1111/csp2.371}, abstractNote={As the biodiversity crisis accelerates, the stakes are higher for threatened plants and animals. Rebuilding the health of our planet will require addressing underlying threats at many scales, including habitat loss and climate change. Conservation interventions such as habitat protection, management, restoration, predator control, translocation, genetic rescue, and biological control have the potential to help threatened or endangered species avert extinction. These existing, well-tested methods can be complemented and augmented by more frequent and faster adoption of new technologies, such as powerful new genetic tools. In addition, synthetic biology might offer solutions to currently intractable conservation problems. We believe that conservation needs to be bold and clear-eyed in this moment of great urgency. Proposed efforts to mitigate conservation threats often raise concerns about potentially harmful unintended consequences. For some highly documented strategies based on conservation principles, such as biological control, conservation translocations, and restoration of natural fire regimes, evidence to date suggests that careful planning produces the intended consequences while avoiding adverse unintended consequences. For example, better identification and mitigation of risks has resulted in no severe, negative, unintended consequences for conservation translocations and biological control releases over the last 30 years in the United States (Novak et al., 2021). This progress, especially after the well-publicized harmful interventions from the early history of the field, has been made by improving conservation intervention techniques, scientific understanding of dynamic interactions in complex ecosystems, and early stakeholder engagement. The substantial history of intervention should encourage us to thoughtfully pursue novel approaches to conservation as the technology advances, focusing on the future we want, rather than being daunted by the future we fear. In June 2020, Revive & Restore convened a group of 57 conservationists, wildlife biologists, restoration specialists, conservation geneticists, ethicists, and social scientists to propose a new framework for the future of conservation, focused on intended consequences. There was broad consensus that developing and employing what might be considered controversial genetic technologies will require a commitment to responsible decision-making that respects the diversity of perspectives, interests, and values among different stakeholders. To encourage working confidently with emerging tools and technologies, we propose a framework that increases inclusivity and embraces conservation innovation. These initial points of agreement, along with an evolving code of practice, can help guide future conservation interventions and inspire confidence in our ability to design for and achieve intended consequences. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of: the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, CSIRO, NatureScot, Imperial College London, San Diego Zoo Global, and National Invasive Species Council. The workshop that inspired this statement was supported by Revive & Restore, University of Wisconsin-Madison, The Nature Conservancy of California, Gerry Ohrstrom, and Amy and Mark Tercek. We would like to thank the editor and an anonymous reviewer who read early versions and gave constructive feedback that improved this statement. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare. All authors have contributed and have given final approval of the version to be published. No data were collected for this article. No data were collected for this article.}, number={4}, journal={CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE}, author={Phelan, Ryan and Baumgartner, Bridget and Brand, Stewart and Brister, Evelyn and Burgiel, Stanley W. and Charo, R. Alta and Coche, Isabelle and Cofrancesco, Al and Delborne, Jason A. and Edwards, Owain and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Apr} }
 @article{olson_smithwick_lucash_scheller_nicholas_ruckert_caldwell_2021, title={Landscape-Scale Forest Reorganization Following Insect Invasion and Harvest Under Future Climate Change Scenarios}, volume={24}, ISSN={["1435-0629"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10021-021-00616-w}, abstractNote={Abstract Emerald ash borer (EAB; Agrilus planipennis Farimaire) has been found in 35 US states and five Canadian provinces. This invasive beetle is causing widespread mortality to ash trees ( Fraxinus spp.), which are an important timber product and ornamental tree, as well as a cultural resource for some Tribes. The damage will likely continue despite efforts to impede its spread. Further, widespread and rapid ash mortality as a result of EAB is expected to alter forest composition and structure, especially when coupled with the regional effects of climate change in post-ash forests. Thus, we forecasted the long-term effects of EAB-induced ash mortality and preemptive ash harvest (a forest management mitigation strategy) on forested land across a 2-million-hectare region in northern Wisconsin. We used a spatially explicit and spatially interactive forest simulation model, LANDIS-II, to estimate future species dominance and biodiversity assuming continued widespread ash mortality. We ran forest disturbance and succession simulations under historic climate conditions and three downscaled CMIP5 climate change projections representing the upper bound of expected changes in precipitation and temperature. Our results suggest that although ash loss from EAB or harvest resulted in altered biodiversity patterns in some stands, climate change will be the major driver of changes in biodiversity by the end of century, causing increases in the dominance of southern species and homogenization of species composition across the landscape.}, number={7}, journal={ECOSYSTEMS}, author={Olson, Stacey K. and Smithwick, Erica A. H. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Nicholas, Robert E. and Ruckert, Kelsey L. and Caldwell, Christopher M.}, year={2021}, month={Nov}, pages={1756–1774} }
 @article{vakili_shakeri_motahari_farahani_robbins_scheller_2021, title={Resistance and Resilience of Hyrcanian Mixed Forests Under Natural and Anthropogenic Disturbances}, volume={4}, ISSN={["2624-893X"]}, DOI={10.3389/ffgc.2021.640451}, abstractNote={Biological disturbances are integral to forest ecosystems and have pronounced effects on forest resistance, resilience, and diversity. The Hyrcanian mixed forest, in northern Iran, is at risk of declining resistance, resilience, and diversity due to ongoing pressure from land use change, harvesting, and biological disturbances. We analyzed the resistance and resilience of this area under two biological disturbances (i.e., oak charcoal fungus, Biscogniauxia mediterranea , and alder leaf beetle, Galerucella lineola ) and in concert with proposed harvesting. We used a simulation modeling approach whereby we simulated 12 combinations of biological disturbances and harvesting scenarios using the LANDIS-II landscape change model. We estimated the correlation between forest resistance and resilience and tree species diversity to harvesting and biological disturbance. We analyzed the full species composition and age class for 30 and 100 years after disturbances in order to assess resistance as the change in species composition over time. We considered resilience as the ability to recover from a disturbance back to a similar initial state. Results indicate a positive effect of biological disturbances and harvesting on diversity. Our simulations resulted in a negative relationship between diversity-resistance and diversity-resilience within high diversity areas. Our simulation of the Hyrcanian forest reveals that harvesting and biological disturbances, as tested, fulfill the goal of maintaining forest diversity. However, increasing diversity does not always follow by increasing forest resistance and resilience. Scenarios with oak charcoal fungus, both with and without harvesting indicate the lowest decrease in resilient and resistant.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE}, author={Vakili, Mehdi and Shakeri, Zahed and Motahari, Saeed and Farahani, Maryam and Robbins, Zachary James and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2021}, month={Jul} }
 @article{huang_lucash_scheller_klippel_2021, title={Walking through the forests of the future: using data-driven virtual reality to visualize forests under climate change}, volume={11}, url={https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2020.1830997}, DOI={10.1080/13658816.2020.1830997}, abstractNote={Communicating and understanding climate induced environmental changes can be challenging, especially using traditional representations such as graphs, maps or photos. Immersive visualizations and experiences offer an intuitive, visceral approach to otherwise rather abstract concepts, but creating them scientifically is challenging. In this paper, we linked ecological modeling, procedural modeling, and virtual reality to provide an immersive experience of a future forest. We mapped current tree species composition in northern Wisconsin using the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and then forecast forest change 50 years into the future under two climate scenarios using LANDIS-II, a spatially-explicit, mechanistic simulation model. We converted the model output (e.g., tree biomass) into parameters required for 3D visualizations with analytical modeling. Procedural rules allowed us to efficiently and reproducibly translate the parameters into a simulated forest. Data visualization, environment exploration, and information retrieval were realized using the Unreal Engine. A system evaluation with experts in ecology provided positive feedback and future topics for a comprehensive ecosystem visualization and analysis approach. Our approach to create visceral experiences of forests under climate change can facilitate communication among experts, policy-makers, and the general public.}, journal={International Journal of Geographical Information Science}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Huang, Jiawei and Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Klippel, Alexander}, year={2021}, month={Jun}, pages={1–24} }
 @article{robbins_xu_aukema_buotte_chitra-tarak_fettig_goulden_goodsman_hall_koven_et al._2021, title={Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California}, volume={10}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, DOI={10.1111/gcb.15927}, abstractNote={Quantifying the responses of forest disturbances to climate warming is critical to our understanding of carbon cycles and energy balances of the Earth system. The impact of warming on bark beetle outbreaks is complex as multiple drivers of these events may respond differently to warming. Using a novel model of bark beetle biology and host tree interactions, we assessed how contemporary warming affected western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) populations and mortality of its host, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), during an extreme drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, United States. When compared with the field data, our model captured the western pine beetle flight timing and rates of ponderosa pine mortality observed during the drought. In assessing the influence of temperature on western pine beetles, we found that contemporary warming increased the development rate of the western pine beetle and decreased the overwinter mortality rate of western pine beetle larvae leading to increased population growth during periods of lowered tree defense. We attribute a 29.9% (95% CI: 29.4%-30.2%) increase in ponderosa pine mortality during drought directly to increases in western pine beetle voltinism (i.e., associated with increased development rates of western pine beetle) and, to a much lesser extent, reductions in overwintering mortality. These findings, along with other studies, suggest each degree (°C) increase in temperature may have increased the number of ponderosa pine killed by upwards of 35%-40% °C-1 if the effects of compromised tree defenses (15%-20%) and increased western pine beetle populations (20%) are additive. Due to the warming ability to considerably increase mortality through the mechanism of bark beetle populations, models need to consider climate's influence on both host tree stress and the bark beetle population dynamics when determining future levels of tree mortality.}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Robbins, Zachary J. and Xu, Chonggang and Aukema, Brian H. and Buotte, Polly C. and Chitra-Tarak, Rutuja and Fettig, Christopher J. and Goulden, Michael L. and Goodsman, Devin W. and Hall, Alexander D. and Koven, Charles D. and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Oct} }
 @article{schrum_scheller_duveneck_lucash_2020, title={Base-Hurricane: A new extension for the Landis-II forest landscape model}, volume={133}, ISSN={["1873-6726"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104833}, abstractNote={Hurricanes in the southeast United States are infrequent disturbances that affect large areas and have a large effect on forest succession. In order to understand and quantify this effect, we added a new module to the LANDIS-II landscape change model. Focusing on the southeast coast of the United States, we simulated stochastic hurricanes for 50 years. For each simulated storm, the new model extension generates the maximum sustained wind speed over the region and uses the resulting parameter surface to compute maximum sustained wind speed for each cohort cell in a raster grid. Mortality is estimated for each species and age cohort in each cell based on the maximum sustained wind speed, altering forest succession. Results indicate that hurricanes reduce average aboveground biomass by > 20% over 50 years on a landscape in Fort Bragg, North Carolina (USA) compared to a scenario without hurricanes and increased uncertainty of projected succession.}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE}, author={Schrum, Paul and Scheller, Robert M. and Duveneck, Matthew J. and Lucash, Melissa S.}, year={2020}, month={Nov} }
 @article{maxwell_serra-diaz_scheller_thompson_2020, title={Co-designed management scenarios shape the responses of seasonally dry forests to changing climate and fire regimes}, volume={57}, ISSN={["1365-2664"]}, DOI={10.1111/1365-2664.13630}, abstractNote={Abstract Climate change is altering disturbance regimes and recovery rates of forests globally. The future of these forests will depend on how climate change interacts with management activities. Forest managers are in critical need of strategies to manage the effects of climate change. We co‐designed forest management scenarios with forest managers and stakeholders in the Klamath ecoregion of Oregon and California, a seasonally dry forest in the Western US subject to fire disturbances. The resultant scenarios span a broad range of forest and fire management strategies. Using a mechanistic forest landscape model, we simulated the scenarios as they interacted with forest growth, succession, wildfire disturbances and climate change. We analysed the simulations to (a) understand how scenarios affected the fire regime and (b) estimate how each scenario altered potential forest composition. Within the simulation timeframe (85 years), the scenarios had a large influence on fire regimes, with fire rotation periods ranging from 60 years in a minimal management scenario to 180 years with an industrial forestry style management scenario. Regardless of management strategy, mega‐fires (>100,000 ha) are expected to increase in frequency, driven by stronger climate forcing and extreme fire weather. High elevation conifers declined across all climate and management scenarios, reflecting an imbalance between forest types, climate and disturbance. At lower elevations (<1,800 m), most scenarios maintained forest cover levels; however, the minimal intervention scenario triggered 5 × 10 5 ha of mixed conifer loss by the end of the century in favour of shrublands, whereas the maximal intervention scenario added an equivalent amount of mixed conifer. Policy implications . Forest management scenarios that expand beyond current policies—including privatization and aggressive climate adaptation—can strongly influence forest trajectories despite a climate‐enhanced fire regime. Forest management can alter forest trajectories by increasing the pace and scale of actions taken, such as fuel reduction treatments, or by limiting other actions, such as fire suppression.}, number={7}, journal={JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY}, author={Maxwell, Charles J. and Serra-Diaz, Josep M. and Scheller, Robert M. and Thompson, Jonathan R.}, year={2020}, month={Jul}, pages={1328–1340} }
 @misc{mclauchlan_higuera_miesel_rogers_schweitzer_shuman_tepley_varner_veblen_adalsteinsson_et al._2020, title={Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers}, volume={108}, ISSN={["1365-2745"]}, DOI={10.1111/1365-2745.13403}, abstractNote={Abstract Fire is a powerful ecological and evolutionary force that regulates organismal traits, population sizes, species interactions, community composition, carbon and nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. It also presents a rapidly growing societal challenge, due to both increasingly destructive wildfires and fire exclusion in fire‐dependent ecosystems. As an ecological process, fire integrates complex feedbacks among biological, social and geophysical processes, requiring coordination across several fields and scales of study. Here, we describe the diversity of ways in which fire operates as a fundamental ecological and evolutionary process on Earth. We explore research priorities in six categories of fire ecology: (a) characteristics of fire regimes, (b) changing fire regimes, (c) fire effects on above‐ground ecology, (d) fire effects on below‐ground ecology, (e) fire behaviour and (f) fire ecology modelling. We identify three emergent themes: the need to study fire across temporal scales, to assess the mechanisms underlying a variety of ecological feedbacks involving fire and to improve representation of fire in a range of modelling contexts. Synthesis : As fire regimes and our relationships with fire continue to change, prioritizing these research areas will facilitate understanding of the ecological causes and consequences of future fires and rethinking fire management alternatives.}, number={5}, journal={JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY}, author={McLauchlan, Kendra K. and Higuera, Philip E. and Miesel, Jessica and Rogers, Brendan M. and Schweitzer, Jennifer and Shuman, Jacquelyn K. and Tepley, Alan J. and Varner, J. Morgan and Veblen, Thomas T. and Adalsteinsson, Solny A. and et al.}, year={2020}, month={Sep}, pages={2047–2069} }
 @article{petter_mairota_albrich_bebi_bruna_bugmann_haffenden_scheller_schmatz_seidl_et al._2020, title={How robust are future projections of forest landscape dynamics? Insights from a systematic comparison of four forest landscape models}, volume={134}, ISSN={["1873-6726"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104844}, abstractNote={Projections of landscape dynamics are uncertain, partly due to uncertainties in model formulations. However, quantitative comparative analyses of forest landscape models are lacking. We conducted a systematic comparison of all forest landscape models currently applied in temperate European forests (LandClim, TreeMig, LANDIS-II, iLand). We examined the uncertainty of model projections under several future climate, disturbance, and dispersal scenarios, and quantified uncertainties by variance partitioning. While projections under past climate conditions were in good agreement with observations, uncertainty under future climate conditions was high, with between-model biomass differences of up to 200 t ha−1. Disturbances strongly influenced landscape dynamics and contributed substantially to uncertainty in model projections (~25–40% of observed variance). Overall, model differences were the main source of uncertainty, explaining at least 50% of observed variance. We advocate a more rigorous and systematic model evaluation and calibration, and a broader use of ensemble projections to quantify uncertainties in future landscape dynamics.}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE}, author={Petter, Gunnar and Mairota, Paola and Albrich, Katharina and Bebi, Peter and Bruna, Josef and Bugmann, Harald and Haffenden, Austin and Scheller, Robert M. and Schmatz, Dirk R. and Seidl, Rupert and et al.}, year={2020}, month={Dec} }
