@article{zeytoon nejad moosavian_goodwin_2021, title={Flexible modelling of multivariate risks in pricing margin protection insurance: modelling portfolio risks with mixtures of mixtures}, volume={53}, ISSN={["1466-4283"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036846.2020.1808170}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Margin Protection Programs (MPPs) are relatively new insurance plans, introduced by USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA). The attractiveness of these risk management instruments lies in the fact that the financial stability of agricultural production and farming operations is more dependent on margins than solely revenues, which neglect production costs, as is the case for Revenue Protection Programs (RPPs). This article examines the structure and rating of margin protection insurance policies by considering a broad class of high-dimensional copula models that parameterize the dependence among multivariate sources of risks. A variety of copula methods, including Archimedean Copulas (ACs), Mixture Copulas (MCs), and Vine Copulas (VCs) are used to analyse the dependence structure between revenues and input costs. In terms of methodology, flexible mixtures of parametric distributions are applied to characterize marginal densities, and likewise flexible mixtures of alternative copulas are used to model dependence. This article also argues that the rating methodology that accounts for irregular and anomalous features of dependence such as asymmetry, non-linearity, non-ellipticity, and tail dependence between input prices and output prices can result in more accurate premiums, and therefore, can increase the hedging effectiveness of the MPPs and the market efficiency in the US crop insurance market.}, number={4}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian, Seyyed Ali and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2021}, month={Jan}, pages={411–440} }
 @article{zeytoon nejad moosavian_hammond_goodwin_2020, title={Risk aversion over price variability: experimental evidence}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1466-4291"]}, DOI={10.1080/13504851.2020.1717426}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Eliciting risk attitudes is of crucial importance in economics. We test whether the degree of risk aversion that an individual exhibits in the context of the direct utility function is equivalent to that elicited in the context of the indirect utility function, as implied by duality theory. Our lab experiment uses payoff-based lottery choices (which are based on the direct utility function) and equivalent price-based lottery choices (which are based on the indirect utility function). We reject the equivalence of risk preferences from these two contexts. Subjects are more sensitive to price uncertainty than to equivalent payoff uncertainty.}, number={21}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS}, author={Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian, Seyyed Ali and Hammond, Robert and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2020}, month={Dec}, pages={1739–1745} }