 @article{maxwell_scheller_2020, title={Identifying Habitat Holdouts for High Elevation Tree Species Under Climate Change}, volume={2}, ISSN={["2624-893X"]}, DOI={10.3389/ffgc.2019.00094}, abstractNote={High elevation tree species are at great risk of decline under climate change—particularly in ranges below tree line where upslope movement is not possible —as warmer temperatures reduce snowpack and increase evaporative demand. Forecasting future locations of persistence is key to the conservation of those species. In this study, we had two major objectives: 1) to determine the potential decline in the extent of three montane conifers in California, USA, and 2) to assess how model resolution affected our estimates of decline and whether this could inform identifying potential holdouts. To do so, we forecast forest dynamics, disturbances, and future distributions of three montane conifer species under a changing climate in the Klamath Mountains using the LANDIS-II forest simulation model. Simulations were run under two grain sizes, 0.81 ha and 7.29 ha cells, and four GCMs representing three relative concentration pathways. The area occupied by the three montane conifers declined by the end of the 21st century, with only a few areas where the species were able to persist. Higher levels of climate forcing resulted in greater declines. Moreover, higher temperatures reduced tree regeneration although adult populations persisted despite the climate disequilibrium. Model resolution but did not alter the overall trend of decline. These species were projected to remain in only a few limited areas by the end of the century, but because these species are widely dispersed on the larger landscape, managers must consider trade-offs between local and broader conservation efforts and consider the current and potential range of these conifers throughout the west.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE}, author={Maxwell, Charles J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2020}, month={Jan} }
 @book{scheller_2020, title={Managing Landscapes for Change}, ISBN={9783030620400 9783030620417}, ISSN={1572-7742 1875-1210}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-62041-7}, DOI={10.1007/978-3-030-62041-7}, abstractNote={This authored book discusses the drivers of landscape change and the unique effects of these processes on different landscapes, addresses how humans are active agents of landscape change, and determines landscape trajectories to evaluate future management options.}, journal={Landscape Series}, publisher={Springer International Publishing}, author={Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2020} }
 @article{scheller_kretchun_hawbaker_henne_2019, title={A landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes}, volume={401}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.03.022}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.03.022}, abstractNote={Fire regimes are now recognized as the product of social processes whereby fire on any landscape is the product of human-generated drivers: climate change, historical patterns of vegetation manipulation, invasive species, active fire suppression, ongoing fuel management efforts, prescribed burning, and accidental ignitions. We developed a new fire model (Social-Climate Related Pyrogenic Processes and their Landscape Effects: SCRPPLE) that emphasizes the social dimensions of fire and enables simulation of fuel-treatment effects, fire suppression, and prescribed fires. Fire behavior was parameterized with daily fire weather, ignition, and fire-boundary data. SCRPPLE was initially parameterized and developed for the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) in California and Nevada, USA although its behavior is general and could be applied worldwide. We demonstrate the behavior and utility of our model via four simple scenarios that emphasize the social dimensions of fire regimes: a) Recent Historical: simulated recent historical patterns of lightning and accidental fires and current patterns of fire suppression, b) Natural-Fire-Regime: simulated wildfire without suppression, accidental fires, or prescribed fires, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical, c) Enhanced Suppression: simulated a doubling of the effectiveness of suppression, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical, and d) Reduced Accidental Ignitions: within which the number of accidental fires was reduced by half, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical. Results indicate that SCRPPLE can recreate past fire regimes, including size, intensity, and locations. Furthermore, our results indicate that the ‘Enhanced Suppression’ and ‘Reduced Accidental Ignitions’ scenarios had similar capacity to reduce fire and related tree mortality over time, suggesting that within the broad outlines of the scenarios, reducing accidental fires can be as effective as substantially increasing resources for suppression.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Scheller, Robert and Kretchun, Alec and Hawbaker, Todd J. and Henne, Paul D.}, year={2019}, month={Jun}, pages={85–93} }
 @article{lucash_ruckert_nicholas_scheller_smithwick_2019, title={Complex interactions among successional trajectories and climate govern spatial resilience after severe windstorms in central Wisconsin, USA}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-019-00929-1}, number={12}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Ruckert, Kelsey L. and Nicholas, Robert E. and Scheller, Robert M. and Smithwick, Erica A. H.}, year={2019}, month={Dec}, pages={2897–2915} }
 @article{flanagan_bhotika_hawley_starr_wiesner_hiers_o'brien_goodrick_callaham_scheller_et al._2019, title={Quantifying carbon and species dynamics under different fire regimes in a southeastern US pineland}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.2772}, abstractNote={Abstract Forests have a prominent role in carbon sequestration and storage. Climate change and anthropogenic forcing have altered the dominant characteristics of some forested ecosystems through changes to their disturbance regimes, particularly fire. Ecosystems that historically burned frequently, like pinelands in the southeastern United States, risk changes in their structure and function when the fire regime they require is altered. Although the carbon storage potential in an unburned southeastern U.S. forest would be larger, this scenario is unrealistic due to the likelihood of wildfire. Additionally, fire exclusion can have negative consequences on these forests health, biodiversity, and species endemism. There is a need, specifically for the southeast, to estimate carbon and species dynamics based on the differences between various fire regimes, and particularly the differences between prescribed fire and wildfire. These are important factors to consider given that prescribed fire is a common tool used in the southeast, and wildfires are ever more present. Field data from an experimental Pinus palustris (longleaf pine) forest of southwest Georgia were used to parametrize the forest landscape model LANDIS ‐ II . The model simulated how carbon and species dynamics differ under a fire exclusion, a prescribed fire, and multiple wildfire scenarios. All scenarios except fire exclusion resulted in net emissions to the atmosphere, but prescribed fire produced the least carbon emissions from fire and maintained the most stable aboveground biomass compared to wildfire scenarios. Removing fire for approximately a century was necessary to obtain an average stand‐level biomass greater than that of prescribed fire and net emissions less than that of prescribed fire. The prescribed fire scenario produced a longleaf pine‐dominated forest, the exclusion scenario converted to predominantly oak species Quercus virginiana (live oak), Q. stellata (post oak), and Q. margaretta (sand post oak), while scenarios with intermediate wildfire regimes supported a mix of other fire‐facilitator hardwoods and pine species, such as Q. incana (bluejack oak) and Pinus elliotti (slash pine). Overall, this study supports prescribed fire regimes in southeastern U.S. pinelands to both minimize carbon emissions and preserve native biodiversity.}, number={6}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Flanagan, Steven A. and Bhotika, Smriti and Hawley, Christie and Starr, Gregory and Wiesner, Susanne and Hiers, J. Kevin and O'Brien, Joseph J. and Goodrick, Scott and Callaham, Mac A., Jr. and Scheller, Robert M. and et al.}, year={2019}, month={Jun} }
 @article{krofcheck_loudermilk_hiers_scheller_hurteau_2019, title={The effects of management on long-term carbon stability in a southeastern US forest matrix under extreme fire weather}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.2631}, abstractNote={Abstract How fire interacts with an ecosystem is driven by forest structure, fuel bed heterogeneity, topography, and weather. The juxtaposition of two distinct vegetation types with divergent properties can further influence the effects of fire on an ecosystem. In the southeastern United States, pine flatwoods and hardwood–cypress swamps are distinct ecosystems that can be geographically intermixed as a function of elevation, affecting how fires move across the landscape. We sought to understand the consequence of extreme fire weather on landscape wildfire severity and biomass accumulation taking into consideration the spatial configuration of the two ecosystems and fuels reduction management strategies. We used a spatially explicit growth and succession model at the landscape scale to simulate a suite of management activities employed at the Osceola National Forest (Florida, USA), which are aimed at mitigating severe wildfire, maintaining ecosystem function, and producing wood fiber. We found that with extreme fire weather, hardwood–cypress swamps were more available to burn because of drier and hotter conditions, increasing the risk of high‐severity fire in the adjacent pine flatwoods. This reduced landscape aboveground biomass stability relative to contemporary fire weather, with an end‐of‐simulation range from 59.2 to 69.2 Mg C/ha. When we incorporated targeted mechanical thinning and prescribed burning into the simulations under extreme fire weather, the landscape showed higher aboveground biomass stability, with an end‐of‐simulation range of 70.9–72.8 Mg C/ha. We found that targeting mechanical thinning treatments to the interface of the hardwood–cypress swamps and maintaining the pine flatwoods with prescribed burning constrained the spread of high‐severity wildfire at the landscape scale. These results highlight the importance of understanding how changes to fire weather severity may alter fire regimes and consequently carbon stability of these highly interspersed yet functionally dissimilar ecosystems.}, number={3}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Krofcheck, D. J. and Loudermilk, E. L. and Hiers, J. K. and Scheller, R. M. and Hurteau, M. D.}, year={2019}, month={Mar} }
 @article{cassell_scheller_lucash_hurteau_loudermilk_2019, title={Widespread severe wildfires under climate change lead to increased forest homogeneity in dry mixed-conifer forests}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.2934}, abstractNote={Abstract Climate warming in the western United States is causing changes to the wildfire regime in mixed‐conifer forests. Rising temperatures, longer fire seasons, increased drought, as well as fire suppression and changes in land use, have led to greater and more severe wildfire activity, all contributing to altered forest composition over the past century. To understand future interactions among climate, wildfire, and vegetation in a fire‐prone landscape in the southern Blue Mountains of central Oregon, we used a spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate forest and fire dynamics under current management practices and two projected climate scenarios. The results suggest that wildfires will become more frequent, more extensive, and more severe under projected climate than contemporary climate. Furthermore, projected climate change generated a 20% increase in the number of extreme fire years (years with at least 40,000 ha burned). This caused large shifts in tree species composition, characterized by a decline in the sub‐alpine species ( Abies lasiocarpa , Picea engelmannii , Pinus albicaulis) and increases in lower‐elevation species ( Pinus ponderosa , Abies grandis ), resulting in forest homogenization across the elevational gradient. This modeling study suggests that climate‐driven increases in fire activity and severity will make high‐elevation species vulnerable to decline and will reduce landscape heterogeneity. These results underscore the need for forest managers to actively consider climate change, altered fire regimes, and projected declines in sub‐alpine species in their long‐term management plans.}, number={11}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Cassell, Brooke A. and Scheller, Robert M. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Hurteau, Matthew D. and Loudermilk, E. Louise}, year={2019}, month={Nov} }
 @article{spies_scheller_bolte_2018, title={Adaptation in fire-prone landscapes: interactions of policies, management, wildfire, and social networks in Oregon, USA}, volume={23}, ISSN={["1708-3087"]}, DOI={10.5751/es-10079-230211}, abstractNote={Spies, T. A., R. M. Scheller, and J. P. Bolte. 2018. Adaptation in fire-prone landscapes: interactions of policies, management, wildfire, and social networks in Oregon, USA. Ecology and Society 23(2):11. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10079-230211}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, author={Spies, Thomas A. and Scheller, Robert M. and Bolte, John P.}, year={2018} }
 @article{luintel_bluffstone_scheller_2018, title={An assessment of collective action drivers of carbon storage in Nepalese forest commons}, volume={90}, ISSN={1389-9341}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.FORPOL.2018.01.012}, DOI={10.1016/J.FORPOL.2018.01.012}, abstractNote={Abstract Decentralized forestry has evolved as a strategy for the management of forests in many developing countries and key institutional factors driving forest collective action have also been identified. We analyzed 130 Nepalese forest commons to determine how key forest collective action variables are associated with carbon storage. As expected, we find household participation in forest management and public audit have favorable implications for carbon storage. However, we also find conservation duration, communities' ability to modify rules and existence of penalty system have constraining, and mutual trust have no or neutral implications for carbon storage. These findings indicate that better collective action does not necessarily store additional carbon. If forest commons in developing countries are to contribute to global climate change initiatives, such as the United Nation's program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD +), our findings suggest the need for dedicated policies and programs to create additional incentives.}, journal={Forest Policy and Economics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Luintel, Harisharan and Bluffstone, Randall A. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2018}, month={May}, pages={39–47} }
 @article{serra-diaz_maxwell_lucash_scheller_laflower_miller_tepley_epstein_anderson-teixeira_thompson_2018, title={Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century}, volume={8}, ISSN={["2045-2322"]}, DOI={10.1038/s41598-018-24642-2}, abstractNote={The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath forest landscape (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) is currently dominated by high biomass, biodiverse temperate coniferous forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability (e.g. growth, regeneration and fire tolerance). Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that about one-third of the Klamath forest landscape (500,000 ha) could transition from conifer-dominated forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by increased fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were widespread under the warmer climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) but were surprisingly prevalent under the climate of 1949-2010, reflecting the joint influences of recent warming trends and the legacy of fire suppression that may have enhanced conifer dominance. Our results demonstrate that major forest ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.}, journal={SCIENTIFIC REPORTS}, author={Serra-Diaz, Josep M. and Maxwell, Charles and Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Laflower, Danelle M. and Miller, Adam D. and Tepley, Alan J. and Epstein, Howard E. and Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J. and Thompson, Jonathan R.}, year={2018}, month={Apr} }
 @article{scheller_parajuli_2018, title={Forest Management for Climate Change in New England and the Klamath Ecoregions: Motivations, Practices, and Barriers}, volume={9}, ISSN={["1999-4907"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.3390/f9100626}, DOI={10.3390/f9100626}, abstractNote={Understanding perceptions and attitudes of forest managers toward climate change and climate adaptive forest management is crucial, as they are expected to implement changes to forest resource management. We assessed the perceptions of forest managers toward climate adaptive forest management practices through a survey of forest managers working in private firms and public agencies in New England and the Klamath ecoregion (northern California and southwestern Oregon). We analyzed the motivations, actions, and potential barriers to action of forest managers toward climate adaptive forest management practices. Results suggest that managing for natural regeneration is the most common climate adaptive forest management approach considered by forest managers in both regions. Lack of information about the best strategies for reducing climate change risks, lack of education and awareness among the clients, and perceived client costs were forest managers’ primary barriers to climate adaptive management. Our findings suggest useful insights toward the policy and program design in climate adaptive forest management for both areas.}, number={10}, journal={FORESTS}, publisher={MDPI AG}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Parajuli, Rajan}, year={2018}, month={Oct} }
 @article{kruhlov_thom_chaskovskyy_keeton_scheller_2018, title={Future forest landscapes of the Carpathians: vegetation and carbon dynamics under climate change}, volume={18}, ISSN={["1436-378X"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10113-018-1296-8}, number={5}, journal={REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE}, author={Kruhlov, Ivan and Thom, Dominik and Chaskovskyy, Oleh and Keeton, William S. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2018}, month={Jun}, pages={1555–1567} }
 @article{lucash_scheller_sturtevant_gustafson_kretchun_foster_2018, title={More than the sum of its parts: how disturbance interactions shape forest dynamics under climate change}, volume={9}, ISSN={2150-8925}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ECS2.2293}, DOI={10.1002/ECS2.2293}, abstractNote={Abstract Interactions among disturbances are seldom quantified, and how they will be affected by climate change is even more uncertain. In this study, we sought to better understand how interactions among disturbances shift under climate change by applying a process‐based landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS‐II) to project disturbance regimes under climate change in north‐central Minnesota, USA. Specifically, we (1) contrasted mortality rates and the extent of disturbance for four individual (single) disturbance regimes (fire, insects, wind, or forest management) vs. all four disturbance regimes operating simultaneously (concurrent) under multiple climate change scenarios and (2) determined how climate change interacts with single and concurrent disturbance regimes to affect carbon stocks and forest composition. Under single disturbance regimes, we found that climate change amplifies mortality, but did not substantially change the overall extent of disturbances. Tree mortality under the concurrent disturbance regime scenario was less than the sum of all single disturbance regimes, providing evidence of significant negative feedbacks among disturbances, particularly under climate change. Finally, we found that climate change was the most critical driver of area harvested (via shifts in species composition), soil carbon, species composition, and diversity, while the disturbance regime (i.e., single or concurrent) had a larger influence on aboveground carbon and the relative dominance of conifers vs. hardwoods. In conclusion, our simulations suggest that disturbance interactions will be strongly mediated by climate change and will produce increasingly negative feedbacks, preventing worst‐case disturbance outcomes. Our results underscore the importance of running simulations with multiple disturbances on the landscape concurrently rather than focusing on any one or two disturbances.}, number={6}, journal={Ecosphere}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Kretchun, Alec M. and Foster, Jane R.}, year={2018}, month={Jun}, pages={e02293} }
 @article{krofcheck_hurteau_scheller_loudermilk_2018, title={Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests}, volume={24}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000423994700044&KeyUID=WOS:000423994700044}, DOI={10.1111/gcb.13913}, abstractNote={Abstract In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels reduction approaches that include mechanical thinning followed by regular prescribed fire are one approach to restore the ability of the ecosystem to tolerate episodic fire and still sequester C. Yet, the spatial extent of the area requiring treatment makes widespread treatment implementation unlikely. We sought to determine if a priori knowledge of where uncharacteristic wildfire is most probable could be used to optimize the placement of fuels treatments in a Sierra Nevada watershed. We developed two treatment placement strategies: the naive strategy, based on treating all operationally available area and the optimized strategy, which only treated areas where crown‐killing fires were most probable. We ran forecast simulations using projected climate data through 2,100 to determine how the treatments differed in terms of C sequestration, fire severity, and C emissions relative to a no‐management scenario. We found that in both the short (20 years) and long (100 years) term, both management scenarios increased C stability, reduced burn severity, and consequently emitted less C as a result of wildfires than no‐management. Across all metrics, both scenarios performed the same, but the optimized treatment required significantly less C removal (naive=0.42 Tg C, optimized=0.25 Tg C) to achieve the same treatment efficacy. Given the extent of western forests in need of fire restoration, efficiently allocating treatments is a critical task if we are going to restore adaptive capacity in frequent‐fire forests.}, number={2}, journal={Global Change Biology}, author={Krofcheck, Daniel J. and Hurteau, Matthew D. and Scheller, Robert M. and Loudermilk, E. Louise}, year={2018}, pages={729–737} }
 @article{scheller_2018, title={The challenges of forest modeling given climate change}, volume={33}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-018-0689-x}, number={9}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2018}, month={Sep}, pages={1481–1488} }
 @article{luintel_bluffstone_scheller_2018, title={The effects of the Nepal community forestry program on biodiversity conservation and carbon storage}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0199526}, abstractNote={Approximately 15.5% of global forest is controlled by ~1 billion local people and the area under community control is increasing. However, there is limited empirical evidence as to whether community control is effective in providing critical global ecosystem services, such as biodiversity conservation and carbon storage. We assess the effectiveness of one example of community-controlled forest, Nepal's Community Forestry Program (CFP), at providing biodiversity conservation and carbon storage. Using data from 620 randomly selected CFP and non-CFP forest plots, we apply a robust matching method based on covariates to estimate whether CFPs are associated with greater biodiversity conservation or carbon storage. Our results reveal a significant positive effect of CFP on biodiversity, which is robust against the influence of unobserved covariates. Our results also suggest a significant negative effect of the CFP on aboveground tree and sapling carbon (AGC) at the national scale (-15.11 Mg C ha-1). However, the CFP has a mixed effect on carbon across geographic and topographic regions and in forests with different canopy covers. Though there were no significant effects of the CFP on AGC at lower altitudes, in the Terai or hill regions, and under closed canopies, there were positive effects in open canopies (25.84 Mg C ha-1) at lower slopes (25.51 Mg C ha-1) and negative effects at higher altitudes (-22.81 Mg C ha-1) and higher slopes (-17.72 Mg C ha-1). Our sensitivity analysis revealed that the positive effects are robust to unobserved covariates, which is not true for the negative results. In aggregate, our results demonstrate that CFP can be an effective forest management strategy to contribute to global ecosystem services such as biodiversity, and to a lesser extent carbon.}, number={6}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Luintel, Harisharan and Bluffstone, Randall A. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2018}, month={Jun} }
 @article{klimaszewski-patterson_weisberg_mensing_scheller_2018, title={Using Paleolandscape Modeling to Investigate the Impact of Native American-Set Fires on Pre-Columbian Forests in the Southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA}, volume={108}, ISSN={["2469-4460"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2018.1470922}, DOI={10.1080/24694452.2018.1470922}, abstractNote={Ethnographic accounts document widespread use of low-intensity surface fires by California's Native Americans to manage terrestrial resources, yet the effects of such practices on forest composition and structure remain largely unknown. Although numerous paleoenvironmental studies debate whether proxy interpretations indicate climatic or anthropogenic drivers of landscape change, available data sources (e.g., pollen, charcoal) are generally insufficient to resolve anthropogenic impacts and do not allow for hypothesis testing. We use a modeling approach with LANDIS-II, a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, to test whether the addition of Native American–set surface fires was necessary to approximate vegetation change as reconstructed from fossil pollen. We use an existing 1,600-year pollen and charcoal record from Holey Meadow, Sequoia National Forest, California, as the empirical data set to which we compared modeled results of climatic and anthropogenic fire regimes. We found that the addition of anthropogenic burning best approximated fossil pollen–reconstructed vegetation change, particularly during periods of prolonged cooler, wetter periods coinciding with greater regional Native American activity (1550–1050 and 750–100 cal yr BP). For lightning-caused wildfires to statistically approximate the pollen record required at least twenty times more ignitions and 870 percent more area burned annually during the Little Ice Age (750–100 cal yr BP) than observed during the modern period (AD 1985–2006), a level of natural fire increase we consider highly improbable. These results demonstrate that (1) anthropogenic burning was likely an important cause of pre-Columbian forest structure at the site and (2) dynamic landscape models provide a valuable method for testing hypotheses of paleoenvironmental change.}, number={6}, journal={ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOGRAPHERS}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Klimaszewski-Patterson, Anna and Weisberg, Peter J. and Mensing, Scott A. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2018}, month={Nov}, pages={1635–1654} }
 @article{loudermilk_scheller_weisberg_kretchun_2017, title={Bending the carbon curve: fire management for carbon resilience under climate change}, volume={32}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000404677500011&KeyUID=WOS:000404677500011}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-016-0447-x}, abstractNote={Forest landscapes are increasingly managed for fire resilience, particularly in the western US which has recently experienced drought and widespread, high-severity wildfires. Fuel reduction treatments have been effective where fires coincide with treated areas. Fuel treatments also have the potential to reduce drought-mortality if tree density is uncharacteristically high, and to increase long-term carbon storage by reducing high-severity fire probability. Assess whether fuel treatments reduce fire intensity and spread and increase carbon storage under climate change. We used a simulation modeling approach that couples a landscape model of forest disturbance and succession with an ecosystem model of carbon dynamics (Century), to quantify the interacting effects of climate change, fuel treatments and wildfire for carbon storage potential in a mixed-conifer forest in the western USA. Our results suggest that fuel treatments have the potential to ‘bend the C curve’, maintaining carbon resilience despite climate change and climate-related changes to the fire regime. Simulated fuel treatments resulted in reduced fire spread and severity. There was partial compensation of C lost during fuel treatments with increased growth of residual stock due to greater available soil water, as well as a shift in species composition to more drought- and fire-tolerant Pinus jeffreyi at the expense of shade-tolerant, fire-susceptible Abies concolor. Forest resilience to global change can be achieved through management that reduces drought stress and supports the establishment and dominance of tree species that are more fire- and drought-resistant, however, achieving a net C gain from fuel treatments may take decades.}, number={7}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Loudermilk, E. L. and Scheller, R. M. and Weisberg, P. J. and Kretchun, Alec}, year={2017}, month={Jul}, pages={1461–1472} }
 @article{creutzburg_scheller_lucash_leduc_johnson_2017, title={Forest management scenarios in a changing climate: trade-offs between carbon, timber, and old forest}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000395634300015&KeyUID=WOS:000395634300015}, DOI={10.1002/eap.1460}, abstractNote={Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30-41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11-15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Creutzburg, Megan K. and Scheller, Robert M. and Lucash, Melissa S. and LeDuc, Stephen D. and Johnson, Mark G.}, year={2017}, pages={503–518} }
 @article{scheller_kretchun_loudermilk_hurteau_weisberg_skinner_2017, title={Interactions Among Fuel Management, Species Composition, Bark Beetles, and Climate Change and the Potential Effects on Forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin}, volume={21}, ISSN={1432-9840 1435-0629}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/S10021-017-0175-3}, DOI={10.1007/S10021-017-0175-3}, abstractNote={Climate-driven increases in wildfires, drought conditions, and insect outbreaks are critical threats to forest carbon stores. In particular, bark beetles are important disturbance agents although their long-term interactions with future climate change are poorly understood. Droughts and the associated moisture deficit contribute to the onset of bark beetle outbreaks although outbreak extent and severity is dependent upon the density of host trees, wildfire, and forest management. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate change and bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystem carbon dynamics over the next century in a western US forest. Specifically, we hypothesized that (a) bark beetle outbreaks under climate change would reduce net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) and increase uncertainty and (b) these effects could be ameliorated by fuels management. We also examined the specific tree species dynamics—competition and release—that determined NECB response to bark beetle outbreaks. Our study area was the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB), CA and NV, USA, an area of diverse forest types encompassing steep elevation and climatic gradients and representative of mixed-conifer forests throughout the western United States. We simulated climate change, bark beetles, wildfire, and fuels management using a landscape-scale stochastic model of disturbance and succession. We simulated the period 2010–2100 using downscaled climate projections. Recurring droughts generated conditions conducive to large-scale outbreaks; the resulting large and sustained outbreaks significantly increased the probability of LTB forests becoming C sources over decadal time scales, with slower-than-anticipated landscape-scale recovery. Tree species composition was substantially altered with a reduction in functional redundancy and productivity. Results indicate heightened uncertainty due to the synergistic influences of climate change and interacting disturbances. Our results further indicate that current fuel management practices will not be effective at reducing landscape-scale outbreak mortality. Our results provide critical insights into the interaction of drivers (bark beetles, wildfire, fuel management) that increase the risk of C loss and shifting community composition if bark beetle outbreaks become more frequent.}, number={4}, journal={Ecosystems}, publisher={Springer Nature}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Kretchun, Alec M. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Hurteau, Matthew D. and Weisberg, Peter J. and Skinner, Carl}, year={2017}, month={Aug}, pages={643–656} }
 @article{krofcheck_hurteau_scheller_loudermilk_2017, title={Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada}, volume={8}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000396526300031&KeyUID=WOS:000396526300031}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.1663}, abstractNote={Abstract Climate change in the western United States has increased the frequency of extreme fire weather events and is projected to increase the area burned by wildfire in the coming decades. This changing fire regime, coupled with increased high‐severity fire risk from a legacy of fire exclusion, could destabilize forest carbon (C), decrease net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and consequently reduce the ability of forests to regulate climate through C sequestration. While management options for minimizing the risk of high‐severity fire exist, little is known about the longer‐term carbon consequences of these actions in the context of continued extreme fire weather events. Our goal was to compare the impacts of extreme wildfire events on carbon stocks and fluxes in a watershed in the Sierra National Forest. We ran simulations to model wildfire under contemporary and extreme fire weather conditions, and test how three management scenarios (no‐management, thin‐only, thin and maintenance burning) influence fire severity, forest C stocks and fluxes, and wildfire C emissions. We found that the effects of treatment on wildfire under contemporary fire weather were minimal, and management conferred neither significant reduction in fire severity nor increases in C stocks. However, under extreme fire weather, the thin and maintenance burning scenario decreased mean fire severity by 25%, showed significantly greater C stability, and unlike the no‐management and thin‐only management options, the thin and maintenance burning scenario showed no decrease in NEE relative to the contemporary fire weather scenarios. Further, under extreme fire weather conditions, wildfire C emissions were lowest in the thin and maintenance burning scenario, (reduction of 13.7 Mg C/ha over the simulation period) even when taking into account the C costs associated with prescribed burning. Including prescribed burning in thinning operations may be critical to maintaining C stocks and reducing C emissions in the future where extreme fire weather events are more frequent.}, number={1}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Krofcheck, Daniel J. and Hurteau, Matthew D. and Scheller, Robert M. and Loudermilk, E. Louise}, year={2017}, month={Jan} }
 @article{lucash_scheller_gustafson_sturtevant_2017, title={Spatial resilience of forested landscapes under climate change and management}, volume={32}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000400233800003&KeyUID=WOS:000400233800003}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-017-0501-3}, abstractNote={Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change. Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota. Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years. Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed. Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience.}, number={5}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Sturtevant, Brian R.}, year={2017}, month={May}, pages={953–969} }
 @article{luintel_bluffstone_scheller_adhikari_2017, title={The Effect of the Nepal Community Forestry Program on Equity in Benefit Sharing}, volume={26}, ISSN={["1552-5465"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000407600800003&KeyUID=WOS:000407600800003}, DOI={10.1177/1070496517707305}, abstractNote={We assessed the effectiveness of Nepalese Community Forestry Program (CFP) in increasing local perceptions of equity in benefit sharing. Our aim is to inform emerging forest policy that aims to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity conservation, and address poverty and livelihood needs. We collected data from 1,300 households from nationally representative samples of 65 CFP communities and 65 non-CFP communities. By using a robust method of covariates matching, we demonstrate the unique and positive effect of the CFP on perception of equity in benefit sharing at national level and among poor, Dalits, indigenous and women-headed households and in the hills (except Terai). Our results suggest the need to continue the current benefit-sharing practices in CFP except in the Terai, where such practices need to be reviewed. However, caution should be taken in implementing emerging carbon-focused forestry so that it does not alter the CFP management sufficiently to conflict with equity goals and upend the generally positive effects on equity.}, number={3}, journal={JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT & DEVELOPMENT}, author={Luintel, Harisharan and Bluffstone, Randall A. and Scheller, Robert M. and Adhikari, Bhim}, year={2017}, month={Sep}, pages={297–321} }
 @article{creutzburg_scheller_lucash_evers_leduc_johnson_2016, title={Bioenergy harvest, climate change, and forest carbon in the Oregon Coast Range}, volume={8}, ISSN={["1757-1707"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000370492100009&KeyUID=WOS:000370492100009}, DOI={10.1111/gcbb.12255}, abstractNote={Abstract Forests provide important ecological, economic, and social services, and recent interest has emerged in the potential for using residue from timber harvest as a source of renewable woody bioenergy. The long‐term consequences of such intensive harvest are unclear, particularly as forests face novel climatic conditions over the next century. We used a simulation model to project the long‐term effects of management and climate change on above‐ and belowground forest carbon storage in a watershed in northwestern Oregon. The multi‐ownership watershed has a diverse range of current management practices, including little‐to‐no harvesting on federal lands, short‐rotation clear‐cutting on industrial land, and a mix of practices on private nonindustrial land. We simulated multiple management scenarios, varying the rate and intensity of harvest, combined with projections of climate change. Our simulations project a wide range of total ecosystem carbon storage with varying harvest rate, ranging from a 45% increase to a 16% decrease in carbon compared to current levels. Increasing the intensity of harvest for bioenergy caused a 2–3% decrease in ecosystem carbon relative to conventional harvest practices. Soil carbon was relatively insensitive to harvest rotation and intensity, and accumulated slowly regardless of harvest regime. Climate change reduced carbon accumulation in soil and detrital pools due to increasing heterotrophic respiration, and had small but variable effects on aboveground live carbon and total ecosystem carbon. Overall, we conclude that current levels of ecosystem carbon storage are maintained in part due to substantial portions of the landscape (federal and some private lands) remaining unharvested or lightly managed. Increasing the intensity of harvest for bioenergy on currently harvested land, however, led to a relatively small reduction in the ability of forests to store carbon. Climate change is unlikely to substantially alter carbon storage in these forests, absent shifts in disturbance regimes.}, number={2}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY BIOENERGY}, author={Creutzburg, Megan K. and Scheller, Robert M. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Evers, Louisa B. and Leduc, Stephen D. and Johnson, Mark G.}, year={2016}, month={Mar}, pages={357–370} }
 @article{dymond_beukema_nitschke_coates_scheller_2016, title={Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1726-4189"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000377274100013&KeyUID=WOS:000377274100013}, DOI={10.5194/bg-13-1933-2016}, abstractNote={Abstract. Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper–Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.}, number={6}, journal={BIOGEOSCIENCES}, author={Dymond, Caren C. and Beukema, Sarah and Nitschke, Craig R. and Coates, K. David and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2016}, pages={1933–1947} }
 @article{kretchun_loudermilk_scheller_hurteau_belmecheri_2016, title={Climate and bark beetle effects on forest productivity - linking dendroecology with forest landscape modeling}, volume={46}, ISSN={["1208-6037"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000380902500005&KeyUID=WOS:000380902500005}, DOI={10.1139/cjfr-2016-0103}, abstractNote={In forested systems throughout the world, climate influences tree growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP). The effects of extreme climate events (i.e., drought) on ANPP can be compounded by biotic factors (e.g., insect outbreaks). Understanding the contribution of each of these influences on growth requires information at multiple spatial scales and is essential for understanding regional forest response to changing climate. The mixed conifer forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin, California and Nevada, provide an opportunity to analyze biotic and abiotic influences on ANPP. Our objective was to evaluate the influence of moisture stress (climatic water deficit, CWD) and bark beetles on basin-wide ANPP from 1987 to 2006, estimated through tree core increments and a landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II). Tree ring data revealed that ANPP increased throughout this period and had a nonlinear relationship to water demand. Simulation model results showed that despite increased complexity, simulations that include moderate moisture sensitivity and bark beetle outbreaks most closely approximated the field-derived ANPP∼CWD relationship. Although bark beetle outbreaks and episodic drought-induced mortality events are often correlated, decoupling them within a simulation model offers insight into assessing model performance, as well as examining how each contributes to total declines in productivity.}, number={8}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH}, author={Kretchun, Alec M. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Scheller, Robert M. and Hurteau, Matthew D. and Belmecheri, Soumaya}, year={2016}, month={Aug}, pages={1026–1034} }
 @article{mayer_buma_davis_gagne_loudermilk_scheller_schmiegelow_wiersma_franklin_2016, title={How Landscape Ecology Informs Global Land-Change Science and Policy}, volume={66}, ISSN={["1525-3244"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000377157000005&KeyUID=WOS:000377157000005}, DOI={10.1093/biosci/biw035}, abstractNote={Landscape ecology is a discipline that explicitly considers the influence of time and space on the environmental patterns we observe and the processes that create them. Although many of the topics studied in landscape ecology have public policy implications, three are of particular concern: climate change; land use–land cover change (LULCC); and a particular type of LULCC, urbanization. These processes are interrelated, because LULCC is driven by both human activities (e.g., agricultural expansion and urban sprawl) and climate change (e.g., desertification). Climate change, in turn, will affect the way humans use landscapes. Interactions among these drivers of ecosystem change can have destabilizing and accelerating feedback, with consequences for human societies from local to global scales. These challenges require landscape ecologists to engage policymakers and practitioners in seeking long-term solutions, informed by an understanding of opportunities to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic drivers on ecosystems and adapt to new ecological realities.}, number={6}, journal={BIOSCIENCE}, author={Mayer, Audrey L. and Buma, Brian and Davis, Amelie and Gagne, Sara A. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Scheller, Robert M. and Schmiegelow, Fiona K. A. and Wiersma, Yolanda F. and Franklin, Janet}, year={2016}, month={Jun}, pages={458–469} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2016, title={Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests (USA)}, volume={31}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000372319400014&KeyUID=WOS:000372319400014}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-015-0273-6}, number={3}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2016}, month={Mar}, pages={669–686} }
 @book{gustafson_m.s. lucash_h. jenny_k. barrett_sturtevant_2016, title={Seeing the future impacts of climate change and forest management: a landscape visualization system for forest managers}, volume={NRS-164}, journal={USFS General Technical Report}, author={Gustafson, E.G. and M.S. Lucash, J. Liem and H. Jenny, R.M. Scheller and K. Barrett and Sturtevant, B.R.}, year={2016} }
 @article{scheller_kretchun_van tuyl_clark_lucash_hom_2016, title={Supplement 1. Input data required for running simulations in LANDIS-II.}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2017040010799274&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2017040010799274}, DOI={10.6084/m9.figshare.3563787.v1}, journal={Figshare}, author={Scheller, Robert M and Kretchun, Alec M and Van Tuyl, Steve and Clark, Kenneth L and Lucash, Melissa S and Hom, John}, year={2016} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity}, volume={25}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000360813100018&KeyUID=WOS:000360813100018}, DOI={10.1890/14-0738.1}, abstractNote={Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate‐suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS‐II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2‐ha cell resolution and five‐year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low‐ and high‐emission futures. We simulated a low‐emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high‐emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business‐as‐usual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five‐year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass).}, number={6}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2015}, month={Sep}, pages={1653–1668} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={Data from: Climate suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2015122006956601&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2015122006956601}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{serra-diaz_scheller_syphard_franklin_2015, title={Disturbance and climate microrefugia mediate tree range shifts during climate change}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000355657200007&KeyUID=WOS:000355657200007}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-015-0173-9}, number={6}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Serra-Diaz, Josep M. and Scheller, Robert M. and Syphard, Alexandra D. and Franklin, Janet}, year={2015}, month={Jul}, pages={1039–1053} }
 @article{yang_weisberg_shinneman_dilts_earnst_scheller_2015, title={Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000355657200008&KeyUID=WOS:000355657200008}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-015-0160-1}, abstractNote={Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5 °C increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales.}, number={6}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Yang, Jian and Weisberg, Peter J. and Shinneman, Douglas J. and Dilts, Thomas E. and Earnst, Susan L. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2015}, month={Jul}, pages={1055–1073} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MI_DYNAMIC_INPUTS_COMBINED_CLIMATES}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021348&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021348}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/6}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MI_biomass-succession-all_climates_combined}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021339&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021339}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/2}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MI_harvest_COMBINED}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021345&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021345}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/4}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MN Biomass Succession files}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021338&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021338}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/1}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MN_DYNAMIC_INPUTS_COMBINED_CLIMATES}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021336&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021336}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/5}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={MN_Harvest_COMBINED}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021342&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021342}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/3}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @article{halsey_zielinski_scheller_2015, title={Modeling predator habitat to enhance reintroduction planning}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000357293800008&KeyUID=WOS:000357293800008}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-015-0177-5}, abstractNote={The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a self-sustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus). To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable for reintroduction. Using camera survey data, we modeled the association between bobcat presence and environmental features using a classification tree. We applied this model to a spatial analysis of fisher habitat and identified reintroduction areas in the southern Washington Cascade Range. The classification tree predicted bobcat detection based on elevation and mean tree diameter. The final model identified fisher reintroduction locations primarily in or near existing wilderness areas. Fisher habitat areas identified considering both habitat and predation risk differed from those identified without considering predation. Our spatial approach is unique among fisher reintroduction plans by accounting for both resource requirements and risk of predation. It can be used as a template for future reintroduction efforts in other regions and for other species. Using similar models to refine population management and reintroduction should improve the probability of successful population establishment and stability.}, number={7}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Halsey, Shiloh M. and Zielinski, William J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2015}, month={Aug}, pages={1257–1271} }
 @article{yang_weisberg_dilts_loudermilk_scheller_stanton_skinner_2015, title={Predicting wildfire occurrence distribution with spatial point process models and its uncertainty assessment: a case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA}, volume={24}, ISSN={["1448-5516"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000354808600010&KeyUID=WOS:000354808600010}, DOI={10.1071/wf14001}, abstractNote={Strategic fire and fuel management planning benefits from detailed understanding of how wildfire occurrences are distributed spatially under current climate, and from predictive models of future wildfire occurrence given climate change scenarios. In this study, we fitted historical wildfire occurrence data from 1986 to 2009 to a suite of spatial point process (SPP) models with a model averaging approach. We then predicted human- and lightning-caused wildfire occurrence over the 2010–2100 period in the Lake Tahoe Basin, a forested watershed in the western US with an extensive wildland–urban interface. The purpose of our research was threefold, including (1) to quantify the influence of biophysical and anthropogenic explanatory variables on spatial patterns of wildfire occurrence, (2) to model current and future spatial distribution of wildfire occurrence under two carbon emission scenarios (A2 and B1), and (3) to assess prediction uncertainty due to model selection. We found that climate variables exerted stronger influences on lightning-caused fires, with climatic water deficit the most important climatic variable for both human- and lightning-caused fires. The recent spatial distribution of wildfire hotspots was mainly constrained by anthropogenic factors because most wildfires were human-caused. The future distribution of hotspots (i.e. places with high fire occurrence density), however, was predicted to shift to higher elevations and ridge tops due to a more rapid increase of lightning-caused fires. Landscape-scale mean fire occurrence density, averaged from our top SPP models with similar empirical support, was predicted to increase by 210% and 70% of the current level under the A2 and B1 scenarios. However, individual top SPP models could lead to substantially different predictions including a small decrease, a moderate increase, and a very large increase, demonstrating the critical need to account for model uncertainty.}, number={3}, journal={INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE}, author={Yang, Jian and Weisberg, Peter J. and Dilts, Thomas E. and Loudermilk, E. Louise and Scheller, Robert M. and Stanton, Alison and Skinner, Carl}, year={2015}, pages={380–390} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_2015, title={ReadMe}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2016107009021351&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2016107009021351}, DOI={10.5061/DRYAD.18NG6/7}, journal={Dryad}, author={Duveneck, Matthew Joshua and Scheller, Robert Michael}, year={2015} }
 @inbook{scheller_swanson_2015, title={Simulating forest recovery following disturbances: Vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry}, ISBN={9783319198095}, DOI={10.1007/978-3-319-19809-5_10}, booktitle={Simulation modeling of forest landscape disturbances}, publisher={Cham : Springer International Publishing}, author={Scheller, Robert and Swanson, M.E}, editor={A.H. Perera, B.R. Sturtevant and Buse, L.J.Editors}, year={2015} }
 @article{jenny_liem_lucash_scheller_2014, title={4-D Statistical Surface Method for Visual Change Detection in Forest Ecosystem Simulation Time Series}, volume={7}, ISSN={["2151-1535"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000347875700020&KeyUID=WOS:000347875700020}, DOI={10.1109/jstars.2014.2324972}, abstractNote={Rising uncertainties associated with climate change compel forest management planning to include forest ecosystem simulations. The output of such models is often of high spatio-temporal complexity and difficult to interpret for the user. This contribution describes a novel visualization method called four-dimensional (4-D) statistical surfaces, which aims at improving the visual detection of change in time series. The method visualizes attribute values as surfaces, which are interpolated and animated over time; the interactive attribute surfaces are combined with color-coding and contour lines to support absolute and relative height judgment as well as faster perception and better location of change. A design study and prototypical implementation of the visualization method is described in this contribution. Time-series simulation results of LANDIS-II, a commonly used modeling tool in forest ecology, as well as a temporal vegetation index dataset (NDVI) are visualized using 4-D statistical surfaces. Usability challenges are addressed based on explorative interviews with a small group of users. The method is not limited to ecological model output; it can be used to create three-dimensional (3-D) temporal animations of arbitrary time-series datasets where parameters are supplied in regular raster format.}, number={11}, journal={IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING}, author={Jenny, Helen and Liem, Johannes and Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2014}, month={Nov}, pages={4505–4511} }
 @article{clark_skowronski_renninger_scheller_2014, title={Climate change and fire management in the mid-Atlantic region}, volume={327}, ISSN={["1872-7042"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000340852800032&KeyUID=WOS:000340852800032}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2013.09.049}, abstractNote={In this review, we summarize the potential impacts of climate change on wildfire activity in the midAtlantic region, and then consider how the beneficial uses of prescribed fire could conflict with mitigation needs for climate change, focusing on patters of carbon (C) sequestration by forests in the region. We use a synthesis of field studies, eddy flux tower measurements, and simulation studies to evaluate how the use of prescribed fire affects short- and long-term forest C dynamics. Climate change may create weather conditions more conducive to wildfire activity, but successional changes in forest composition, altered gap dynamics, reduced understory and forest floor fuels, and fire suppression will likely continue to limit wildfire occurrence and severity throughout the region. Prescribed burning is the only major viable option that land managers have for reducing hazardous fuels in a cost-effective manner, or ensuring the regeneration and maintenance of fire-dependent species. Field measurements and model simulations indicate that consumption of fine fuels on the forest floor and understory vegetation during most prescribed burns is equivalent to <1–3 years of sequestered C, and depends on pre-burn fuel loading and burn intensity. Overstory tree mortality is typically low, and stands have somewhat reduced daytime C uptake during the next growing season following burns, but may also have reduced rates of ecosystem respiration. On an annual basis, net ecosystem productivity is negative the first year when consumption losses are included, but then positive in following years, and stands can reach C neutrality within <2–3 years. Field data and model simulations suggest that increases in prescribed burning in fire-prone areas would have little appreciable effect on long-term forest C dynamics in some fire-prone forest types. Large-scale conversion to young pine plantations for fiber and biofuels will potentially increase the risk of wildfires, as had occurred previously in the late-19th and early-20th centuries in the region. Published by Elsevier B.V.}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Clark, Kenneth L. and Skowronski, Nicholas and Renninger, Heidi and Scheller, Robert}, year={2014}, month={Sep}, pages={306–315} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_white_handler_ravenscroft_2014, title={Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000332686600002&KeyUID=WOS:000332686600002}, DOI={10.1890/es13-00370.1}, abstractNote={Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversity‐productivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir ( Abies balsamea ) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests.}, number={2}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M. and White, Mark A. and Handler, Stephen D. and Ravenscroft, Catherine}, year={2014}, month={Feb} }
 @article{kretchun_scheller_lucash_clark_hom_van tuyl_2014, title={Difference in biomass of functional species groups w/gypsy moth defoliation.}, volume={1}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2015157005987345&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2015157005987345}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0102531.t001}, journal={Figshare}, author={Kretchun, Alec M and Scheller, Robert M and Lucash, Melissa S and Clark, Kenneth L and Hom, John and Van Tuyl, Steve}, year={2014} }
 @article{loudermilk_stanton_scheller_dilts_weisberg_skinner_yang_2014, title={Effectiveness of fuel treatments for mitigating wildfire risk and sequestering forest carbon: A case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin}, volume={323}, ISSN={["1872-7042"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000336704500013&KeyUID=WOS:000336704500013}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2014.03.011}, abstractNote={Fuel-reduction treatments are used extensively to reduce wildfire risk and restore forest diversity and function. In the near future, increasing regulation of carbon (C) emissions may force forest managers to balance the use of fuel treatments for reducing wildfire risk against an alternative goal of C sequestration. The objective of this study was to evaluate how long-term fuel treatments mitigate wildfires and affect forest C. For the Lake Tahoe Basin in the central Sierra Nevada, USA, fuel treatment efficiency was explored with a landscape-scale simulation model, LANDIS-II, using five fuel treatment scenarios and two (contemporary and potential future) fire regimes. Treatment scenarios included applying a combination of light (hand) and moderate (mechanical) forest thinning continuously through time and transitioning from these prescriptions to a more mid-seral thinning prescription, both on a 15 and 30 year rotation interval. In the last scenario, fuel treatments were isolated to around the lake shore (nearby urban settlement) to simulate a low investment alternative were future resources may be limited. Results indicated that the forest will remain a C sink regardless of treatment or fire regime simulated, due to the landscape legacy of historic logging. Achievement of a net C gain required decades with intensive treatment and depended on wildfire activity: Fuel treatments were more effective in a more active fire environment, where the interface between wildfires and treatment areas increased and caused net C gain earlier than as compared to our scenarios with less wildfire activity. Fuel treatments were most effective when continuously applied and strategically placed in high ignition areas. Treatment type and re-application interval were less influential at the landscape scale, but had notable effects on species dynamics within management units. Treatments created more diverse forest conditions by shifting dominance patterns to a more mixed conifer system, with a higher proportion of fire-tolerant species. We demonstrated that a small amount of wildfire on the landscape resulted in significant changes in the C pool, and that strategically placed fuel treatments substantially reduced wildfire risk, increased fire resiliency of the forest, and is beneficial for long-term C management. Implications for landscape management included consideration for prioritization of treatment areas and creating ideal re-entry schedules that meet logistic, safety, and conservation goals. In forests with a concentrated wildland urban interface, fuel treatments may be vital for ensuring human welfare and enhancing forest integrity in a fire-prone future.}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Loudermilk, E. Louise and Stanton, Alison and Scheller, Robert M. and Dilts, Thomas E. and Weisberg, Peter J. and Skinner, Carl and Yang, Jian}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={114–125} }
 @article{duveneck_scheller_white_2014, title={Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region (USA)}, volume={44}, ISSN={["1208-6037"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000338998800003&KeyUID=WOS:000338998800003}, DOI={10.1139/cjfr-2013-0391}, abstractNote={Northern Great Lakes forests represent an ecotone in the boreal–temperate transition zone and are expected to change dramatically with climate change. Managers are increasingly seeking adaptation strategies to manage these forests. We explored the efficacy of two alternative management scenarios compared with business-as-usual (BAU) management: expanding forest reserves meant to preserve forest identity and increase resistance, and modified silviculture meant to preserve forest function and increase adaptive capacity. Our study landscapes encompassed northeastern Minnesota and northern Lower Michigan, which are predicted to experience significant changes in a future climate and represent a gradient of latitude, forest type, and management. We used the LANDIS-II forest simulation model to simulate forest change under current climate, low emissions climate, and high emissions climate futures. Our results suggest that under a low emissions climate scenario, expanded reserves and modified silviculture strategies can be effective at increasing resistance by preserving forest composition, including legacy species (e.g., balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.)), and increasing adaptive capacity by maintaining or increasing aboveground biomass compared with BAU management. Under a high emissions climate scenario, the expanded reserve strategy was not effective at preserving legacy species; however, the modified silviculture strategy was effective at increasing aboveground biomass compared with BAU management. These results highlight alternative management options and limitations in the face of climate change.}, number={7}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH}, author={Duveneck, Matthew J. and Scheller, Robert M. and White, Mark A.}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={700–710} }
 @article{sabatini_burton_scheller_amatangelo_mladenoff_2014, title={Functional diversity of ground-layer plant communities in old-growth and managed northern hardwood forests}, volume={17}, ISSN={["1654-109X"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000337725300004&KeyUID=WOS:000337725300004}, DOI={10.1111/avsc.12083}, abstractNote={Abstract Questions Do ecological sorting processes and functional diversity of forest ground‐layer plant communities vary among mature (65–85‐yr‐old) even‐aged, managed uneven‐aged and old‐growth forest stands? How does functional diversity relate to environmental variables within stands? Location Northern temperate deciduous forests of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA . Methods Ground‐layer species cover and light availability were measured at each of four old‐growth, even‐aged second‐growth, and managed uneven‐aged stands ( n = 12 stands total). We used mixed‐effect models and fourth‐corner analysis to assess relationships among forest structure, species traits and the three components of functional diversity (functional richness, evenness, divergence) based on 32 leaf, reproductive and whole plant traits from 111 species. Results We identified differences in leaf phenology and morphology, life form and dispersal among stand types at the community level. Ground‐layer plant communities of even‐aged and uneven‐aged stands were at opposite ends of a spectrum of strategies aimed at tolerating stressful vs competitive environments, respectively. In even‐aged stands, communities were characterized by species adapted to relatively dark and closed conditions (heavy‐seeded tree saplings, spring ephemerals). In contrast, managed uneven‐aged stands were characterized by species with potential for quick returns on investment of nutrients and dry mass in leaves (i.e. early summer species with high specific leaf area, low leaf dry matter content and high phosphorus concentration). Old‐growth stands had fewer trait associations than managed stands, and were characterized by ferns and species with either ballistic or wind‐assisted seed dispersal. Functional diversity metrics were related in complex ways to light, management and soil texture. Managed stands had higher functional richness and divergence than old‐growth stands, which, instead, showed higher functional evenness. Conclusions Even‐aged and managed stands support ground‐layer species with a distinct set of traits relative to those found in old‐growth forests. Although there is broad interest in uneven‐aged management as a means to restore the structures and functions of old‐growth forests, uneven‐aged management does not, at least initially, produce ground‐layer plant communities more similar to old‐growth forests than even‐aged management.}, number={3}, journal={APPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE}, author={Sabatini, Francesco M. and Burton, Julia I. and Scheller, Robert M. and Amatangelo, Kathryn L. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={398–407} }
 @article{lucash_scheller_kretchun_clark_hom_2014, title={Impacts of fire and climate change on long-term nitrogen availability and forest productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens}, volume={44}, ISSN={["1208-6037"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000334849300002&KeyUID=WOS:000334849300002}, DOI={10.1139/cjfr-2013-0383}, abstractNote={Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had little effect on mineral N, whereas climate change and fire together reduced mineral N by the end of the century. Though N initially limited forest productivity, mineral N was no longer limiting after 50 years. Our results suggest that mineral N is resilient to fire under our current climate but not under climate change. Also, predictions that do not consider N limitation may underestimate short-term but not long-term productivity responses to climate change. Together these results illustrate the importance of including N dynamics when simulating the effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly in fire-prone regions such as the New Jersey Pine Barrens.}, number={5}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH}, author={Lucash, Melissa S. and Scheller, Robert M. and Kretchun, Alec M. and Clark, Kenneth L. and Hom, John}, year={2014}, month={May}, pages={404–412} }
 @book{handler_m.j. duveneck_e. peters_k. wythers_p. butler_p.d. shannon_a. clark-eagle_r. corner_reich_2014, title={Michigan forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis}, volume={NRS-129}, journal={USFS General Technical Report}, author={Handler, S. and M.J. Duveneck, L. Iverson and E. Peters, R.M. Scheller and K. Wythers, L. Brandt and P. Butler, M. Janowiak and P.D. Shannon, C. Swanston and A. Clark-Eagle, J.G. Cohen and R. Corner and Reich, P.B.}, year={2014} }
 @book{handler_m.j. duveneck_e. peters_k. wythers_p. butler_p.d. shannon_r. kolka_b. palik_white_2014, title={Minnesota forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis}, volume={NRS-133}, journal={USFS General Technical Report}, author={Handler, S. and M.J. Duveneck, L. Iverson and E. Peters, R.M. Scheller and K. Wythers, L. Brandt and P. Butler, M. Janowiak and P.D. Shannon, C. Swanston and R. Kolka, C. McQuiston and B. Palik, C. Turner and White, M.}, year={2014} }
 @article{wang_mladenoff_forrester_blanco_scheller_peckham_keough_lucash_gower_2014, title={Multimodel simulations of forest harvesting effects on long-term productivity and CN cycling in aspen forests}, volume={24}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000341715800010&KeyUID=WOS:000341715800010}, DOI={10.1890/12-0888.1}, abstractNote={The effects of forest management on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics vary by harvest type and species. We simulated long-term effects of bole-only harvesting of aspen (Populus tremuloides) on stand productivity and interaction of CN cycles with a multiple model approach. Five models, Biome-BGC, CENTURY, FORECAST, LANDIS-II with Century-based soil dynamics, and PnET-CN, were run for 350 yr with seven harvesting events on nutrient-poor, sandy soils representing northwestern Wisconsin, United States. Twenty CN state and flux variables were summarized from the models' outputs and statistically analyzed using ordination and variance analysis methods. The multiple models' averages suggest that bole-only harvest would not significantly affect long-term site productivity of aspen, though declines in soil organic matter and soil N were significant. Along with direct N removal by harvesting, extensive leaching after harvesting before canopy closure was another major cause of N depletion. These five models were notably different in output values of the 20 variables examined, although there were some similarities for certain variables. PnET-CN produced unique results for every variable, and CENTURY showed fewer outliers and similar temporal patterns to the mean of all models. In general, we demonstrated that when there are no site-specific data for fine-scale calibration and evaluation of a single model, the multiple model approach may be a more robust approach for long-term simulations. In addition, multimodeling may also improve the calibration and evaluation of an individual model.}, number={6}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Wang, Fugui and Mladenoff, David J. and Forrester, Jodi A. and Blanco, Juan A. and Scheller, Robert M. and Peckham, Scott D. and Keough, Cindy and Lucash, Melissa S. and Gower, Stith T.}, year={2014}, month={Sep}, pages={1374–1389} }
 @article{kretchun_scheller_lucash_clark_hom_van tuyl_2014, title={Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens}, volume={9}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000340900600008&KeyUID=WOS:000340900600008}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0102531}, abstractNote={Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.}, number={8}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Kretchun, Alec M. and Scheller, Robert M. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Clark, Kenneth L. and Hom, John and Van Tuyl, Steve}, year={2014}, month={Aug} }
 @article{kretchun_scheller_lucash_clark_hom_van tuyl_2014, title={Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens}, volume={1}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=DRCI_CEL&KeyUT=DRCI:DATA2015157005987344&KeyUID=DRCI:DATA2015157005987344}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0102531.s001}, journal={Figshare}, author={Kretchun, Alec M and Scheller, Robert M and Lucash, Melissa S and Clark, Kenneth L and Hom, John and Van Tuyl, Steve}, year={2014} }
 @article{loudermilk_scheller_weisberg_yang_dilts_karam_skinner_2013, title={Carbon dynamics in the future forest: the importance of long-term successional legacy and climate-fire interactions}, volume={19}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000325567100023&KeyUID=WOS:000325567100023}, DOI={10.1111/gcb.12310}, abstractNote={Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long-term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, such as wildfires and timber harvesting events. We used a landscape-scale model of forest succession, wildfire, and C dynamics (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the effects of a changing climate (A2 and B1 IPCC emissions; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory General Circulation Models) on total forest C, tree species composition, and wildfire dynamics in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, and Nevada. The independent effects of temperature and precipitation were assessed within and among climate models. Results highlight the importance of modeling forest succession and stand development processes at the landscape scale for understanding the C cycle. Due primarily to landscape legacy effects of historic logging of the Comstock Era in the late 1880s, C sequestration may continue throughout the current century, and the forest will remain a C sink (Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance > 0), regardless of climate regime. Climate change caused increases in temperatures limited simulated C sequestration potential because of augmented fire activity and reduced establishment ability of subalpine and upper montane trees. Higher temperatures influenced forest response more than reduced precipitation. As the forest reached its potential steady state, the forest could become C neutral or a C source, and climate change could accelerate this transition. The future of forest ecosystem C cycling in many forested systems worldwide may depend more on major disturbances and landscape legacies related to land use than on projected climate change alone.}, number={11}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Loudermilk, E. Louise and Scheller, Robert M. and Weisberg, Peter J. and Yang, Jian and Dilts, Thomas E. and Karam, Sarah L. and Skinner, Carl}, year={2013}, month={Nov}, pages={3502–3515} }
 @article{karam_weisberg_scheller_johnson_miller_2013, title={Development and evaluation of a nutrient cycling extension for the LANDIS-II landscape simulation model}, volume={250}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000315246100005&KeyUID=WOS:000315246100005}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.10.016}, abstractNote={Long-term nutrient cycling dynamics are the result of interactions between forest succession, disturbance, nutrient cycling, and other forest processes. We developed NuCycling-Succession, a simple nutrient cycling and succession extension for the LANDIS-II landscape model of forest dynamics, to examine the interactions between these forest processes in order to develop more realistic predictions of forest response to management practices and global change. NuCycling-Succession models carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus nutrient fluxes and masses associated with the living biomass, dead biomass, soil organic matter, soil mineral N and P, charcoal, and bedrock nutrient pools. It includes direct effects of disturbance events on nutrient cycling as well as indirect effects mediated through changes in forest composition and structure. NuCycling-Succession represents the continuum of decomposition and associated changes in chemistry using annual cohorts of leaf and fine root litter. This formulation includes the interaction of decomposition dynamics with disturbances that affect the forest floor, such as fire. Evaluation of model results relative to field data and results reported in the literature indicate the model adequately represents nutrient pools and fluxes. We present a case study of the effects of changing fire and biomass harvesting regimes on nutrient cycling in the Lake Tahoe Basin. Model results suggest that fire exclusion has resulted in substantially increased mass of nutrient pools. The NuCycling-Succession extension provides a useful simulation framework for exploring how global change factors (climate change, altered disturbance regimes) may influence nutrient cycling processes and nutrient budgets in forested ecosystems.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Karam, Sarah L. and Weisberg, Peter J. and Scheller, Robert M. and Johnson, Dale W. and Miller, W. Wally}, year={2013}, month={Feb}, pages={45–57} }
 @inbook{scheller_2013, title={Landscape modeling}, volume={4}, DOI={10.1016/b978-0-12-384719-5.00387-7}, abstractNote={Landscape and regional models have become a central component of many efforts to conserve or manage biodiversity. Landscape models allow scientists and managers to extrapolate their knowledge in space and time and to therefore better understand how long-term and large-scale changes may affect biodiversity. Landscape models account for the geographic context of populations and management and the principal drivers of change. However, they vary widely in their complexity, flexibility, and spatial, temporal, and taxonomic resolutions. In this article the author outlines the basic premises of landscape models; describes their utility and limitations; and summarizes the basic forms of landscape models.}, booktitle={Encyclopedia of Biodiversity, 2nd edition}, publisher={Waltham, MA: Academic Press}, author={Scheller, Robert}, year={2013}, pages={531–538} }
 @article{jenny_liem_lucash_scheller_ieee_2013, title={Visualization of Alternative Future Scenarios for Forest Ecosystems Using Animated Statistical Surfaces}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000342772000102&KeyUID=WOS:000342772000102}, journal={2013 Second International Conference on Agro-Geoinformatics (Agro-Geoinformatics)}, author={Jenny, H. and Liem, J. and Lucash, M. S. and Scheller, R. M. and IEEE}, year={2013}, pages={510–514} }
 @inproceedings{jenny_liem_lucash_scheller_2013, title={Visualization of alternative future scenarios for forest ecosystems using animated statistical surfaces}, DOI={10.1109/argo-geoinformatics.2013.6621974}, abstractNote={Rising uncertainties associated with climate change make it important to include forest ecosystem simulations into forest management planning. The output of such models can be visualized in two-dimensional time-series animation, which is often too complex to provide a spatio-temporal overview. This contribution describes a novel method, called animated three-dimensional statistical surfaces, that aims at improving the perception of change in animated time-series. The method visualizes attribute values as surfaces, which are interpolated and animated over time; the attribute surfaces are combined with color-coding and contour lines to support absolute and relative height judgment as well as faster perception and better location of change. A design study and prototypical implementation of the visualization method is described in this contribution. The method is not limited to ecological model output; it can be used to create three-dimensional animations of arbitrary time-series where parameters are supplied in regular raster format.}, booktitle={2013 second international conference on agro-geoinformatics (agro-geoinformatics)}, author={Jenny, H. and Liem, J. and Lucash, M. S. and Scheller, R. M.}, year={2013}, pages={510–514} }
 @article{dymond_r.m. scheller_beukema_2012, title={A new model for simulating climate change and carbon dynamics in forested landscapes}, volume={13}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Ecosystems and Management}, author={Dymond, C.C. and R.M. Scheller and Beukema, S.}, year={2012}, pages={1–2} }
 @article{seidl_rammer_scheller_spies_2012, title={An individual-based process model to simulate landscape-scale forest ecosystem dynamics}, volume={231}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000303081300009&KeyUID=WOS:000303081300009}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.015}, abstractNote={Forest ecosystem dynamics emerges from nonlinear interactions between adaptive biotic agents (i.e., individual trees) and their relationship with a spatially and temporally heterogeneous abiotic environment. Understanding and predicting the dynamics resulting from these complex interactions is crucial for the sustainable stewardship of ecosystems, particularly in the context of rapidly changing environmental conditions. Here we present iLand (the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model), a novel approach to simulating forest dynamics as an emergent property of environmental drivers, ecosystem processes and dynamic interactions across scales. Our specific objectives were (i) to describe the model, in particular its novel approach to simulate spatially explicit individual-tree competition for resources over large scales within a process-based framework of physiological resource use, and (ii) to present a suite of evaluation experiments assessing iLands ability to simulate tree growth and mortality for a wide range of forest ecosystems. Adopting an approach rooted in ecological field theory, iLand calculates a continuous field of light availability over the landscape, with every tree represented by a mechanistically derived, size- and species-dependent pattern of light interference. Within a hierarchical multi-scale framework productivity is derived at stand-level by means of a light-use efficiency approach, and downscaled to individuals via local light availability. Allocation (based on allometric ratios) and mortality (resulting from carbon starvation) are modeled at the individual-tree level, accounting for adaptive behavior of trees in response to their environment. To evaluate the model we conducted simulations over the extended environmental gradient of a longitudinal transect in Oregon, USA, and successfully compared results against independently observed productivity estimates (63.4% of variation explained) and mortality patterns in even-aged stands. This transect experiment was furthermore replicated for a different set of species and ecosystems in the Austrian Alps, documenting the robustness and generality of our approach. Model performance was also successfully evaluated for structurally and compositionally complex old-growth forests in the western Cascades of Oregon. Finally, the ability of our approach to address forest ecosystem dynamics at landscape scales was demonstrated by a computational scaling experiment. In simulating the emergence of ecosystem patterns and dynamics as a result of complex process interactions across scales our approach has the potential to contribute crucial capacities to understanding and fostering forest ecosystem resilience under changing climatic conditions.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Seidl, Rupert and Rammer, Werner and Scheller, Robert M. and Spies, Thomas A.}, year={2012}, month={Apr}, pages={87–100} }
 @article{scheller_kretchun_van tuyl_clark_lucash_hom_2012, title={Divergent carbon dynamics under climate change in forests with diverse soils, tree species, and land use histories}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000327304100018&KeyUID=WOS:000327304100018}, DOI={10.1890/es12-00241.1}, abstractNote={Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over‐utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS‐II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer‐term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de‐stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration.}, number={11}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Kretchun, Alec M. and Van Tuyl, Steve and Clark, Kenneth L. and Lucash, Melissa S. and Hom, John}, year={2012}, month={Nov} }
 @article{xu_gertner_scheller_2012, title={Importance of colonization and competition in forest landscape response to global climatic change}, volume={110}, ISSN={["1573-1480"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000297910300005&KeyUID=WOS:000297910300005}, DOI={10.1007/s10584-011-0098-5}, abstractNote={The tree species composition of a forested landscape may respond to climate change through two primary successional mechanisms: (1) colonization of suitable habitats and (2) competitive dynamics of established species. In this study, we assessed the relative importance of competition and colonization in forest landscape response (as measured by the forest type composition change) to global climatic change. Specifically, we simulated shifts in forest composition within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area of northern Minnesota during the period 2000–2400 AD. We coupled a forest ecosystem process model, PnET-II, and a spatially dynamic forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate landscape change. The relative ability of 13 tree species to colonize suitable habitat was represented by the probability of establishment or recruitment. The relative competitive ability was represented by the aboveground net primary production. Both competitive and colonization abilities changed over time in response to climatic change. Our results showed that, given only moderate-frequent windthrow (rotation period = 500 years) and fire disturbances (rotation period = 300 years), competition is relatively more important for the short-term (<100 years) compositional response to climatic change. For longer-term forest landscape response (>100 years), colonization became relatively more important. However, if more frequent fire disturbances were simulated, then colonization is the dominant process from the beginning of the simulations. Our results suggest that the disturbance regime will affect the relative strengths of successional drivers, the understanding of which is critical for future prediction of forest landscape response to global climatic change.}, number={1-2}, journal={CLIMATIC CHANGE}, author={Xu, Chonggang and Gertner, George Z. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2012}, month={Jan}, pages={53–83} }
 @article{scheller_van tuyl_clark_hom_la puma_2011, title={Carbon Sequestration in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Under Different Scenarios of Fire Management}, volume={14}, ISSN={["1435-0629"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000294683300010&KeyUID=WOS:000294683300010}, DOI={10.1007/s10021-011-9462-6}, abstractNote={The New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB) is the largest forested area along the northeastern coast of the United States. The NJPB are dominated by pine (Pinus spp.) and oak (Quercus spp.) stands that are fragmented and subject to frequent disturbance and forest management. Over long time periods (>50 years), the balance between oak and pine dominance is determined by fire frequency. As a consequence, the ability of the NJPB to sequester carbon may be contingent upon management activities as well as patterns of historic land use. We simulated 100 years of carbon change using three scenarios: (1) contemporary management as reflected in the recent (1991–2006) fire records, (2) an increase in the fire ignitions within the wildland urban interface areas of the NJPB reflecting increased prescribed fires, and (3) a longer response time to wildfires, reflecting a more liberal burning policy by the New Jersey Forest Fire Service. We used the LANDIS-II model coupled with CENTURY and the Dynamic Fire and Dynamic Biomass Fuels extensions to estimate forest carbon sequestration based on these three scenarios. Calibration and validation via comparison to monthly flux tower data indicated that the model reasonably captured the timing and magnitude of net ecosystem exchange in the absence of Gypsy moth defoliation (r 2 = 0.89). Under all scenarios, our simulations suggest that forests of the NJPB will continue to accumulate carbon over the next 100 years under current climatic conditions. Although aboveground net primary productivity, live carbon, and detrital carbon were roughly constant or increased only modestly, soil organic carbon continued to increase through time for all forest types except the highly xeric pine plains. Our simulated changes in management reflected only minor alterations to the fire regime and thus management may have only minor effects on total forest carbon budgets in the immediate future particularly when compared to recovery from historic disturbance patterns.}, number={6}, journal={ECOSYSTEMS}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Van Tuyl, Steve and Clark, Kenneth L. and Hom, John and La Puma, Inga}, year={2011}, month={Sep}, pages={987–1004} }
 @article{gustafson_shvidenko_scheller_2011, title={Effectiveness of forest management strategies to mitigate effects of global change in south-central Siberia}, volume={41}, ISSN={["1208-6037"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000295185600004&KeyUID=WOS:000295185600004}, DOI={10.1139/x11-065}, abstractNote={We investigated questions about the ability of broad silvicultural strategies to achieve multiple objectives (reduce disturbance losses, maintain the abundance of preferred species, mitigate fragmentation and loss of age-class diversity, and sequester aboveground carbon) under future climate conditions in Siberia. We conducted a factorial experiment using the LANDIS-II landscape disturbance and succession model. Treatments included varying the size and amount of areas cut and the cutting method (selective or clearcut). Simultaneously, the model simulated natural disturbances (fire, wind, insect outbreaks) and forest succession under projected future climate conditions as predicted by an ensemble of global circulation models. The cutting method and cutting rate treatments generally had a large effect on species and age-class composition, residual living biomass, and susceptibility to disturbance, whereas cutblock size had no effect. Cutblock size affected only measures of fragmentation, but cutting method and cutting rate often had an even greater effect. Based on the results, we simulated a “recommended” strategy and compared it with the current forest management practice. The recommended strategy resulted in greater forest biomass, increased abundance of favored species, and reduced fragmentation, but it did not significantly reduce losses by disturbance. No single strategy appears able to achieve all possible forest management objectives.}, number={7}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH}, author={Gustafson, Eric J. and Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2011}, month={Jul}, pages={1405–1421} }
 @article{syphard_scheller_ward_spencer_strittholt_2011, title={Simulating landscape-scale effects of fuels treatments in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1448-5516"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000290222200004&KeyUID=WOS:000290222200004}, DOI={10.1071/wf09125}, abstractNote={In many coniferous forests of the western United States, wildland fuel accumulation and projected climate conditions increase the likelihood that fires will become larger and more intense. Fuels treatments and prescribed fire are widely recommended, but there is uncertainty regarding their ability to reduce the severity of subsequent fires at a landscape scale. Our objective was to investigate the interactions among landscape-scale fire regimes, fuels treatments and fire weather in the southern Sierra Nevada, California. We used a spatially dynamic model of wildfire, succession and fuels management to simulate long-term (50 years), broad-scale (across 2.2 × 106 ha) effects of fuels treatments. We simulated thin-from-below treatments followed by prescribed fire under current weather conditions and under more severe weather. Simulated fuels management minimised the mortality of large, old trees, maintained total landscape plant biomass and extended fire rotation, but effects varied based on elevation, type of treatment and fire regime. The simulated area treated had a greater effect than treatment intensity, and effects were strongest where more fires intersected treatments and when simulated weather conditions were more severe. In conclusion, fuels treatments in conifer forests potentially minimise the ecological effects of high-severity fire at a landscape scale provided that 8% of the landscape is treated every 5 years, especially if future fire weather conditions are more severe than those in recent years.}, number={3}, journal={INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE}, author={Syphard, Alexandra D. and Scheller, Robert M. and Ward, Brendan C. and Spencer, Wayne D. and Strittholt, James R.}, year={2011}, pages={364–383} }
 @article{scheller_hua_bolstad_birdsey_mladenoff_2011, title={The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in Lake States Mesic Forests}, volume={222}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000284968300013&KeyUID=WOS:000284968300013}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.09.009}, abstractNote={Total forest carbon (C) storage is determined by succession, disturbances, climate, and the edaphic properties of a site or region. Forest harvesting substantially affects C dynamics; these effects may be amplified if forest harvesting is intensified to provide biofuel feedstock. We tested the effects of harvest intensity on landscape C using a simulation modeling approach that included C dynamics, multiple disturbances, and successional changes in composition. We developed a new extension for the LANDIS-II forest landscape disturbance and succession model that incorporates belowground soil C dynamics derived from the CENTURY soil model. The extension was parameterized and calibrated using data from an experimental forest in northeastern Wisconsin, USA. We simulated a 9800 ha forested landscape over 400 years with wind disturbance combined with no harvesting, harvesting with residual slash left on site (‘standard harvest’), and whole-tree harvesting. We also simulated landscapes without wind disturbance and without eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) to examine the effects of detrital quantity and quality on C dynamics. We estimated changes in live C, detrital C, soil organic C, total C, and forest composition. Overall, the simulations without harvesting had substantially greater total C and continued to sequester C. Standard harvest simulations had more C than the whole tree harvest simulations. Under both harvest regimes, C accrual was not evident after 150 years. Without hemlock, SOC was reduced due to a decline in detritus and a shift in detrital chemistry. In conclusion, if the intensity of harvesting increases we can expect a corresponding reduction in potential C storage. Compositional changes due to historic circumstances (loss of hemlock) may also affect forest C although to a lesser degree than harvesting. The modeling approach presented enabled us to consider multiple, interacting drivers of landscape change and the subsequent changes in forest C.}, number={1}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Hua, Dong and Bolstad, Paul V. and Birdsey, Richard A. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2011}, month={Jan}, pages={144–153} }
 @article{thompson_foster_scheller_kittredge_2011, title={The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA}, volume={21}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000296139200007&KeyUID=WOS:000296139200007}, DOI={10.1890/10-2383.1}, abstractNote={Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010–2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create “probability-of-conversion” and “probability-of-harvest” zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naïve assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses.}, number={7}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Thompson, Jonathan R. and Foster, David R. and Scheller, Robert and Kittredge, David}, year={2011}, month={Oct}, pages={2425–2444} }
 @book{gustafson_sturtevant_shvidenko_scheller_li_lafortezza_chen_2011, title={Using Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models to Support Forest Management}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV201100362715&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV201100362715}, journal={Landscape Ecology in Forest Management and Conservation: Challenges and Solutions for Global Change}, author={Gustafson, Eric J. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. and Scheller, Robert M. and Li, C and Lafortezza, R and Chen, J}, year={2011}, pages={99–118} }
 @article{gustafson_sturtevant_shvidenko_scheller_li_lafortezza_chen_2011, title={Using Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models to Support Forest Management}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000288968400005&KeyUID=WOS:000288968400005}, journal={Landscape Ecology in Forest Management and Conservation: Challenges and Solutions For Global Change}, author={Gustafson, Eric J. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. and Scheller, Robert M. and Li, C and Lafortezza, R and Chen, J}, year={2011}, pages={99–118} }
 @inbook{gustafson_sturtevant_shvidenko_scheller_2011, title={Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management}, DOI={10.1007/978-3-642-12754-0_5}, booktitle={Landscape ecology in forest management and conservation}, publisher={Beijing: Higher Education Press; Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag}, author={Gustafson, E.J. and Sturtevant, B.R. and Shvidenko, A.Z. and Scheller, R.M.}, editor={Chao Li, Raffaele Lafortezza and Chen, JiquanEditors}, year={2011}, pages={99–118} }
 @article{spencer_rustigian-romsos_strittholt_scheller_zielinski_truex_2011, title={Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population}, volume={144}, ISSN={["1873-2917"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000287897100019&KeyUID=WOS:000287897100019}, DOI={10.1016/j.biocon.2010.10.027}, abstractNote={An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a fisher probability of occurrence model. The fisher occurrence model was selected from a family of generalized additive models (GAM) generated using numerous environmental variables and fisher detection–nondetection data collected at 228 survey arrays sampled repeatedly during 2002–2006. The selected GAM accounted for 69% of the Akaike weight using total above-ground biomass of trees, latitude-adjusted elevation, and annual precipitation averaged over a 5 km2 moving window. We estimated equilibrium population sizes (or carrying capacities) within currently occupied areas, and identified likely population source, sink, and expansion areas, by simulating population processes for 20 years using different demographic rates, dispersal distances, and territory sizes. The population model assumed that demographic parameters of fishers scale in proportion to habitat quality as indexed by the calculated probability of fisher occurrence. Based on the most defensible range of parameter values, we estimate fisher carrying capacity at ∼125–250 adults in currently occupied areas. Population expansion into potential habitat in and north of Yosemite National Park has potential to increase population size, but this potential for expansion is predicted to be highly sensitive to mortality rates, which may be elevated in the northern portion of the occupied range by human influences, including roadkill and diseases carried by domestic cats and dogs.}, number={2}, journal={BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION}, author={Spencer, Wayne and Rustigian-Romsos, Heather and Strittholt, James and Scheller, Robert and Zielinski, William and Truex, Richard}, year={2011}, month={Feb}, pages={788–803} }
 @article{scheller_spencer_rustigian-romsos_syphard_ward_strittholt_2011, title={Using stochastic simulation to evaluate competing risks of wildfires and fuels management on an isolated forest carnivore}, volume={26}, ISSN={["0921-2973"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000297136900015&KeyUID=WOS:000297136900015}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-011-9663-6}, number={10}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Spencer, Wayne D. and Rustigian-Romsos, Heather and Syphard, Alexandra D. and Ward, Brendan C. and Strittholt, James R.}, year={2011}, month={Dec}, pages={1491–1504} }
 @article{xu_guneralp_gertner_scheller_2010, title={Elasticity and loop analyses: tools for understanding forest landscape response to climatic change in spatial dynamic models}, volume={25}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000278526000004&KeyUID=WOS:000278526000004}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-010-9464-3}, number={6}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Xu, Chonggang and Guneralp, Burak and Gertner, George Z. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2010}, month={Jul}, pages={855–871} }
 @misc{foster_burton_forrester_liu_muss_sabatini_scheller_mladenoff_2010, title={Evidence for a recent increase in forest growth is questionable}, volume={107}, ISSN={["0027-8424"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000278054700081&KeyUID=WOS:000278054700081}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1002725107}, abstractNote={In a recent article, McMahon et al. (1) examined forest-plot biomass accumulation across a range of stands in the mid-Atlantic United States and suggest that climate change and trends in atmospheric CO2 explain an increase in forest growth. To show this increase, they fit a simple model to live above-ground forest biomass (AGB) as a function of stand age, and then propose that the derivative of this model is the expected rate of ensemble biomass change (). They conclude that biomass changes within census plots that exceed the ensemble expectation constitute recent increases in growth rates.}, number={21}, journal={PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA}, author={Foster, Jane R. and Burton, Julia I. and Forrester, Jodi A. and Liu, Feng and Muss, Jordan D. and Sabatini, Francesco M. and Scheller, Robert M. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2010}, month={May}, pages={E86–E87} }
 @article{ravenscroft_scheller_mladenoff_white_2010, title={Forest restoration in a mixed-ownership landscape under climate change}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000276635600003&KeyUID=WOS:000276635600003}, DOI={10.1890/08-1698.1}, abstractNote={The extent to which current landscapes deviate from the historical range of natural variability (RNV) is a common means of defining and ranking regional conservation targets. However, climate‐induced shifts in forest composition may render obsolete restoration strategies and conservation targets based on historic climate conditions and disturbance regimes. We used a spatially explicit forest ecosystem model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate the interaction of climate change and forest management in northeastern Minnesota, USA. We assessed the relevance of restoration strategies and conservation targets based on the RNV in the context of future climate change. Three climate scenarios (no climate change, low emissions, and high emissions) were simulated with three forest management scenarios: no harvest, current management, and a restoration‐based approach where harvest activity mimicked the frequency, severity, and size distribution of historic natural disturbance regimes. Under climate change there was a trend toward homogenization of forest conditions due to the widespread expansion of systems dominated by maple ( Acer spp.). White spruce ( Picea glauca ), balsam fir ( Abies balsamea ), and paper birch ( Betula papyrifera ) were extirpated from the landscape irrespective of management activity; additional losses of black spruce ( P. mariana ), red pine ( Pinus resinosa ), and jack pine ( P. banksiana ) were projected in the high‐emissions scenario. In the restoration management scenario, retention and conversion to white pine ( P. strobus ) restricted maple expansion. But, widespread forest loss in the restoration scenario under high‐emissions projections illustrates the potential pitfalls of implementing an RNV management approach in a system that is not compositionally similar to the historic reference condition. Given the uncertainty associated with climate change, ensuring a diversity of species and conditions within forested landscapes may be the most effective means of ensuring the future resistance of ecosystems to climate‐induced declines in productivity.}, number={2}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Ravenscroft, Catherine and Scheller, Robert M. and Mladenoff, David J. and White, Mark A.}, year={2010}, month={Mar}, pages={327–346} }
 @misc{scheller_sturtevant_gustafson_ward_mladenoff_2010, title={Increasing the reliability of ecological models using modern software engineering techniques}, volume={8}, ISSN={["1540-9309"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000278515600014&KeyUID=WOS:000278515600014}, DOI={10.1890/080141}, abstractNote={Modern software development techniques are largely unknown to ecologists. Typically, ecological models and other software tools are developed for limited research purposes, and additional capabilities are added later, usually in an ad hoc manner. Modern software engineering techniques can substantially increase scientific rigor and confidence in ecological models and tools. These techniques have the potential to transform how ecological software is conceived and developed, improve precision, reduce errors, and increase scientific credibility. We describe our re‐engineering of the forest landscape model LANDIS (LANdscape DIsturbance and Succession) to illustrate the advantages of using common software engineering practices.}, number={5}, journal={FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Ward, Brendan C. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2010}, month={Jun}, pages={253–260} }
 @article{scheller_e.j. gustafson_b.c. ward_d.j._mladenoff_2010, title={Increasing the research and management value of ecological models using modern software engineering techniques}, volume={8}, journal={Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment}, author={Scheller, R.M. and E.J. Gustafson, B.R. Sturtevant and B.C. Ward and D.J. and Mladenoff}, year={2010}, pages={253–260} }
 @article{gustafson_shvidenko_sturtevant_scheller_2010, title={Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000277077400008&KeyUID=WOS:000277077400008}, DOI={10.1890/08-1693.1}, abstractNote={Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will, in turn, affect the ability of these forests to retain carbon and maintain biodiversity. To predict future states of the boreal forest reliably, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes (succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind, and insects), and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber harvest). We used a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS‐II) to study the relative effects of climate change, timber harvesting, and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon), and landscape pattern in south‐central Siberia. We found that most response variables were more strongly influenced by timber harvest and insect outbreaks than by the direct effects of climate change. Direct climate effects generally increased tree productivity and modified probability of establishment, but indirect effects on the fire regime generally counteracted the direct effects of climate on forest composition. Harvest and insects significantly changed forest composition, reduced living aboveground biomass, and increased forest fragmentation. We concluded that: (1) Global change is likely to significantly change forest composition of south‐central Siberian landscapes, with some changes taking ecosystems outside the historic range of variability. (2) The direct effects of climate change in the study area are not as significant as the exploitation of virgin forest by timber harvest and the potential increased outbreaks of the Siberian silk moth. (3) Novel disturbance by timber harvest and insect outbreaks may greatly reduce the aboveground living biomass of Siberian forests and may significantly alter ecosystem dynamics and wildlife populations by increasing forest fragmentation.}, number={3}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Gustafson, Eric J. and Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2010}, month={Apr}, pages={700–715} }
 @article{sturtevant_scheller_miranda_shinneman_syphard_2009, title={Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: A process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II}, volume={220}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000272371300014&KeyUID=WOS:000272371300014}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.07.030}, abstractNote={Fire regimes result from reciprocal interactions between vegetation and fire that may be further affected by other disturbances, including climate, landform, and terrain. In this paper, we describe fire and fuel extensions for the forest landscape simulation model, LANDIS-II, that allow dynamic interactions among fire, vegetation, climate, and landscape structure, and incorporate realistic fire characteristics (shapes, distributions, and effects) that can vary within and between fire events. We demonstrate the capabilities of the new extensions using two case study examples with very different ecosystem characteristics: a boreal forest system from central Labrador, Canada, and a mixed conifer system from the Sierra Nevada Mountains (California, USA). In Labrador, comparison between the more complex dynamic fire extension and a classic fire simulator based on a simple fire size distribution showed little difference in terms of mean fire rotation and potential severity, but cumulative burn patterns created by the dynamic fire extension were more heterogeneous due to feedback between fuel types and fire behavior. Simulations in the Sierra Nevada indicated that burn patterns were responsive to topographic features, fuel types, and an extreme weather scenario, although the magnitude of responses depended on elevation. In both study areas, simulated fire size and resulting fire rotation intervals were moderately sensitive to parameters controlling the curvilinear response between fire spread and weather, as well as to the assumptions underlying the correlation between weather conditions and fire duration. Potential fire severity was more variable within the Sierra Nevada landscape and also was more sensitive to the correlation between weather conditions and fire duration. The fire modeling approach described here should be applicable to questions related to climate change and disturbance interactions, particularly within locations characterized by steep topography, where temporally or spatially dynamic vegetation significantly influences spread rates, where fire severity is variable, and where multiple disturbance types of varying severities are common.}, number={23}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Sturtevant, Brian R. and Scheller, Robert M. and Miranda, Brian R. and Shinneman, Douglas and Syphard, Alexandra}, year={2009}, month={Dec}, pages={3380–3393} }
 @article{sturtevant_miranda_yang_he_gustafson_scheller_2009, title={Studying Fire Mitigation Strategies in Multi-Ownership Landscapes: Balancing the Management of Fire-Dependent Ecosystems and Fire Risk}, volume={12}, ISSN={["1432-9840"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000264547300008&KeyUID=WOS:000264547300008}, DOI={10.1007/s10021-009-9234-8}, number={3}, journal={ECOSYSTEMS}, author={Sturtevant, Brian R. and Miranda, Brian R. and Yang, Jian and He, Hong S. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2009}, month={Apr}, pages={445–461} }
 @article{xu_gertner_scheller_2009, title={Uncertainties in the response of a forest landscape to global climatic change}, volume={15}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000262347600009&KeyUID=WOS:000262347600009}, DOI={10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01705.x}, abstractNote={Abstract Many studies have been conducted to quantify the possible ecosystem/landscape response to the anticipated global warming. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the future climate predictions used for these studies. Specifically, the climate predictions can be very different based on a variety of global climate models and alternative greenhouse emission scenarios. In this study, we coupled a forest landscape model, LANDIS‐II, and a forest process model, PnET‐II, to examine the uncertainty (that results from the uncertainty in the future climate predictions) in the forest‐type composition prediction for a transitional forest landscape [the Boundary Water Canoe Area]. Using an improved global‐sensitivity analysis technique [Fourier amplitude sensitivity test], we also quantified the amount of uncertainty in the forest‐type composition prediction contributed by different climate variables including temperature, CO 2 , precipitation and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). The forest landscape response was simulated for the period 2000–2400 ad based on the differential responses of 13 tree species under an ensemble of 27 possible climate prediction profiles (monthly time series of climate variables). Our simulations indicate that the uncertainty in the forest‐type composition becomes very high after 2200 ad , which is close to the time when the current forests are largely removed by windthrow disturbances and natural mortality. The most important source of uncertainty in the forest‐type composition prediction is from the uncertainty in temperature predictions. The second most important source is PAR, the third is CO 2 and the least important is precipitation. Our results also show that if the optimum photosynthetic temperature rises due to CO 2 enrichment, the forest landscape response to climatic change measured by forest‐type composition may be substantially reduced.}, number={1}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Xu, Chonggang and Gertner, George Z. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2009}, month={Jan}, pages={116–131} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2008, title={Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA}, volume={36}, ISSN={["0936-577X"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000257842800002&KeyUID=WOS:000257842800002}, DOI={10.3354/cr00745}, abstractNote={CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 36:191-202 (2008) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00745 Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA Robert M. Scheller1,2,*, David J. Mladenoff1 1Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA 2Present address: Conservation Biology Institute, 136 SW Washington, Suite 202, Corvallis, Oregon 97333, USA *Email: rmscheller@consbio.org ABSTRACT: The reproductive success, growth, and mortality rates of tree species in the northern United States will be differentially affected by projected climate change over the next century. As a consequence, the spatial distributions of tree species will expand or contract at differential rates. In addition, human fragmentation of the landscape may limit effective seed dispersal, and inter-specific competition may limit the migration of climate-adapted species, restraining the rate of tree species migration. If the northward migration of tree species adapted to a warmer climate lags behind the rate of climatic change, overall growth rates and aboveground biomass of northern forests may be significantly reduced relative to their potential. We used a spatially interactive forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, that simulates tree species establishment, growth, mortality, succession, and disturbance. We simulated multiple scenarios of disturbance and climatic change across a ~15000 km2 forested landscape in northwestern Wisconsin, USA. These simulations were used to estimate changes in aboveground live biomass and the spatial distribution of 22 tree species. We observed a reduction in aboveground live biomass relative to the potential biomass for the combined soils and changing climate. We regressed the reduction of potential aboveground biomass against a measure of fragmentation, the initial biomass for 22 tree species, and soil water holding capacity calculated at 3 spatial resolutions. We also regressed the range expansion of 3 individual tree species that are expected to expand their distributions against the same variables. Species migration and range expansion were negatively correlated with fragmentation both in total and for 2 of the 3 species examined in detail. The initial abundances of some tree species were also significant predictors of species migration and range expansion and indicate significant competition between existing species assemblages and more southerly species that are expected to migrate north. In conclusion, the aboveground biomass of northern forests may be limited by interactions among climate change, interspecific competition, and fragmentation. KEY WORDS: Climate change · Forest fragmentation · Interspecific competition · Carbon storage · LANDIS-II · Tree species range expansion · Tree species migration Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ (2008) Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA. Clim Res 36:191-202. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00745 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 36, No. 3. Online publication date: June 24, 2008 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2008 Inter-Research.}, number={3}, journal={CLIMATE RESEARCH}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2008}, month={Jun}, pages={191–202} }
 @article{scheller_van tuyl_clark_hayden_hom_mladenoff_2008, title={Simulation of forest change in the New Jersey Pine Barrens under current and pre-colonial conditions}, volume={255}, ISSN={["0378-1127"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000254597700014&KeyUID=WOS:000254597700014}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2007.11.025}, abstractNote={Changes in land use patterns in and around forests, including rural development and road building, have occurred throughout the United States and are accelerating in many areas. As a result, there have been significant departures from ‘natural’ or pre-settlement disturbance regimes. Altered disturbance regimes can shift composition and dominance in tree species communities, potentially affecting ecosystem functioning. We examined the potential consequences of various forest management practices and forest fragmentation on tree community composition. Both forest management and fragmentation are changing as land use changes within the New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB). The NJPB has and is continuing to experience rapid rural development and urbanization that are altering the types, frequency, and intensity of forest management, and are increasing forest fragmentation. In the NJPB, the size and frequency of wildfires have declined and the use of prescribed fires is limited to a small portion of the landscape. In addition, the expansion of roads and decline in total forested area – two common measures of fragmentation – may impede the ability of tree species to colonize available habitat. To assess the consequences of fire management and fragmentation on fire regimes and forest communities, we simulated forest landscape change using LANDIS-II, a stochastic, spatially dynamic forest succession model that simulates the growth of tree species cohorts (defined by species and age), dispersal and colonization, and mortality. Simulated fires are sensitive to fuel loads and fuel load continuity. We constructed scenarios to mimic the pre-colonial contiguous landscape with an estimated pre-colonial fire regime; scenarios of the current day landscape with current and potential fire management; and scenarios designed to highlight the effects of fragmentation. Our simulations indicate that relative to the pre-colonial landscape and fire regime, the landscape is changing from a pine-dominated to an oak-dominated state. However, within areas where prescribed burning remains a viable management option, a doubling of the mean annual area that is managed with prescribed burns may substantially push the system back towards pre-colonial conditions, although oaks will continue to retain a higher than pre-colonial dominance. Our results also indicate that aside from a reduction in the potential fire sizes, fragmentation does not appear to substantially alter forest successional dynamics. In summary, our simulations estimate the departure from pre-colonial conditions and indicate the potential for a limited restoration of these conditions.}, number={5-6}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Van Tuyl, Steve and Clark, Kenneth and Hayden, Nicholas G. and Hom, John and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2008}, month={Apr}, pages={1489–1500} }
 @inbook{scheller_mladenoff_2008, title={The potential futures of Wisconsin forested landscapes}, DOI={10.7208/chicago/9780226871745.003.0031}, abstractNote={Abstract Chapters 5–7 showed that Wisconsin's forests have changed in many different ways, reflecting shifts in climate, variable soils, the migration of species following glaciation, natural disturbances, past and current logging, fragmentation from roads, and continuing shifts in human land use. Forest ecologists, historians, and sociologists use data from many sources to infer how Great Lakes states forests have changed and how these changes reflect broader geographic and historical contexts. In this era of global environmental change, can we use the past to anticipate and understand the future? Or will future changes be unique and unpredictable? The chapter grapples with these questions as it tries to imagine Wisconsin's forests 100 years from now, exploring the consequences of factors like population growth and climate change.}, booktitle={The vanishing present: Ecological change in Wisconsin}, publisher={Chicago : University of Chicago Press}, author={Scheller, Robert and Mladenoff, D.J.}, editor={Waller, D.M. and T.P. RooneyEditors}, year={2008} }
 @misc{scheller_mladenoff_2007, title={An ecological classification of forest landscape simulation models: tools and strategies for understanding broad-scale forested ecosystems}, volume={22}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000245296600002&KeyUID=WOS:000245296600002}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-006-9048-4}, number={4}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2007}, month={Apr}, pages={491–505} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2007, title={An ecological classification of forest landscape simulation models: tools and strategies for understanding broad-scale forested ecosystems}, volume={22}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200700313685&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200700313685}, number={4}, journal={Landscape Ecology}, author={SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and MLADENOFF, DAVID J.}, year={2007}, pages={491–505} }
 @article{scheller_domingo_sturtevant_williams_rudy_gustafson_mladenoff_2007, title={Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution}, volume={201}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000244598300016&KeyUID=WOS:000244598300016}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.10.009}, abstractNote={We introduce LANDIS-II, a landscape model designed to simulate forest succession and disturbances. LANDIS-II builds upon and preserves the functionality of previous LANDIS forest landscape simulation models. LANDIS-II is distinguished by the inclusion of variable time steps for different ecological processes; our use of a rigorous development and testing process used by software engineers; and an emphasis on collaborative features including a flexible, open architecture. We detail the variable time step logic and provide an overview of the system architecture. Finally, we demonstrate model behavior and sensitivity to variable time steps through application to a large boreal forest landscape. We simulated pre-industrial forest fire regimes in order to establish base-line conditions for future management. Differing model time steps substantially altered our estimates of pre-industrial forest conditions. Where disturbance frequency is relatively high or successional processes long, the variable time steps may be a critical element for successful forest landscape modeling.}, number={3-4}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Scheller, Robert M. and Domingo, James B. and Sturtevant, Brian R. and Williams, Jeremy S. and Rudy, Arnold and Gustafson, Eric J. and Mladenoff, David J.}, year={2007}, month={Mar}, pages={409–419} }
 @article{ravenscroft_scheller_white_mladenoff_2007, title={Planning and simulating forest landscape restoration in a mixed-ownership landscape under climate change}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200900130117&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200900130117}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={RAVENSCROFT, CATHERINE and SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and WHITE, MARK A. and MLADENOFF, DAVID}, year={2007} }
 @article{xu_gertner_scheller_2007, title={Potential effects of interaction between CO2 and temperature on forest landscape response to global warming}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000248945800014&KeyUID=WOS:000248945800014}, DOI={10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01387.x}, abstractNote={Abstract Projected temperature increases under global warming could benefit southern tree species by providing them the optimal growing temperature and could be detrimental to northern species by exposing them to the supra optimal growing temperatures. This benefit‐detriment trade‐off could increase the competitive advantage of southern species in the northern species range and cause the increase or even dominance of southern species in the northern domain. However, the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of C3 plants may increase due to CO 2 enrichment. An increase in the optimum temperature could greatly reduce the benefit‐detriment effect. In this study, we coupled a forest ecosystem process model (PnET‐II) and a forest GAP model (LINKAGES) with a spatially dynamic forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II) to study how an optimum temperature increase could affect forest landscape response due to global warming. We simulated 360 years of forest landscape change in the Boundary Water Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota, which is transitional between boreal and temperate forest. Our results showed that, under the control scenario of continuing the historic 1984–1993 mean climate (mainly temperature, precipitation and CO 2 ), the BWCA will become a spruce‐fir dominated boreal forest. However, under the scenario of predicted climatic change [the 2000–2099 climates are predicted by Canadian Climate Center (CCC), followed by 200 years of continuing the predicted 2090–2099 mean climate], the BWCA will become a pine‐dominated mixed forest. If the optimum temperature increases gradually with [CO 2 ] (the increase in optimum temperature is assumed to change gradually from 0 °C in year 2000 to 5 °C in year 2099 when [CO 2 ] reaches 711 ppm and stabilizes at 5 °C after year 2099), the BWCA would remain a fir‐dominated boreal forest in areas with relatively high water‐holding capacity, but not in areas with relatively low water‐holding capacity. Our results suggest that the [CO 2 ] induced increases in optimum temperature could substantially reduce forest landscape change caused by global warming. However, not all tree species would be able to successfully adapt to future warming as predicted by CCC, regardless of optimum temperature acclimations.}, number={7}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Xu, Chonggang and Gertner, George Z. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2007}, month={Jul}, pages={1469–1483} }
 @article{xu_gertner_scheller_2007, title={Uncertainty in forest landscape response to global climatic change}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200900128520&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200900128520}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={XU, CHONGGANG and GERTNER, GEORGE and SCHELLER, ROBERT M.}, year={2007} }
 @article{radeloff_mladenoff_gustafson_scheller_zollner_he_akcakaya_2006, title={Modeling forest harvesting effects on landscape pattern in the Northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens}, volume={236}, ISSN={["1872-7042"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000242302500013&KeyUID=WOS:000242302500013}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2006.09.007}, abstractNote={Forest management shapes landscape patterns, and these patterns often differ significantly from those typical for natural disturbance regimes. This may affect wildlife habitat and other aspects of ecosystem function. Our objective was to examine the effects of different forest management decisions on landscape pattern in a fire adapted ecosystem. We used a factorial design experiment in LANDIS (a forest landscape simulation model) to test the effects of: (a) cut unit size, (b) minimum harvest age and (c) target species for management. Our study area was the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin, an area where fire suppression has caused a lack of large open areas important for wildlife. Our results show that all three management choices under investigation (cut unit size, minimum harvest age and target species for management) have strong effects on forest composition and landscape patterns. Cut unit size is the most important factor influencing landscape pattern, followed by target species for management (either jack pine or red pine) and then minimum harvest age. Open areas are more abundant, and their average size is larger, when cut units are larger, target species is jack pine, and minimum harvest age is lower. Such information can assist forest managers to relate stand level management decision to landscape patterns.}, number={1}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Radeloff, Volker C. and Mladenoff, David J. and Gustafson, Eric J. and Scheller, Robert M. and Zollner, Patrick A. and He, Hong S. and Akcakaya, H. Resit}, year={2006}, month={Nov}, pages={113–126} }
 @article{scheller_2006, title={Models in Ecosystem Science}, volume={21}, ISSN={0921-2973 1572-9761}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/S10980-005-4432-Z}, DOI={10.1007/S10980-005-4432-Z}, number={6}, journal={Landscape Ecology}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2006}, month={Aug}, pages={957–958} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2005, title={A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000226705600011&KeyUID=WOS:000226705600011}, DOI={10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00906.x}, abstractNote={Abstract In the coming century, forecast climate changes caused by increasing greenhouse gases may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions and the rates at which individual tree species sequester carbon or release carbon back to the atmosphere. The species composition and carbon storage capacity of northern Wisconsin (USA) forests are expected to change significantly as a result. Projected temperature changes are relatively large (up to a 5.8°C increase in mean annual temperature) and these forests encompass a broad ecotone that may be particularly sensitive to climate change. Our objective was to estimate the combined effects of climate change, common disturbances, and species migrations on regional forests using spatially interactive simulations. Multiple scenarios were simulated for 200 years to estimate aboveground live biomass and tree species composition. We used a spatially interactive forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II) that includes individual tree species, biomass accumulation and decomposition, windthrow, harvesting, and seed dispersal. We used data from two global circulation models, the Hadley Climate Centre (version 2) and the Canadian Climate Center (version 1) to generate transient growth and decomposition parameters for 23 species. The two climate change scenarios were compared with a control scenario of continuing current climate conditions. The results demonstrate how important spatially interactive processes will affect the aboveground live biomass and species composition of northern Wisconsin forests. Forest composition, including species richness, is strongly affected by harvesting, windthrow, and climate change, although five northern species ( Abies balsamea , Betula papyrifera , Picea glauca , Pinus banksiana , P. resinosa ) are lost in both climate scenarios regardless of disturbance scenario. Changes in aboveground live biomass over time are nonlinear and vary among ecoregions. Aboveground live biomass will be significantly reduced because of species dispersal and migration limitations. The expected shift towards southern oaks and hickory is delayed because of seed dispersal limitations.}, number={2}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Scheller, RM and Mladenoff, DJ}, year={2005}, month={Feb}, pages={307–321} }
 @article{ward_d.j. mladenoff_scheller_2005, title={Landscape-level effects of the interaction between residential development and public forest management in northern Wisconsin, USA}, volume={51}, journal={Forest Science}, author={Ward, B.C. and D.J. Mladenoff and Scheller, R.M.}, year={2005}, pages={616–632} }
 @article{ward_mladenoff_scheller_2005, title={Simulating landscape-level effects of constraints to public forest regeneration harvests due to adjacent residential development in northern Wisconsin}, volume={51}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000233973800012&KeyUID=WOS:000233973800012}, number={6}, journal={Forest Science}, author={WARD, BC and MLADENOFF, DJ and SCHELLER, RM}, year={2005}, pages={616–632} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_thomas_sickley_2005, title={Simulating the effects of fire reintroduction versus continued fire absence on forest composition and landscape structure in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, northern Minnesota, USA}, volume={8}, ISSN={["1435-0629"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10021-003-0087-2}, number={4}, journal={ECOSYSTEMS}, author={Scheller, RM and Mladenoff, DJ and Thomas, RC and Sickley, TA}, year={2005}, month={Jun}, pages={396–411} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_thomas_sickley_2005, title={Simulating the effects of fire reintroduction versus continued fire absence on forest composition and landscape structure in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, northern Minnesota, USA}, volume={8}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000230804500005&KeyUID=WOS:000230804500005}, DOI={10.1007/s10221-003-0087-2}, number={4}, journal={Ecosystems}, author={SCHELLER, RM and MLADENOFF, DJ and THOMAS, RC and SICKLEY, TA}, year={2005}, pages={396–411} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2004, title={A forest growth and biomass module for a landscape simulation model, LANDIS: design, validation, and application}, volume={180}, ISSN={["1872-7026"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000224379500014&KeyUID=WOS:000224379500014}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.01.022}, abstractNote={Predicting the long-term dynamics of forest systems depends on understanding multiple processes that often operate at vastly different scales. Disturbance and seed dispersal are landscape-scale phenomena and are spatially linked across the landscape. Ecosystem processes (e.g., growth and decomposition) have high annual and inter-specific variation and are generally quantified at the scale of a forest stand. To link these widely scaled processes, we used biomass (living and dead) as an integrating variable that provides feedbacks between disturbance and ecosystem processes and feedbacks among multiple disturbances. We integrated a simple model of biomass growth, mortality, and decay into LANDIS, a spatially dynamic landscape simulation model. The new biomass module was statically linked to PnET-II, a generalized ecosystem process model. The combined model simulates disturbances (fire, wind, harvesting), dispersal, forest biomass growth and mortality, and inter- and intra-specific competition. We used the model to quantify how fire and windthrow alter forest succession, living biomass and dead biomass across an artificial landscape representative of northern Wisconsin, USA. In addition, model validation and a sensitivity analysis were conducted.}, number={1}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MODELLING}, author={Scheller, RM and Mladenoff, DJ}, year={2004}, month={Dec}, pages={211–229} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2004, title={Simulating the effects of climate change, tree species migration, and disturbance on forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin.}, volume={89}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200500124314&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200500124314}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and MLADENOFF, DAVID J.}, year={2004}, pages={452} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2002, title={Fire and fire suppression mediated changes in forest composition and landscape structure of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, northern Minnesota, USA}, volume={87}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200200604675&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200200604675}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and MLADENOFF, DAVID J.}, year={2002}, pages={256} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2002, title={Understory species patterns and diversity in old-growth and managed northern hardwood forests}, volume={12}, ISSN={["1939-5582"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000179198600008&KeyUID=WOS:000179198600008}, DOI={10.2307/3099975}, abstractNote={Forest management can significantly affect both the diversity and spatial patterning of understory vegetation. However, few studies have considered both diversity and spatial patterning at a stand scale. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of forest management on understory plant communities in northern hardwood forests and assess the processes governing differences in species composition, diversity, and spatial patterns. We sampled understory vegetation (all species <2 m tall) and percentage of light transmission levels in three forest types in 12 mesic northern hardwood stands in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA: old-growth, undisturbed forests; even-aged forests resulting from clearcut logging (∼65–85 yr old); and uneven-aged forests with recent selective logging. Estimated understory species richness per stand, mean species richness per quadrat, and mean percent cover per quadrat were lower in old-growth forest than in even-aged, second-growth forests and lower in even-aged than in uneven-aged, second-growth forests. Differences in species composition among the three forest types were related to available light and to coarse woody debris; however, differences between the cover of most plant groups were not significant. The mean patch size of species diversity and cover is highly variable and could not be related to forest stand type. However, understory communities in old-growth forests have significantly smaller community patch sizes and larger compositional heterogeneity. Community patch size is correlated with both coarse woody debris and light heterogeneity. Each forest stand type produces a characteristic combination of understory composition, diversity, and spatial patterning of communities. Although harvesting has negligible effects on understory alpha diversity in these mesic hardwood forests, spatial structure is slower to recover and has not recovered in the even- and uneven-aged northern hardwood forests studied. If management objectives include preserving or restoring the ecological character of the forest, harvesting may need to be altered or delayed predicated on the character of the understory.}, number={5}, journal={ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Scheller, RM and Mladenoff, DJ}, year={2002}, month={Oct}, pages={1329–1343} }
 @article{mladenoff_he_scheller_crow_2001, title={Spatial stimulation of Lake States forest landscape change: Climate warming, disturbance change, and management}, volume={86}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200200265250&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200200265250}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={MLADENOFF, DAVID J. and HE, HONG S. and SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and CROW, THOMAS R.}, year={2001}, pages={161} }
 @article{scheller_mladenoff_2001, title={Species diversity, composition, and spatial patterning of understory plants in old-growth and managed northern hardwood forests}, volume={86}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=BIOSIS&KeyUT=BIOSIS:PREV200200277304&KeyUID=BIOSIS:PREV200200277304}, journal={Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts}, author={SCHELLER, ROBERT M. and MLADENOFF, DAVID J.}, year={2001}, pages={199} }
 @article{scheller_snarski_eaton_oehlert_1999, title={An analysis of the influence of annual thermal variables on the occurrence of fifteen warmwater fishes}, volume={128}, ISSN={["0002-8487"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000081212900004&KeyUID=WOS:000081212900004}, DOI={10.1577/1548-8659(1999)128<0257:aaotio>2.0.co;2}, abstractNote={Multisource fish-sampling data and U.S. Geological Survey temperature data from streams throughout the United States were used to investigate the influence of derived thermal regime variables on the presence or absence of 15 common warmwater fish species. The 3-year average annual thermal regime was calculated for streams where presence or absence was known for these 15 species. Six variables estimated to be of biological importance to the winter and summer survival and recruitment of a species, including measures of feeding and nonfeeding periods, were calculated from these thermal regimes. Stepwise discriminant analysis and multiple regression were used to select optimal variables for creating multivariate models. Parametric and nonparametric multivariate discriminant analyses were then performed to test our ability to correctly classify presence or absence using the thermal variables. These statistical empirical models were able to correctly predict presence or absence with greater than 90% accuracy for 13 of 15 species. Nonparametric (Kth nearest neighbor) analyses had marginally more accurate predictions than parametric (linear) analyses. This technique may allow for an improved estimation of potential changes in distribution under various global warming scenarios.}, number={2}, journal={TRANSACTIONS OF THE AMERICAN FISHERIES SOCIETY}, author={Scheller, RM and Snarski, VM and Eaton, JG and Oehlert, GW}, year={1999}, month={Mar}, pages={257–264} }
 @article{eaton_scheller_1996, title={Effects of climate warming on fish thermal habitat in streams of the United States}, volume={41}, ISSN={["0024-3590"]}, DOI={10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.1109}, abstractNote={The effects of climate warming on the thermal habitat of 57 species of fish of the U.S. were estimated using results for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that were predicted by the Canadian Climate Center general circulation model. Baseline water temperature conditions were calculated from data collected at 1,700 U.S. Geological Survey stream monitoring stations across the U.S. Water temperatures after predicted climate change were obtained by multiplying air temperature changes by 0.9, a factor based on several field studies, and adding them to baseline water temperatures at stations in corresponding grid cells. Results indicated that habitat for cold and cool water fish would be reduced by ∼50%, and that this effect would be distributed throughout the existing range of these species. Habitat losses were greater among species with smaller initial distributions and in geographic regions with the greatest warming (e.g. the central Midwest). Results for warm water fish habitat were less certain because of the poor state of knowledge regarding their high and low temperature tolerances; however, the habitat of many species of this thermal guild likely will also be substantially reduced by climate warming, whereas the habitat of other species will be increased.}, number={5}, journal={LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY}, author={Eaton, JG and Scheller, RM}, year={1996}, month={Jul}, pages={1109–1115} }
 @article{eaton_scheller_1996, title={Effects of climate warming on fish thermal habitat in streams of the United States}, volume={41}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:A1996VN45800034&KeyUID=WOS:A1996VN45800034}, number={5}, journal={Limnology and Oceanography}, author={EATON, JG and SCHELLER, RM}, year={1996}, pages={1109–1115} }
 @article{eaton_mccormick_goodno_obrien_stefany_hondzo_scheller_1995, title={A FIELD INFORMATION-BASED SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING FISH TEMPERATURE TOLERANCES}, volume={20}, ISSN={["0363-2415"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:A1995QR09300003&KeyUID=WOS:A1995QR09300003}, DOI={10.1577/1548-8446(1995)020<0010:afisfe>2.0.co;2}, abstractNote={In 1979, Biesinger et al. described a technique for spatial and temporal matching of records of stream temperatures and fish sampling events to obtain estimates of yearly temperature regimes for freshwater fishes of the United States. This article describes the state of this Fish and Temperature Database Matching System (FTDMS), its usage to estimate thermal requirements for fishes, some proposed maximum temperature tolerances for several freshwater fish species, and the way these FTDMS-derived values relate to various laboratory test results. Although applicable to all species for which collection records exist, initial development and refinement of FTDMS has focused on estimating the maximum weekly mean temperature tolerance for 30 common fishes of the United States. The method involves extensive use of automated data processing during data incorporation, quality assurance checks, data matching, and endpoint calculation. Maximum weekly mean temperatures derived from FTDMS were always less than laboratory-determined lethal temperatures and were similar to temperature criteria obtained from laboratory data through Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) interpolation procedures. The technique is a cost-effective means of generating temperature tolerance estimates for many U.S. fish species (i.e., more than 100).}, number={4}, journal={FISHERIES}, author={EATON, JG and MCCORMICK, JH and GOODNO, BE and OBRIEN, DG and STEFANY, HG and HONDZO, M and SCHELLER, RM}, year={1995}, month={Apr}, pages={10–18} }
 @article{eaton_mccormick_goodno_obrien_stefan_hondzo_scheller_1995, title={A FIELD INFORMATION-BASED SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING FISH TEMPERATURE TOLERANCES (VOL 20, PG 10, 1995)}, volume={20}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:A1995RQ45100015&KeyUID=WOS:A1995RQ45100015}, number={9}, journal={Fisheries}, author={EATON, JG and MCCORMICK, JH and GOODNO, BE and OBRIEN, DG and STEFAN, HG and HONDZO, M and SCHELLER, RM}, year={1995}, pages={56} }